Scottish independence referendum 2017?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

If it's framed as "Do we want to leave the UK to remain in the EU" I expect it'll pass handily. The last one was a vote for upheaval, this is a vote for status quo.

[Slow Learner]

A recent poll has support for a second referendum at 37%, fyi.

[Phony Moderate]

We don't even know whether the EU would be willing to accept an independent Scotland as a member do we?

[Slow Learner]

We don't even know whether the EU would be willing to accept an independent Scotland as a member do we?

Rajoy would be very keen on preventing that from happening.

[Pandaguineapig]

I feel like this is an attempt to get leverage for the negotiations in article 50. Actually doing a second referendum is risky as a second loss in such a short time span could cripple the scottish nationalist movement for a generation.

[Beezer]

If it's framed as "Do we want to leave the UK to remain in the EU" I expect it'll pass handily. The last one was a vote for upheaval, this is a vote for status quo.

Well, it won't be framed that way since the EU has already stated in no uncertain terms that Scotland would have to reapply for membership. And that means Scotland is by no means assured EU membership.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm going to say this is unlikely, but when I remember the disaster that was Better Together I can pretty much imagine Scotland falling out, even when the contradictions of left-wing parties deciding to form a new petrostate in the current climate become more obvious.

[IceAgeComing]

We don't even know whether the EU would be willing to accept an independent Scotland as a member do we?

Rajoy would be very keen on preventing that from happening.

The theory at this point seems to be to try to have a successful referendum vote happen before the Article 50 negotiations happen, so that Scotland retaining its UK membership would be part of an Article 50 deal which would allow Spain to vote against without blocking Scottish EU membership, which would be the best of both worlds.

[Clyde1998]

tl;dr version:
Scotland cannot join the Eurozone on independence.

Would an independent Scotland use the British pound?

I hope not. I didn't support that plan in 2014 and I don't now. I would prefer to have our own currency - initially pegged 1:1 with Sterling, to enable Sterling to still be accepted in Scotland for a period of time (much like Ireland used to have). After a period of time, probably a couple of years, the currency would become floating.

A recent poll has support for a second referendum at 37%, fyi.

To be fair, the question didn't make sense:

If a referendum were held tomorrow, on whether Scotland should leave or remain a member of the United Kingdom, how would you vote? (Excluding Undecided Voters)
To leave the United Kingdom: 45.3%
To remain in the United Kingdom: 54.7%

Any referendum question is almost certainly going to be the same as the 2014 question ("Should Scotland be an independent country?"), IMO, as that question was chosen by the Electoral Commission.

The question used in the poll doesn't actually ask about independence and there is no "membership" of the United Kingdom. At least when YouGov used to ask some convoluted question, such as this, they mentioned independence in the question - once they started asking the referendum question, support for independence rose in their polls.

The polls that ask the 2014 referendum question are averaging around 48% for independence; 52% against.

Additionally, polls don't really mean much when people aren't debating the issue like they are during a campaign. It's likely that the 'Yes' side would have differences from the 2014 proposal - such as the currency proposal and there would be less opposition from business leaders to Scotland becoming independent, if they're seeking to join the EU. I believe that the 'Yes' side will win any referendum held in the next couple of years.

We don't even know whether the EU would be willing to accept an independent Scotland as a member do we?

It's dependent on what the other 27 members want. If Scotland attempts to join the EU as part of the Article 50 negotiations, only 2/3rds of countries would have to accept the proposal - I don't know if ten countries would oppose Scotland's membership.

France, Germany and Spain are going to have elections in the coming year (Spain might not, but it seems likely) - which may effect the ability of Scotland to retain EU membership. If Spain elects a non-Rajoy led Government, then I can't see Spain vetoing an application from Scotland; particularly if it's a Podemos-led Government (who, IIRC, support a Catalan referendum).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Has anybody polled Scotland on "Do you want Scotland to be independent in your lifetime?"

That might separate the "no" voters between soft nationalists and true unionists, and clairify a few things for me.

[parochial boy]

The economic question is going to be a major barrier to a "Yes" vote the next time round.

