State Legislatures and Redistricting

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The strongest seat for Obama won by a Republican I can find in Minnesota is 57A which was open and gave Obama 56.57%. Obviously the guy who won it is probably doomed in 2012 unless it changes hugely in redistricting.

[cinyc]

Today is the last day for non-military absentees to arrive in New York.  Military absentees can trickle in until November 15.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

HD-86 in Virginia is held by a Republican; it went 62-37 for Obama. There was also that district in Delaware that went Republican in a special election right after the election, but the Dems won it back this year.

[Nichlemn]

Optimal redistricting is interesting from a game theoretic perspective. If John Boehner could draw every district, he'd want to draw about 220 safe Republican districts and about 215 safe Democratic districts (a bare majority plus a couple extra for security against scandals/localised swings). If you're redistricting only Texas, though, your incentives are different. Since other states will be Democratic/non-partisan gerrymanders, and many of the Republican gerrymanders are in states are less Republican, you need to draw a decidedly Republican map. But how ambitious it should be is not obvious. People cite 2006 and 2008 as examples of ambitious Republican gerrymandering failing in many states, but a good gerrymander should not be infallible. There is not as much value in the difference between 200 and 210 seats as there is between 210 and 220, so it's worth weakening your 210th best seat to shore up the 220th.

[Brittain33]

People cite 2006 and 2008 as examples of ambitious Republican gerrymandering failing in many states, but a good gerrymander should not be infallible.

Yes. One thing we've seen this decade, depressing as it may be, is that gerrymanders generally don't backfire and will hold up across time. They will hold except in the case of overwhelming pressure for the other party, and then can just as easily go back to the planned outcome. People talked about Georgia backfiring in 2002 or Pennsylvania doing so in 2006, but they functioned as planned, up to a certain level of partisan change or partisan wave.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Where can I find who won the majority in the state legislatures of all states?

[rbt48]

Try looking here:
http://www.ncsl.org/tabid/21253/default.aspx

[CARLHAYDEN]

Pretty good article on Gerrymandering:

http://pajamasmedia.com/zombie/2010/11/10/gerrymandering-101/

[Nichlemn]

Pretty good article on Gerrymandering:

http://pajamasmedia.com/zombie/2010/11/10/gerrymandering-101/

Pretty ridiculous to claim that the current maps favour Democrats on net.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The only significant states where the Dems had the trifecta in 2000 were Alabama, California (irrelevant, since they just did an incumbent protection map), Georgia (undone in 2005), Maryland, and North Carolina. The Republicans had Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

[Skill and Chance]

The only significant states where the Dems had the trifecta in 2000 were Alabama, California (irrelevant, since they just did an incumbent protection map), Georgia (undone in 2005), Maryland, and North Carolina. The Republicans had Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

How in the world did they get that Indiana map past Republicans who had a say?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The only significant states where the Dems had the trifecta in 2000 were Alabama, California (irrelevant, since they just did an incumbent protection map), Georgia (undone in 2005), Maryland, and North Carolina. The Republicans had Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

How in the world did they get that Indiana map past Republicans who had a say?

They didn't. Democrats held the trifecta in Indiana.

[Mr.Phips]

The only significant states where the Dems had the trifecta in 2000 were Alabama, California (irrelevant, since they just did an incumbent protection map), Georgia (undone in 2005), Maryland, and North Carolina. The Republicans had Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

How in the world did they get that Indiana map past Republicans who had a say?

They didn't. Democrats held the trifecta in Indiana.

Actually, Republicans had the state Senate and the legislature couldnt agree to a map, so the Lt. Governor(a Democrat) got to pick the map. 

[CatoMinor]

Have any of the toss up NY senate races been called yet?

[Kevinstat]

Can the New York State Senate (and the New York State Assembly) redistrict itself without requiring the approval of either the other chamber or the Governor?

