Flo's and ElectionGuy's Maps

[Tayya]

Great idea, but be careful with the numbers - assuming the current trends continue and don't reverse too much, Nevada's 1st district would probably be more than Tilt D. And Idaho wouldn't be gerrymandered for a D district unless there was a D governor and legislature, which while unlikely seems like a stretch.

[Flake]

Instead of the usual North/South divide, I divided Delaware up with the Eastern half and the Western half.

District 1 (blue)
67.1% Obama
31.8% McCain

Solid D



District 2 (green)
56.8% Obama
41.9% McCain

Likely D

Now we can add Delaware to the map!

11 Democrats
6 Republicans

[ElectionsGuy]

Sorry to butt in here, you don't have to count this or anything, but I did an 8-district South Carolina:



Blue: 63.3% McCain, 34.9% Obama = Safe R
Green: 62.2% McCain, 36.6% Obama = Safe R
Purple: 59.8% McCain, 38.8% Obama = Safe R
Red: 64.8% Obama, 34.3% McCain = Safe D
Yellow: 60.7% McCain, 38.1% Obama = Safe R
Teal: 55.6% Obama, 43.5% McCain = Likely D
Gray: 50.7% Obama, 48.1% McCain = Toss-Up
Slate Blue: 59.8% McCain, 39.0% Obama = Safe R

This sounds like a really fun series!

[Flake]

Sorry to butt in here, you don't have to count this or anything, but I did an 8-district South Carolina:



Blue: 63.3% McCain, 34.9% Obama = Safe R
Green: 62.2% McCain, 36.6% Obama = Safe R
Purple: 59.8% McCain, 38.8% Obama = Safe R
Red: 64.8% Obama, 34.3% McCain = Safe D
Yellow: 60.7% McCain, 38.1% Obama = Safe R
Teal: 55.6% Obama, 43.5% McCain = Likely D
Gray: 50.7% Obama, 48.1% McCain = Toss-Up
Slate Blue: 59.8% McCain, 39.0% Obama = Safe R

This sounds like a really fun series!

14 Democrats
11 Republicans

Tayya: We're just doing random maps with current demographics, assuming nothing changes

[Tayya]

Ah, heh. For the record, developing this into a deeper project with actual projections and guesses would be very neat (and very, very wrong).

[ElectionsGuy]

6-District Utah

Blue: 60.4% Obama, 36.8% McCain = Lean/Likely D
Green: 53.5% McCain, 43.7% Obama = Likely R
Purple: 75.6% McCain, 21.3% Obama = Safe R
Red: 67.0% McCain, 30.3% Obama = Safe R
Yellow: 71.9% McCain, 24.8% Obama = Safe R
Teal: 72.8% McCain, 23.7% Obama = Safe R

OK, I'll be done until tomorrow.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

You can add this to your map if you'd like, Flo.



AR-1 (Blue) = Lean/Likely D
51.8% Obama
46.3% McCain

AR-2 (Green) = Safe R
34% Obama
63.6% McCain

AR-3 (Purple) = Safe R
35.1% Obama
62% McCain

AR-4 (Red) = Safe R
34.3% Obama
62.4% McCain

[Tayya]

North Dakota



District 1 (Blue; Fargo, Grand Forks):
Obama: 50.7%
McCain: 47.4%
TOSSUP

District 2 (Green; Bismarck):
Obama: 38.6%
McCain: 59.4%
SAFE R

[Flake]

Thanks y'all for all the help!

Maryland:



1 (blue): 50.6% Obama, 48.0% McCain = Tossup/Tilt D
2 (green): 53.8% Obama, 44.7% McCain = Lean D
3 (purple): 85.6% Obama, 13.4% McCain = Safe D (Black majority)
4 (red): 54.5% McCain, 43.6% Obama = Lean R
5 (yeller): 51.0% Obama, 47.9% McCain = Tossup/Tilt D
6 (teal): 54.2% Obama, 44.5% McCain = Lean D
7 (gray): 61.9% Obama, 36.8% McCain = Strong D
8 (slate blue): 74.4% Obama, 24.6% McCain = Safe D
9 (cyan): 91.9% Obama, 7.6% McCain = Safe D (Black majority)

25 Democrats
21 Republicans

[Flake]

Kansas



1 (blue): 52.0% Obama, 46.4% McCain = Tossup/Tilt D
2 (green): 58.2% McCain, 39.8% Obama = Likely R
3 (purple): 66.5% McCain, 31.8% Obama = Solid R

26 Democrats
23 Republicans

[TJ in Oregon]

Here's Ohio:


