Would Joe Sestak be in trouble if he ran for reelection in PA-07?

[Mr.Phips]

PA-07 is exactly the kind of suburban district(much like PA-08) that went Democratic in 2006, but seems to want to go back to Republicans.

Republicans tried to get Meehan to run in 2008 against Sestak, but he said no.  This time , do you think he could have given Sestak a scare or maybe even defeated him?

These idiotic Senate runs by House candidates in swing districts are killing Democrats.  When will Democrats learn that when your party controls the White House, you better hunker down and stay in your House seat unless you face the prospect of having your district made nearly unwinnable(or very tough) for you(ie Chambliss, Ehrlich, Ganske and Riley in 2002).

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

I think it would have been a tough race but I also think Sestak would be favored.

[J. J.]

There was a shake-up in the GOP organization, and it looks a lot leaning.  Sestak would have a problem.

[TeePee4Prez]

I think it would have been a tough race but I also think Sestak would be favored.

Basically.  55-45 Sestak.

You heard it first.  I'm even going to concede this seat now.  There's only 1 conservative 3rd party challenger and he's not as well known and Lentz has an uphill battle.  I think Pat Murphy will prevail because Fitzpatrick has to contend with 2 conservative challengers plus 1 is fairly well known (Tom Lingenfelter).  I'm thinking losses in PA of the 7th and 11th are the most likely with only losing the 11th as optimistic.

[TeePee4Prez]

There was a shake-up in the GOP organization, and it looks a lot leaning.  Sestak would have a problem.

I don't think the party "shakeup" would have mattered.  The politics of PA-7 have shifted dramatically leftward.

[Mr.Phips]

I think it would have been a tough race but I also think Sestak would be favored.

Basically.  55-45 Sestak.

You heard it first.  I'm even going to concede this seat now.  There's only 1 conservative 3rd party challenger and he's not as well known and Lentz has an uphill battle.  I think Pat Murphy will prevail because Fitzpatrick has to contend with 2 conservative challengers plus 1 is fairly well known (Tom Lingenfelter).  I'm thinking losses in PA of the 7th and 11th are the most likely with only losing the 11th as optimistic.

Then why didnt Democrats beg Sestak to run for reelection?  I mean, its not like he is going to win the Senate race or anything.  Maybe he will run against Meehan in 2012, tying him to the extremist Republican Congress and will hope Obama's coattails will bring him back in to office?  I think there are a lot of Democrats that lose this year(the worst year for Democrats since 1894) that come back to run in 2012. 

[TeePee4Prez]

I think it would have been a tough race but I also think Sestak would be favored.

Basically.  55-45 Sestak.

You heard it first.  I'm even going to concede this seat now.  There's only 1 conservative 3rd party challenger and he's not as well known and Lentz has an uphill battle.  I think Pat Murphy will prevail because Fitzpatrick has to contend with 2 conservative challengers plus 1 is fairly well known (Tom Lingenfelter).  I'm thinking losses in PA of the 7th and 11th are the most likely with only losing the 11th as optimistic.

Then why didnt Democrats beg Sestak to run for reelection?  I mean, its not like he is going to win the Senate race or anything.  Maybe he will run against Meehan in 2012, tying him to the extremist Republican Congress and will hope Obama's coattails will bring him back in to office?  I think there are a lot of Democrats that lose this year(the worst year for Democrats since 1894) that come back to run in 2012. 

I think Toomey is overpolling right now.  Don't assume Sestak will lose.  The ads painting Toomey as an extremist haven't come to fruition yet.  But damn, I wish Toomey would show his true colors like Sharon Angle did.  If so, Sestak would cruise.

[Mr.Phips]

I think it would have been a tough race but I also think Sestak would be favored.

Basically.  55-45 Sestak.

You heard it first.  I'm even going to concede this seat now.  There's only 1 conservative 3rd party challenger and he's not as well known and Lentz has an uphill battle.  I think Pat Murphy will prevail because Fitzpatrick has to contend with 2 conservative challengers plus 1 is fairly well known (Tom Lingenfelter).  I'm thinking losses in PA of the 7th and 11th are the most likely with only losing the 11th as optimistic.

Then why didnt Democrats beg Sestak to run for reelection?  I mean, its not like he is going to win the Senate race or anything.  Maybe he will run against Meehan in 2012, tying him to the extremist Republican Congress and will hope Obama's coattails will bring him back in to office?  I think there are a lot of Democrats that lose this year(the worst year for Democrats since 1894) that come back to run in 2012. 

I think Toomey is overpolling right now.  Don't assume Sestak will lose.  The ads painting Toomey as an extremist haven't come to fruition yet.  But damn, I wish Toomey would show his true colors like Sharon Angle did.  If so, Sestak would cruise.

I think Toomey had this locked up the day Sestak won the primary.  The problem is that there is a wall of around 60% of independents that will support any Republican like robots when a Democrat holds the White House in any open seat race.  Specter could have brought that percentage down to around 50% the way Reid has because he would have fought back against Toomey just like he did to Lynn Yeakel in 1992. 

[Bo]

I think it would have been a tough race but I also think Sestak would be favored.

Basically.  55-45 Sestak.

You heard it first.  I'm even going to concede this seat now.  There's only 1 conservative 3rd party challenger and he's not as well known and Lentz has an uphill battle.  I think Pat Murphy will prevail because Fitzpatrick has to contend with 2 conservative challengers plus 1 is fairly well known (Tom Lingenfelter).  I'm thinking losses in PA of the 7th and 11th are the most likely with only losing the 11th as optimistic.

Then why didnt Democrats beg Sestak to run for reelection?  I mean, its not like he is going to win the Senate race or anything.  Maybe he will run against Meehan in 2012, tying him to the extremist Republican Congress and will hope Obama's coattails will bring him back in to office?  I think there are a lot of Democrats that lose this year(the worst year for Democrats since 1894) that come back to run in 2012. 

I think Toomey is overpolling right now.  Don't assume Sestak will lose.  The ads painting Toomey as an extremist haven't come to fruition yet.  But damn, I wish Toomey would show his true colors like Sharon Angle did.  If so, Sestak would cruise.

Toomey isn't as extreme as Angle. The only things Sestak can really hammer him for are Social Security privatization and banking deregulation, I believe.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Sestak would be in huge amounts of trouble, as is ... well, virtually every Democrat in a competitive seat in Pennsylvania. I'm not buying in to the GOP +90 seat garbage, but I think Republicans can (and will) pick up a ridiculous number of seats in Pennsylvania this year.

Toomey isn't as extreme as Angle. The only things Sestak can really hammer him for are Social Security privatization and banking deregulation, I believe.

Right. Toomey (my former congressman) is just a hard-line fiscal conservative who actually believes what he says. He's not crazy, and he's not a social crusader.

I never liked him much and I wouldn't vote for him given the chance, but dude isn't even remotely in the same league as Angle, et al.

[Mechaman]

I have to agree with IceHokcey on the possible Sestak victory fellas.  He has the IT factor, and when a candidate has "IT", they are very hard to bring down.