Even if so, I imagine a Republican NY State Senate couldn't undo the change in how prisoners are counted (even just for State Senate districts) on their own so if they just scraped by with a Senate majority at the end of this era of Senate districts then I see the Democrats gaining control of the chamber for good by the middle of this decade (by the legislative inaugaration after the 2014 elections), if not earlier.  The Republicans' best bet might be to make the, say, 25th and 28th most Republican State Senate district as Republican as possible (a two-layer defense against obscurity; 25 and 28 Republicans would be 40% and 45% of a 62-member Senate) and hope the Democrats will not bother to redraw the districts after they regain control in 2012 than try to gerrymander their way to another decade of control and end up with less than a third of the seats in the State Senate by 2021.

[Brittain33]

Given the state of the N.Y. Senate, the Dems should be at least trying to woo one Republican senator over to their side with the promise of a safe district and some power.

[Nichlemn]

Given the state of the N.Y. Senate, the Dems should be at least trying to woo one Republican senator over to their side with the promise of a safe district and some power.

Couldn't Republicans do just the same?

[Brittain33]

Given the state of the N.Y. Senate, the Dems should be at least trying to woo one Republican senator over to their side with the promise of a safe district and some power.

Couldn't Republicans do just the same?

Redistricting and NY's demographics are going to make it difficult to hold their majority in the long term, even if they get another shot to draw the maps for their chamber. The long-term stock for NY Republicans is about as good as that of Mississippi Democrats. Life in the minority in either chamber of the NY legislature is dismal, too.

[Nichlemn]

Given the state of the N.Y. Senate, the Dems should be at least trying to woo one Republican senator over to their side with the promise of a safe district and some power.

Couldn't Republicans do just the same?

Redistricting and NY's demographics are going to make it difficult to hold their majority in the long term, even if they get another shot to draw the maps for their chamber. The long-term stock for NY Republicans is about as good as that of Mississippi Democrats. Life in the minority in either chamber of the NY legislature is dismal, too.

I am not sure this makes a huge amount of difference for a self-interested legislator. Even if they're inevitably in the minority within the next decade, the short term gains of what the Republicans can offer might outweigh the long term benefits. In addition, the fact that the Republicans know their majority is unlikely to last the long term might allow them to make crazier deals that Democrats, with their long term interests to look after, would be less inclined to do.

[Kevinstat]

Although Maine currently redistricts after years ending in a 2, might they change the law to do it early this time? First and foremost, Maine Republicans will want to protect their own majorities and could do so with gerrymandering. [...] Finally, it's easy for them to justify as "synchronising with other states".

My reply:

Legislative redistricting in Maine before 2013 (and legislative redistricting in Maine done by the Legislature without 2/3 support in each chamber, which the Republicans don't have), would require a state constitutional amendment, which itself requires a 2/3 vote in each house of the Legislature.

Well, the reason they don't do it in time for 2012 is that with their strange (and short) sessions and very early primary filing deadlines, they don't really have time do it in time for 2012.

My reply:

The Statutory adjournment date of the odd-year regular session of the Maine Legislature is now the third Wednesday in June.  How much later than that do odd-year regular sessions adjourn in most states?

It wouldn't be *impossible*, certainly not for two federal districts that aren't going to be gerrymandered anyways, but if the necessary law change hasn't happened before the 2010 election it won't happen in time to affect this redistricting cycle.

My reply: The change didn't happen last year (the bipartisan bill Dan the Roman mentioned to do that for Maine's legislative redistricting failed) because it would have moved the associated costs with redistricting (Maine has an advisory commission which uses, as far as I can tell, expensive taxpayer-funded computer software) into the fiscal biennium the Legislature at the time was responsible for making the budget for, and there was already a huge shortfall.  A new congressional and county commissioner district plan could be adopted next year like ordinary law with the established funds for bill drafting and the like being all the funding that is requiered.  See my quote below from another current thread.

There are similar statutory provisions for congressional and county commissioner redistricting in Maine, but the relevent sections, subsections, and whatnot could be amended or "notwithstood" by a law enacting new plans for those districts which could be passed and signed by the Governor as easily as "normal" legislation.  I could see the Republicans redrawing Maine's congressional districts next year, but I could easily see them deciding not to risk negative PR on an early (based on current Maine law, which should have been fixed long ago regarding the timing of redistricting) and partisan redistricting.

