Sabato: Governors 2017-2018: The Democrats' Complicated Path to Big Gains

[pbrower2a]

The poor favorability rating for Scott Walker (R, WI) at 40-53 suggests that he could be set up for a tumble in 2018. Effective campaigning is good enough to cause most incumbent Governors and Senators with approval ratings of 43% to get half the vote, but the chance of winning rises rapidly or falls rapidly (47% approval means about a 95% chance of winning and 40% approval gives about a 95% chance of losing) as one gets away from 43%.

The 6-7% increase in vote share from early approval rating reflects that for an incumbent Governor or Senator, approval ratings drop significantly once one starts governing or legislating (about 6-7%) as one gets out of campaign mode and starts disappointing people with votes and policies. But one can campaign for re-election.

Someone in Wisconsin might be able to tell me what can go right for him between now and April of next year, let alone how well he can campaign on boilerplate reaction in a state in which Trump won (barely) but seems likely to pull any Republican incumbent down.

But this is new data. Larry Sabato would likely agree with me on this