If it, as is generally accepted, true that the Yes campaign lost as a result of failing to make convincing enough economic argument; then it is going to be much harder for them this time round with oil prices having fallen through the floor and having opened up a major budget deficit in Scotland. No campaigners will also point out the Scotland is far more dependent on trade with the rest of the UK than with the EU.

This, of course, assumes that Scottish voters are more rational than English ones - and the collapse of the GBP this week will have given Scotland an effective 15% bump in oil revenues, since oil is sold in dollars.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Scotland has (and not for the first time in its modern history) a serious structural economic adjustment looming. It won't really hit for a while but it will hit and planning for it ought to be a priority. Particularly given the failure to do so last time round.

[Beezer]

Is it happening?

Sturgeon: ‘Intransigent’ May to blame for second Scottish referendum

Theresa May’s government’s lack of flexibility in Brexit negotiations will be responsible for Scotland’s second independence referendum if it does arise, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said in a Times op-ed published Tuesday.

Sturgeon, the leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), accused May of refusing to address her country’s concerns in preparing for Britain’s exit from the EU. While she did not officially call for a second vote, Sturgeon said it would be justified.

“The SNP was re-elected to government with more votes and seats than Labour and the Tories combined. So as well as justification for a referendum, there is also a cast-iron mandate,” Sturgeon wrote.

The op-ed was published a day after a Times report claimed May’s government was preparing for the SNP to demand another independence referendum. The report expected the call to coincide with May’s decision to trigger Article 50 next month.

...

http://www.politico.eu/article/nicola-sturgeon-intransigent-may-to-blame-for-second-scottish-referendum/

[Beezer]

Guess Edinburgh is the Athens of the North after all...

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[Beezer]

It's habbening. Sturgeon announces second referendum if there's a hard brexit.

[jeron]

It's habbening. Sturgeon announces second referendum if there's a hard brexit.

Not in 2017 though, but somewhere between autumn 2018 and spring 2019. There seems to be little room to avoid a referendum now

[Clyde1998]

Autumn 2018 or Spring 2019 referendum. My Twitter feed has exploded with excitement.

[Clyde1998]

The SNP have already set up a website for the referendum - www.ref.scot - with a donation target of £1 million. There's very, very little chance of there not being a referendum now; unless the UK Government decides to block it...

[Cassius]

So... lets get this straight - Sturgeon is launching a campaign to secede from the UK on the basis of the UK withdrawing from the EU... in order to 'protect' Scotland from Brexit, in spite of the fact that we are a much bigger trading partner for Scotland and are far more closely legally entwined with them than we are with the EU. All this amidst Scotland's oil revenues circling the drain, Scottish support for independence lukewarm and the continued presence of Mariano Rajoy, no fan of Scottish independence, at the helm of the Spanish government. Remind me again how the SNP are the sensible level-headed pragmatists here.

[Clyde1998]

So... lets get this straight - Sturgeon is launching a campaign to secede from the UK on the basis of the UK withdrawing from the EU... in order to 'protect' Scotland from Brexit, in spite of the fact that we are a much bigger trading partner for Scotland and are far more closely legally entwined with them than we are with the EU. All this amidst Scotland's oil revenues circling the drain, Scottish support for independence lukewarm and the continued presence of Mariano Rajoy, no fan of Scottish independence, at the helm of the Spanish government. Remind me again how the SNP are the sensible level-headed pragmatists here.

The SNP were elected in May on a manifesto commitment to hold a referendum on independence in the event that the UK votes to leave the EU and Scotland votes remain. Scotland voted 62% to remain in the EU, the SNP made it clear that they wouldn't hold a referendum if the UK Government kept Scotland in the European Single Market - which doesn't look like it's going to happen.

The UK Government has said that they are going to retain all powers that the EU currently have once Brexit occurs, including farming and fishing - which are devolved issues. With the UK Government considering taking powers from the Scottish Parliament, it's a road that the SNP have been forced down.

Scotland does less trade with the rUK than official figures state, in my opinion. A sizeable percentage of Scottish exports to England would be to ports for shipping elsewhere in the world - similar to how the UK does a large amount of trade with the Netherlands in official trade figures. Trade figures take into account the next destination, rather than the final destination.