Since making that post late last night (or very early this morning), I received the following e-mail reply from a Maine Republican insider or "semi-insider" who has been discussing much of this with me (he was the one I believe gathered up a lot of the Republican support for the bipartisan bill Dan the Roman and I have mentioned):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I had discussed the possibility of a Democratic congressional/county commissioner redistricting in 2015 if the Democrats were in complete control by then if the Republicans had rammed through a plan in 2011.  I assume from his statement that Minority Democrats (in the Legislature) would have a good reason to vote for such a change that the 2/3 in each chamber vote requirement in the Maine Constitution for the Legislature to adopt a State House or State Senate redistricting plan in Maine would be included in the new state constitutional provisions for congressional and county commissioner redistricting (the current 2/3 vote requirements for those redistrictings are only in statute which as I mentioned above could be amended or "notwithstood" (disregarded in regards to whatever is being done "notwithstanding" that section, subsection, etc. but retaining its effect elsewhere)).  This e-mail suggests to me that the Republicans in Maine may not be nearly as partisan next year with respect to redistricting as Nichlemn suggests they might be.

[Frodo]

Update: With LA state rep. Walker Hines switching parties, the Louisiana legislature is now split, with Republicans now having a one-vote lead in the Louisiana House.

With the 2010 elections out of the way (for the most part), which of the following chambers does anyone here see switching parties in 2011?

Louisiana Senate (D: 22, R: 16, I: 1)
Louisiana House (R: 51, D: 50, I: 4)

Mississippi Senate (D: 26, R: 24)
Mississippi House (D: 72, R: 50)

Virginia Senate (D: 22, R: 18)
Virginia House (R: 59, D: 39, I: 2)

New Jersey Senate (D: 23, R: 17)
New Jersey House (D: 47, R: 33)

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Also, would anyone happen to know how many white Democrats will still represent conservative to moderate conservative districts in legislatures throughout the South after January?  

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I don't want to go through all the state legislatures, but I just looked at the Alabama Senate, and the Democratic caucus is now 8 black members, 4 whites. Only one of the white members won easily this year, he has a seat that's partially in the black belt. Interestingly, one of the African-American members is a freshman who was elected to a white-majority area in the NW corner of the state.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That Louisiana party switcher is quite odd. You'd assume he was a Dixiecrat from some part of the state that hasn't voted Dem in forever, but he actually represents this district. He's probably losing next time.

[Torie]

That Louisiana party switcher is quite odd. You'd assume he was a Dixiecrat from some part of the state that hasn't voted Dem in forever, but he actually represents this district. He's probably losing next time.

More chat about the party switcher is here.  The 95th district does not look all that Dem to me, but I could be wrong. That party of New Orleans is kind of complicated, as the Garden District begins and ends somewhere in or near it.

[cinyc]

Given the state of the N.Y. Senate, the Dems should be at least trying to woo one Republican senator over to their side with the promise of a safe district and some power.

Couldn't Republicans do just the same?

Redistricting and NY's demographics are going to make it difficult to hold their majority in the long term, even if they get another shot to draw the maps for their chamber. The long-term stock for NY Republicans is about as good as that of Mississippi Democrats. Life in the minority in either chamber of the NY legislature is dismal, too.

Reports of the NY Republican demise are greatly exaggerated.  If they can win back the suburbs, they will retain control of the State Senate through the decade.  That rebuilding process began in 2009 and continued to grow in 2010. 

Whether it can continue in the future is an open question, but if Cuomo turns out to be as bad a governor as I expect him to be, it very well may.  The key to state-level politics will be the growing chasm between private and public sector salaries and benefits.  Most Democrats are far too beholden to the public sector to be on the right side of that fight, especially Democrats who were also backed by the Working Families Party (a.k.a. unions, especially the public employee unions).  AG-elect Schneiderman certainly is on the wrong side - and he and Sheldon Silver will be two huge thorns in Cuomo's side, even if he claims not to be as influenced by the public employee unions.