Iowa:
GOP
Huckabee 18%
Perry 17%
Bush 15%
Paul 14%
Christie 12%
someone else 24%
New Hampshire:
GOP
Bush 22%
Paul 21%
Christie 15%
Huckabee 10%
Perry 4%
someone else 29%
South Carolina:
GOP
Huckabee 20%
Bush 18%
Christie 12%
Paul 12%
Perry 11%
someone else 28%
Basically what this means is that the three moderates would beat the two conservative options in every early state, even if just barely in Iowa. Let's add their percentages together:
Iowa:
Bush+Paul+Christie: 41%
Huckabee+Perry: 35%
New Hampshire:
Bush+Paul+Christie: 58%
Huckabee+Perry: 14%
(not even close)
South Carolina:
Bush+Christie+Paul: 42%
Huckabee+Perry: 31%
Now that's interesting and cuts against the conventional widsom of most pundits' and lay people's opinions.
