KY Senate Race 2014: Getting lucky in Kentucky

[morgieb]

If Mcconnell could lose his primary...

McConnell would probably be easier to beat than Bevin tbh. He strikes me as a stronger candidate than your average Tea Partier.

Best goal is for Bevin to come close, but fail. Leaves McConnell battered and wounded, and looking vulnerable.

[RogueBeaver]

Bevin raised a grand total of $222k when self-funding is subtracted. Game changer.

[PolitiJunkie]

If Mcconnell could lose his primary...

McConnell would probably be easier to beat than Bevin tbh. He strikes me as a stronger candidate than your average Tea Partier.

Best goal is for Bevin to come close, but fail. Leaves McConnell battered and wounded, and looking vulnerable.

Exactly...basically what I just said.

[RogueBeaver]

SCF endorses Bevin.

[Brittain33]

SCF endorses Bevin.

Will Cruz endorse Bevin?

[RogueBeaver]

CFG has said nice things about both.

[hurricanehink]

http://cookpolitical.com/senate/charts/race-ratings

Not sure if it was mentioned, but the Cook report now lists this as a tossup.

[Morning in Atlas]

[RogueBeaver]

Bevin interview.

[publicunofficial]

Top 3 Fundraisers in Q3:

Alison Lundergan Grimes (D-KY) - $2,527,000
Mitch McConnell (R-KY) - $2,269,000
Al Franken (D-MN) - $2,083,000


That's some impressive numbers for Grimes, especially if you look at the burn rate.

Of Grimes' $2,527,000, she has spent $536K. Of McConnell's $2,269,000, his campaign has spent $2,082,000. If that continues for the next 1-2 quarters, Grimes will likely have more Cash on Hand by the time the election rolls around, erasing McConnell's money advantage.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AK, GA and MnT should be tossups too.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Top 3 Fundraisers in Q3:

Alison Lundergan Grimes (D-KY) - $2,527,000
Mitch McConnell (R-KY) - $2,269,000
Al Franken (D-MN) - $2,083,000


That's some impressive numbers for Grimes, especially if you look at the burn rate.

Of Grimes' $2,527,000, she has spent $536K. Of McConnell's $2,269,000, his campaign has spent $2,082,000. If that continues for the next 1-2 quarters, Grimes will likely have more Cash on Hand by the time the election rolls around, erasing McConnell's money advantage.

We saw the same thing in 2012 with Obama For America spending big early on GOTV, ground work, and campaign ads. McConnell might be doing the same thing. Grimes needs to go on the air early to define herself before Senator McConnell does it himself. She's got the money, and is guaranteed to make millions more in the next year. There no downside to spending big and early.

[Mehmentum]

Top 3 Fundraisers in Q3:

Alison Lundergan Grimes (D-KY) - $2,527,000
Mitch McConnell (R-KY) - $2,269,000
Al Franken (D-MN) - $2,083,000


That's some impressive numbers for Grimes, especially if you look at the burn rate.

Of Grimes' $2,527,000, she has spent $536K. Of McConnell's $2,269,000, his campaign has spent $2,082,000. If that continues for the next 1-2 quarters, Grimes will likely have more Cash on Hand by the time the election rolls around, erasing McConnell's money advantage.

We saw the same thing in 2012 with Obama For America spending big early on GOTV, ground work, and campaign ads. McConnell might be doing the same thing. Grimes needs to go on the air early to define herself before Senator McConnell does it himself. She's got the money, and is guaranteed to make millions more in the next year. There no downside to spending big and early.

McConnell might also be spending for his primary.

[RogueBeaver]

Bevin NYT interview.

[RogueBeaver]

Another tax volley aimed at Bevin.

[Brittain33]

Grimes hits McConnell hard with a web ad.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/28/alison-lundergan-grimes-ad_n_4169609.html

She's a pretty remarkable candidate to come across so likable and positive while dishing up attacks like this.

[RogueBeaver]

Rothenberg thinks McConnell should be more worried about the primary. Ideally keep Bevin under 33%, but under 40 no matter what. I'll be curious to see if Bevin manages to catch any grassroots fire given how paltry his fundraising's been. Also curious to see if McConnell agrees to debate Bevin at any point. I doubt it.

[windjammer]

Honestly, I don't see Bevin under 30%.
But his biggest problem I guess is voter registration:

7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If an independent or identify with
another party, press 3.
Democrat 53% ........................................................
Republican 37% ......................................................
 11% Independent/Other..................................


So thr KY Republican party has probably strong tea party ties.

And an another for Mcconnell:
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Tea Party?
Favorable 41% ........................................................
Unfavorable 42% ....................................................
Not sure 17%
And it's not just the Republican party, it's the state.



So, he will survive I guess, but he should be worried, Bevin could easily rise. Honestly, I think he will get 40%.

[RogueBeaver]

McConnell: I broker deals and get bipartisan praise/criticism, she's the blind partisan. He's clearly not that worried about the primary.

[IceSpear]

McConnell: I broker deals and get bipartisan praise/criticism, she's the blind partisan. He's clearly not that worried about the primary.

I wonder why. Like Rothenberg said, it's not like Joe Miller, Christine O'Donnell, or Richard Mourdock were serious opponents, yet they beat politicians that were institutions in their states. And Bevin seems stronger than all of the aforementioned nutters were.

[windjammer]

Hmmmmm, he has probably a reason. He's far to be stupid.

[RogueBeaver]

Bevin doesn't seem to be catching grassroots fire. You can see it in the fundraising numbers where nearly all the money is his own. Granted that he may catch fire closer to primary day, say March or April. But if he can't harness the shutdown deal, what can he harness?

[windjammer]

Good news!!!!

[badgate]

Good news!!!!

Fixed.

[BM]

I just donated $5,200 to her campaign. 2014 election season has officially begun and I want her to win more than anyone.