1 (blue-Cincinnati): McCain 51.6%-Obama 47.3% Safe R
2 (green-Southern Ohio): McCain 58.3%-Obama 39.9% Safe R
3 (purple-Columbus): Obama 59.9-McCain 38.8% Safe D
4 (red-Dayton): McCain 54.0%-Obama 44.4% Safe R
5 (gold-Cleveland): Obama 72.1%-McCain 26.8% Apocalyptically Safe D
6 (dark slate-Southeast Ohio): McCain 51.7%-Obama 46.2% Likely R
7 (gray-Canton): McCain 50.4%-Obama 48.0% Likely R
8 (lime green-North Central Ohio): McCain 50.0%-Obama 48.2% Likely R
9 (cyan-Toledo): Obama 49.4%-McCain 48.8% Lean R
10 (maroon-Akron/Youngstown): Obama 58.4%-McCain 39.8% Safe D

Zoom-In on NEOH:

[Miles]

Not that I want this, but if Republicans can hold on until then:

11-4



(Obama/McCain)

CD1- 65/35
CD2- 45/55
CD3- 41/59
CD4- 77/22
CD5- 42/57
CD6- 44/55
CD7- 43/56
CD8- 57/42
CD9- 45/55
CD10- 44/56
CD11- 41/58
CD12- 79/21
CD13- 47/53
CD14- 43/56
CD15- 38/61

I could see 13 flipping a only in a wave, but a Wake County R should be able to hold it easily otherwise.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Hmm... this will be a fun race to see whose side can gerrymander themselves to the majority.

[Miles]

Hmm... this will be a fun race to see whose side can gerrymander themselves to the majority.

Whoah, I'm drawing a Democratic NC then!

[TJ in Oregon]

Hmm... this will be a fun race to see whose side can gerrymander themselves to the majority.

Yeah I was wondering when this thread would get to that point. If Miles and I can make enough maps, we might end up with a very Republican Midwest and a very Democratic south. Truthfully, I'd probably take that in real life too

[Miles]

Hmm... this will be a fun race to see whose side can gerrymander themselves to the majority.

Yeah I was wondering when this thread would get to that point. If Miles and I can make enough maps, we might end up with a very Republican Midwest and a very Democratic south. Truthfully, I'd probably take that in real life too

Seconded

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

I took no prisoners.



LA-1 (Blue) = Lean D
52.4% Obama
46.6% McCain

LA-2 (Green) = Safe R
74.6% McCain
23.9% Obama

LA-3 (Purple) = Safe R
69.4% McCain
28.8% Obama

LA-4 (Red) = Lean D
52.1% Obama
46.7% McCain

LA-5 (Yellow) = Safe R
72.2% McCain
26.1% Obama

LA-6 (Teal) = Safe D
60.1% Obama
38.2% McCain

[Flake]

Hmm... this will be a fun race to see whose side can gerrymander themselves to the majority.

Yeah I was wondering when this thread would get to that point. If Miles and I can make enough maps, we might end up with a very Republican Midwest and a very Democratic south. Truthfully, I'd probably take that in real life too

Seconded

Thirded (if thats a word)

[Skill and Chance]

Not that I want this, but if Republicans can hold on until then:

11-4



(Obama/McCain)

CD1- 65/35
CD2- 45/55
CD3- 41/59
CD4- 77/22
CD5- 42/57
CD6- 44/55
CD7- 43/56
CD8- 57/42
CD9- 45/55
CD10- 44/56
CD11- 41/58
CD12- 79/21
CD13- 47/53
CD14- 43/56
CD15- 38/61

I could see 13 flipping a only in a wave, but a Wake County R should be able to hold it easily otherwise.

Cool map!  When NC gets big enough for 15 districts, I would imagine Mecklenburg and Wake will be proportionally much bigger, which would cause 9, 13 and 2 to shrink and probably force R's to concede a 5th Dem seat.  I would draw this by making 4 a more compact Eastern Research Triangle seat and then drawing 15 from Durham/Chapel Hill to the Triad like an E-W NC-12.  Then NC-12 can stay in Mecklenburg and take in every 60% D precinct in the county.  I wonder if NC R's will try to do 11-3 in 2021?  I think that would backfire pretty quickly in the Charlotte or Fayetteville area.

[TJ in Oregon]

Wisconsin:



1 (blue-Janesville/Waukesha): McCain 52.1%-Obama 47.5% Safe R
2 (orange-NW Wisconsin): Obama 53.6%-McCain 44.6% Lean R
3 (purple-Madison/Driftless Area): Obama 67.3-McCain 31.3% Safe D
4 (gold-Milwaukee): Obama 70.7%-McCain 28.0% Safe D
5 (red-Mid Wisonsin): McCain 50.8%-Obama 47.8% Safe R
6 (green-Green Bay): Obama 51.9%-McCain 46.6% Likely R

Yes, I always make Green Bay in a green-colored district.