In the previous financial year, while oil revenues saw a huge drop - overall revenues in Scotland only fell 1%, as the reduction in oil price was offset by revenue increases in other industries that require oil to operate - such as transport. In such industries a low oil price is beneficial. The only reason the deficit increased was due to increased spending. Pretending that the Scottish economy is a one dimensional 'banana republic' isn't a position that you should take. Additionally, if Scottish independence occurs at around the same time as the UK leaving the EU, then there's a chance that UK-based headquarters could move to Scotland for an EU base - which would increase taxation intake. This is especially as apparently Dublin has been considered by some.

The last opinion poll on the subject, a Ipsos Mori poll for STV, put support for independence at 47%, compared to 46% for the union - others undecided. Other polls put support at between 43% & 44% when including undecided voters. The support when the previous referendum was called, around 30%, pales in comparison to the support now. Given that the result was radically different to the polling when the referendum was called, it's fair to say that the current support for it is irrelevant anyway.

On Spain, no-one in the Spanish Government has ever said that they'd veto Scotland's membership of the European Union. It's no secret that the Spanish Government doesn't support independence for Scotland, but they've never said they'd oppose it if it happens.

[Phony Moderate]

Will be interesting (even more so than usual) to compare voting patterns with IndyRef1.

Also, got to love how Theresa May constantly expresses surprise and outrage that the Scottish National Party wants Scottish independence.

[Mike88]

On Spain, no-one in the Spanish Government has ever said that they'd veto Scotland's membership of the European Union. It's no secret that the Spanish Government doesn't support independence for Scotland, but they've never said they'd oppose it if it happens.

Exactly, Spain is not against an membership of Scotland to the EU, however, i believe Spain wouldn't approve an independent Scotland to have an automatic membership to the EU. If they want to be in the EU by their own right, they must go to the back of the line.

Also, just imagine if David Cameron, when calling the referendum, had established that the only way the UK could leave the EU was if all 4 countries of the UK voted Leave....

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just a quick note as to procedures: Scottish Government cannot actually call a referendum. It's up to the May Government to decide if it wants one or not. Either way, of course, welcome to yet another dumpster fire.

[Clyde1998]

On Spain, no-one in the Spanish Government has ever said that they'd veto Scotland's membership of the European Union. It's no secret that the Spanish Government doesn't support independence for Scotland, but they've never said they'd oppose it if it happens.

Exactly, Spain is not against an membership of Scotland to the EU, however, i believe Spain wouldn't approve an independent Scotland to have an automatic membership to the EU. If they want to be in the EU by their own right, they must go to the back of the line.

Also, just imagine if David Cameron, when calling the referendum, had established that the only way the UK could leave the EU was if all 4 countries of the UK voted Leave....

I'm certain Scotland would have to re-apply for membership in someway, although there's no line as such - otherwise no-one would've joined the EEC/EU since Turkey first applied in 1987. It's possible that Scotland could renegotiate membership of the EU between a 'Yes' vote and the date independence is completed.

The England edition of The Times today have reported on their front page that "Spain, Belgium, Italy, Greece, Cyprus and Slovakia could veto special treatment for Scotland". I'm not 100% sure what they're implying with that statement - as it could refer to a special treatment if Scotland votes for independence or for Scotland within the UK.

The big issue that most countries have after applying is adapting to meet EU requirements, while Scotland (I assume, at least) already meets the requirements as part of the UK. Which would imply that Scotland would get back into the EU at some point quite soon after independence at the latest (assuming that no-one does veto).

Just a quick note as to procedures: Scottish Government cannot actually call a referendum. It's up to the May Government to decide if it wants one or not. Either way, of course, welcome to yet another dumpster fire.

The British Government are damned if they do, damned if they don't. May's career would be over if she loses a referendum that she agrees too, but it will harden (although not necessarily grow) support for independence to block something that the Scottish Parliament has voted for - possibly leading to a Catalan situation.
In related news, Sinn Fein called for a Border Poll (referendum on Irish reunification) in Northern Ireland yesterday, while Plaid Cymru called for a Welsh Independence vote if Scotland leaves the UK. Brexit's going well - and it technically hasn't begun yet...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Strong indications that the answer from the May government will be 'no'.