I change my mind. Steele is going to run...

[AuH2O]

This is a longer and better version of what I've been saying. The Democratic primary looks like it's going to be divisive and there's still time for it to get worse (other candidates entering).

The idea you can magically dominate the black vote on the basis of abortion is fairly hilarious... as if blacks are Democrats because of abortion. Please. Go to a NOW convention and count the blacks.

Thus, Steele is a no joke matchup even for Cardin, who is competent but a little long in the tooth and not very inspiring.

It still leans Dem-- but 'lean' being the key word.

[AuH2O]

Well, the main question regarding race is black turnout IMO. Steele WILL get more of the black vote than Republicans normally do, and the gap might be rather large given the low starting point. BUT, he will still lose the black vote. So a secondary issue is turnout-- and I think he wins here also, as blacks certainly won't be mobilized against him.

He can win, make no mistake.