Skill and Chance
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Posts: 12,675
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« on: May 21, 2015, 08:43:10 PM » |
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I think she has the potential to outrun his 2012 numbers in the following areas:
1. Rural Gulf Coast states, most consequentially North Florida
2. Most of Appalachia, but still probably doing worse than Obama 2008 most everywhere
3. Some Northeastern suburbs
4. Possibly suburban VA (NOVA/Henrico/VA Beach) based on McAuliffe
5. Some majority Hispanic areas if her opponent isn't Jeb or Rubio
I think suburban Atlanta will be one of her worst regions vs. Obama, because it is just so sensitive to even a slight drop in black enthusiasm. She probably gets between Obama 2008 and 2012 numbers with Hispanics. Republicans aren't exactly reaching out, but they know to be more careful than "self-deportation" now.
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