The only really competitive one here is the orange one, which I think Romney probably carried. The '08 numbers in Wisconsin are especially misleading in the north.

[hopper]

My take on Wisconsin:




1 (Milwaukee/Red): 74-25 Obama. 51.5% White, 30.4% Black, 12.9% Hispanic. Safe D
2 (Racine/Kenosha/Suburbs/Blue): 50-49 Obama. 84.8% White, 6.5% Hispanic, 5.1% Black. Lean R
3 (Madison/Janesville/Yellow): 70-28 Obama. 86.7% White, 4.7% Hispanic, 3.9% Black. Safe D
4 (La Crosse/Eau Claire/Stevens Point/Green): 60-39 Obama. 94.4% White. Likely D
5 (Superior/Wausau/Orange): 54-44 Obama. 94.4% White. Toss-Up
6 (Green Bay/Purple): 53-45 Obama. 92.0% White.  Toss-Up
7 (Oshkosh/Fond du Lac/Sheboygan/Green): 51-47 Obama. 92.6% White, 3.0% Hispanic. Likely R
8 (Waukesha/West Bend/Exurbs/Brown): 59-40 McCain. 93.0% White, 3.9% Hispanic. Safe R

Just remember how deceptive these Obama 2008 numbers are. These are similar to the ones they have now, and yes this is favorable to republicans, but I don't care, Its looks nice and clean. Instead of Paul Ryan's current district, I put a southeastern based district in the way. And for Sensenbrenner, he still has a safe Waukesha based district, but he gets Walworth county in there. And the 2nd district (Pocan) gets Janesville and almost everything in Rock County.

That looks like a fair map.

[hopper]

Sorry to butt in here, you don't have to count this or anything, but I did an 8-district South Carolina:



Blue: 63.3% McCain, 34.9% Obama = Safe R
Green: 62.2% McCain, 36.6% Obama = Safe R
Purple: 59.8% McCain, 38.8% Obama = Safe R
Red: 64.8% Obama, 34.3% McCain = Safe D
Yellow: 60.7% McCain, 38.1% Obama = Safe R
Teal: 55.6% Obama, 43.5% McCain = Likely D
Gray: 50.7% Obama, 48.1% McCain = Toss-Up
Slate Blue: 59.8% McCain, 39.0% Obama = Safe R

This sounds like a really fun series!

I guess Clyburn would run in the red colored district or maybe even the teal colored one.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

VA-1 (Blue) = Likely D
55.3% Obama
43.9% McCain

VA-2 (Green) = Safe D
56.7% Obama
42.5% McCain

VA-3 (Purple) = Safe D
58.7% Obama
40.5% McCain

VA-4 (Red) = Safe D
66.2% Obama
33.1% McCain

VA-5 (Yellow) = Lean D
52.5% Obama
46.6% McCain

VA-6 (Teal) = Safe D
55% Obama
44.3% McCain

VA-7 (Grey) = Likely D
53.2% Obama
46.1% McCain

VA-8 (Slate Blue) = Safe D
59.6% Obama
39.7% McCain

VA-9 (Cyan) = Safe D
56.2% Obama
43% McCain

VA-10 (Pink) = Toss-Up/Tilt R
51.2% McCain
48% Obama

VA-11 (Chartreuse) = Safe R
58.3% McCain
40.6% Obama

VA-12 (Cornflower Blue) = Safe R
56.9% McCain
41.8% Obama

VA-13 (Salmon) = Safe R
60.3% McCain
38.5% Obama

[Flake]

43 Democrats
41 Republicans

[Flake]

Mississippi:



1 (blue): Obama 49.6%, McCain 49.6% (Obama won by 109 votes)= Tossup/Tilt D
2 (green): Obama 49.8%, McCain 49.5%= Tossup/Tilt D
3 (purple): Obama 51.8%, McCain 47.5%= Tossup/Tilt D
4 (red): McCain 78.4%, Obama 20.6%= Safe R



Alabama:
1 (blue): Obama 49.8%, McCain 49.7%= Toss Up/Tilt D
2 (green): Obama 49.7%, McCain 49.7% (Obama won by 169 votes)=Tossup/Tilt D
3 (purple): McCain 72.6%, Obama 26.7%= Safe R
4 (red): Obama 50.0%, McCain 49.1%= Tossup/Tilt D
5 (yellow): McCain 66.3%, Obama 32.6%= Solid R
6 (teal): 77.2% McCain, 21.8% Obama= Safe R

49 Democrats
45 Republicans