UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Zinneke]

How do you rate Naomi Long's chances of retaining her seat?

[Zinneke]

How do you rate Naomi Long's chances of retaining her seat?

A good deal less than 50:50, thanks to Fleggate and the efforts of Loyalist paramilitaries in cahoots with the two main Unionist parties to get rid of her. It's the one seat in Northern Ireland which is likely to shift next time.

Only possible fly in the ointment would be if TUV were to stand as a fleggier-than-thou spoiler.

Fleggate?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fc5L5p6aYyM

Nationalist proposal to take the Union jack down from city hall was approved by Alliance (largely unionist but non-secterian) in order to give them a majority.

[Zinneke]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-2788816/Bullish-Ukip-swoops-Kent-target.html

Shock poll, UKIP at 25%, Labour and Conservatives both at 31%, Lib Dems at 8%

"Experts suggest that the ratings would give Labour 253 MPs, Conservatives 187, Ukip 128, Lib Dems 11, and other parties, such as the SNP, 71."

I'm going to go ahead and assume this is a joke. A low mobilisation of Labour and Tory stalwarts is the only thing capable of making UKIP the kingmakers in British Parliament. The turnout will be the same as last election, and I think in Scotland and Wales it will actually go up.

Ukip will be hugely under-represented because of first past the post. Could be a watershed moment in British politics.

Can't wait for the TV debates. Will the Greens be invited I wonder? 

[Zinneke]

It is unusual for the UK Labour Party to win power in general.

In the last hundred years, they have won a working majority that lasted throughout the parliamentary term in only five out of 25 elections. The Conservatives did so ten times, and won overall majorities an extra three times but took smaller parties into government regardless. Labour won three minorities and three unworkably-small majorities that required another election or Liberal support after a few years. The final case is the current government, the first time Conservatives went into government with a minority of seats since the days of their Liberal Unionist allies.

Five is a very small data set, but it is striking that Tony Blair accounts for the majority of effective, single-party Labour government. Therefore, do not underestimate what it takes for Labour to win a majority in the UK.

I thought it was well established by political scientist that it was now Labour that had the most chance of becoming the party of government after the Tory crisis in 1997-2003. What they didn't take into account was the SNP. Other than that if you count safe seats + marginals that tend towards Labour they have an easier road to election victory than the Tories, as 2010 demostrated. I don't think you'll see a Tory absolute majority until 10-20 years.

[Zinneke]

Is Galloway heading for another Labour counter-attack in a GE or can he redo what he did in Bethnall Green? Who is the likely candidate to replace him?

[Zinneke]

Is Galloway heading for another Labour counter-attack in a GE or can he redo what he did in Bethnall Green? Who is the likely candidate to replace him?

There is little information about Bradford West abroad, though there are lots of Yorkshire delegates here whou might know.

You wouldn't just need to be from Yorkshire (or even Bradford) to know, you'd need to be from the Mirpuri Pakistani community in Bradford...

Galloway won the election openly condemning such tribalist politics. He might even have attracted white middle class votes from that stance. I imagine Labour have learned their lesson.

[Zinneke]

Galloway won the election openly condemning such tribalist politics. He might even have attracted white middle class votes from that stance. I imagine Labour have learned their lesson.

Ahahaha, yeah, right. What he actually did (and quite brilliantly) was use clan politics while also loudly condemning it. In his own very, very specific way he may actually be a genius (e.g. he claimed to be a better Muslim than his (Muslim) opponent despite not actually being a Muslim. It was a devastatingly successful personal attack).

He sort of towed a pan-Muslim or pan-Religious line. Don't get me wrong for me Galloway is a violent social reactionary, but he is right when he says he won wards in Bradford that were not majority Musim, and that by and large he erased tribal politics that would have present under Imran Hussein.

Tower Hamlets is another story though.