2008 Senate Outlook vol. 1

[Sam Spade]

Pretty good, though the following corrections need to be made.  None of the changes take into account "potential" retirements FYI.

South Carolina should be in Likely, but only for the possibility of a primary challenger.

I am loathe to put Saxby in Likely, mainly b/c he has correctly taken a hard right turn against the Immigration Bill, but leaving him there is ok.

I don't trust Alaska polling, henceforth my feelings are the same about Stevens.

North Carolina is on the edge between Lean and Likely.

If Al Franken or Mike Ciresi is the nominee in Minnesota, that state should be in Lean R.

Virginia is such that if Warner runs, it's Likely R, maybe even Safe.  If he doesn't, Toss-up until we know the candidates.

Louisiana is a correct call, except if the GOP gets a good candidate and that may well happen. (or it may not)

Colorado is your main flaw and should be in toss-up.  Udall is too liberal for the state to be Lean D at best (and yes I know the Udall family history).  Schraeder is not that weak of a candidate, either, just FYI.

My gut wants to say New Jersey in Safe.

South Dakota should be at least in Likely, maybe Lean, depends on what Johnson does.

All these other Safe Rs, safe Ds could move down depending on retirements or challengers.  We'll see.

[Sam Spade]

Another thing:  All of these opinions are subject to change based on polling and intuition. 

[Sam Spade]

I keep meaning to put up my list for 2008, but I've been waiting on the hope better candidates for some of these races will enter.

Barnes in 2002 lost b/c of a flag StatesRights and I respect greatly, lest people forget (and an excellent Ralph Reed ground game)

PS: Inhofe is safe. A 60% approval doesn't lie (unless it's contradicted by another poll)