5. Alaska. Obama did better in 2012 in Alaska (although he still lost) than he did in 2008.
Sarah Palin being on the ballot in 2008 was the reason John McCain did well there in 2008.
Democrats have only once in recent times reached 50% of the vote there in high office races (Mark Begich got under 50% winning in 2008, Tony Knowles got only 41% in getting elected and then got 51% in reelection against 3 Republican opponents).
Obama's recent executive order there to put more Alaska land out of use for resource extraction will likely hurt the Democrats even more.