US-Canada County Maps Thread

[Benj]

A lot of Native American counties seem to be very heavily Catholic. Is that really true?* I thought Protestant groups had the greatest penetration on most Reservations (though to my understanding the incidence of non-religion is also high, and a significant number, though not anywhere a majority, follow revivals of traditional beliefs).

*Less surprised about First Nations in Canada, as my understanding is local religion is heavily influenced by the French via the Metis.

[Benj]

If I can find industry data, I'll update the model. The data needs to be the same for the US and Canada for it to work though. Atlantic Canada did seem odd, but the model had it being so Romney friendly due to low education, low incomes, low French population, low population densities, and a dearth of minorities.

Industry might work, but you could also do comparison of demographics within identifiable regions. The demographics of Atlantic Canada are basically identical to those of Maine (and similar demographics elsewhere in New England also vote solidly Democratic).

[Benj]

Incorporating that data (or 2011 data if it's available) would definitely help solve the problem. Not entirely to determine the results, of course, but maybe as around 30% of the weight.

Something like assuming 85% of NDP/Green voters, 70% of Bloc voters, 60% of Liberal voters and 20% of Conservative voters would vote Democratic (and the rest Republican). Not perfect (an enormous portion of Chinese-Canadian Conservative voters would vote Democratic, for example), but it would help fix obviously wrong assumptions about Vancouver Island, Atlantic Canada and Northern Ontario.