The absentee/early vote thread

[Crumpets]

Iowa absentee ballot stats as of 10/3

RIP Dem hopes in IA.

It should be noted, though, that Obama won Iowa by about 92,000 votes in 2012. So at least the Dems have some wiggle room that they wouldn't have in a state like, say, Florida.

[Crumpets]

This is a map of early ballot requests by county in Florida according to MyFlorida.com Some really interesting things to see, but I'm not sure what exactly is expected about this and unexpected. Might the strong Democratic showing in the North be enough to save Gwen Graham?

[Crumpets]

My ballot just arrived! I'll probably fill it out and mail it in tomorrow.

[Crumpets]

only question reamining would be if...as sean trende says 10 times each day....there are more dem voters this time or they are just sooo motivated that they are "cannibalizing" their election day vote.

Fortunately, even if it is just "cannibalizing" the election day vote, it is ensuring that the people who might be turned away from hours-long lines get multiple chances, and I'm guessing a lot of the unable-to-vote demographic in states like Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina are Democrats.

[Crumpets]

I stand by my prediction that NE-2 will vote to the left of the nation as a whole.

[Crumpets]

For anyone who is concerned that the early vote is "cannibalizing" the election day vote - that's not necessarily a bad thing. Remember all the stories of people in hours-long lines on election day in 2012? Every person who would vote on election day instead voting early is a person who is not waiting in line on election day.

[Crumpets]

Here's a map - 4% change in vote = 10% change in color

[Crumpets]

Interesting vote tracker for North Carolina from Upshot:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

I don't know if they have one for other states.

[Crumpets]

On this note, wouldn't we expect that if Trump was activating massive numbers of low propensity white voters that the Midwest would be exactly where turnout would be surging, since it has the most of them?

you are technically correct, even while....are there really states which are better for republicans if the turnout is high?

Then again most of the Trumpers don't approve of ANY early voting. I keep seeing how voting should only be allowed one day and if you can't make it that's your own problem. So I'm sure a lot of them won't vote until election day.

Funny enough the biggest Trump supporter I know isn't going to vote. Hoping there's a lot of them that are like that.

The biggest Trump supporter I know has said the same thing, although I'm not sure I believe him.

What are these people's reasons?

[Crumpets]

^ Matches the VBM patterns in Washington so far.  We don't have party registration, but I've seen the data.

So what are you seeing for early VBM numbers in Clark and Pierce Counties thus far for relatively Blue Collar parts of the state?

I've been looking at the return rates among voters who participated in our useless May presidential primary as a gauge of enthusiasm -- especially since you'd figure those folks are disproportionately hardcore party faithful.  So far, Democratic returns outpace Republican turns about 27.2% to 22.8%.  The gap is mostly pretty uniform statewide.  King is slightly higher than average, but among the 36/39 counties reporting statistics, only two have a higher return rate among Republicans.  Those are Okanogan, which had a high-turnout ballot measure on the May ballot, so I wouldn't pay that due, and Grays Harbor, a working-class Dem-leaning county where Trump did quite well in the primary.

Oddly enough, Spokane has an even bigger gap (30.1% vs. 24.8%) than King.

Also, what's going on in Whitman and Spokane counties with VBMs in Eastern Washington, as well as some smaller counties along the Columbia River Gorge?

Sorry, in what way?

How's your Washington state flip map working based on what your early numbers are showing?

Eh, I'm reluctant to read too much into this.  I think it's a good sign for the Democrats, but considering today's national news and how vague these tea leaves are, I'm not overthinking it.  I expect turnout to even out, and after today, we may see the enthusiasm gap reverse slightly.  Who knows

Apologies... no party registration makes it a bit more difficult to read the bird entrails, so you have a bit less to work with for data points, other than the May "Primaries" to look at overall turnout and enthusiasm levels .

How is overall party registration and turnout numbers looking like in heavily Latino Counties in Eastern Washington? Have we seen a surge in voter registration numbers in places like Yakima County as well as early turnout numbers? What are early voting numbers looking like in heavily Mormon Counties in SE Washington?

What we are seeing in Eastern Oregon is high turnout levels in many traditionally Republican Counties that have both a large population of Mormons, as well as large populations of Latinos, and even with Party ID (Unlike WA) it's difficult to tell if we will see some interesting results from places like the "Inland Empire" where there is both a strong Anti-Trump Republican element, as well as an extremely large and latent Latino vote, in what are generally heavily Republican parts of both Oregon and Washington.

I wish I could run the 2008 and 2012 numbers in Oregon by County and Party ID for early voting, but unfortunately, I think I would need to pay to pull this data.

How are you getting partisan data when we don't have party registration?

[Crumpets]

Yes, Hispanics will turn out in DROVES to vote for Hillary CLinton because they see her as so much more favorable that President Obama.

For the argument "well they will because they hate Trump and all the things he said". During a 2012 debate Mitt Romeny said he was going to deporate hispanics and make things to the point where they want to self-deporte. He got what, 27% of the Hispanic vote? Yes, them and AA are much more enthusiastic to vote for Hillary than Obama. Really? Okay we will see soon enough..

Oh, we will. Romney might have said deport, but he was a tempered candidate with experience and nuance. HE didn't start the campaign saying Mexicans are rapists and murderers nor did he base it on that.

The false equivalence of Romney = Trump to Hispanics is insulting. Romney is a saint compared to Trump.

hahaha only in this dreamland called the atlas forum. We will find out in basically a week.

You're insane.

Why because im pointing the OBVIOUS out that AA and hispanic will turn out not even close to Obama levels for Hillary? If that's insane, i guess like i said we will find out soon.

It is an easily observable fact that Hispanic turnout is up dramatically since 2012. It's harder to judge AA turnout, but any losses will likely be very small.

[Crumpets]

Iowa absentee ballot stats, 10/31

Ballots requested:

DEM: 248,314
GOP: 198,459
IND: 132,883
Other: 1,905

Ballots cast:

DEM: 198,736
GOP: 155,425
IND: 97,503
Other: 1,380

Dems had a very good weekend. They expanded their ballot request lead to virtually 50K and now lead in ballots cast by 43.5K. On Friday, Dems led by 46.5K in ballot requests and 40.5K in ballots cast

Is there some secret cohort of black churches in Iowa that only appear for souls to the polls and then disappear come census time?