2016 Slovakia General Election, March

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The next general election in an EU country, by count, is this March and it concerns Slovakia, where incumbent nationalistic lefty PM Robert Fico, an incredibly divisive figure in (and out) of the nation (although he lacks the notoriety of, say, Viktor Orban.

THE LEFT

The Left in Slovakia is Smer. Originally started as a "clean" version of the old sucessor party to the old Communist Party, it quickly exploded in popularity in a surge of populist opposition to the "neoliberal" reforms of Mikuláš Dzurinda (2002-06); and took power taking two controversial and nationalistic partners for his coalition - the Slovak Nationalist Party (SNS) and ĽS-HZDS (the personal party of the demented first PM of Slovakia). Fico's first government was extremely divisive (and the man himself is despised by the media) to the extent that although Smer gained seats, his coalition friends were massacred. After coming back to power in 2012 (as a majority) Fico has made fairly populist moves, lowering the deficit by avolishing the flat tax and raising corp tax and taking a hardline on refugees, LGBT's, Romas etc. He remains popular - but it should be noted that when Fico tried to run for President (presumably to try and convert the position into an executive one)  he was panned and lost to an independent.

There are no other left-wing parties of any relevance. The Communist Party once randomly entered the legislature in 2002, and immediately left the next election. The Greens were in the first legislature, but are a nonfactor nowadays, All other lefties have been swallowed by the Smer (like Dubcek's old party, for instance)

THE RIGHT

There are a lot of right-wing parties in Slovakia, and none of them are very powerful at the moment. There are the four parties that ran the 2010-12 government: the socially conserservative KDH, the liberal-conservative SDKU, the classical liberal/right-libertarian SaS and the liberal Hungarian interest party Most-Hid. Alll of them are suffering from the Gorilla scandal which broke out during the 2012 election, which was one of those cartoonishly explosive cartoonish implicate more and more people with every passing day. SDKU has been a particular victim of this scandal, having  headed the previous 10-12 government and as of writing has only one legislator remaining.  There are two fairly popular offshoots '- Ordinary People-New Allliance (two populist conservative group split off from SaS and KDH running in tandem) and (new for this election) socially conservative #Network (you know it's new, it has a hashtag!). There is the old Hungarian nationalist party, which competes with the more modern Most-Hid for votes. And SNS have been revived from their grave due to the EU crises. They lost a lot of goodwill in government due to pretty much every member being a criminal thug, causing major international strife with Hungary and their provocative leader (who was basically a stereotype if what you think when you think "Eatern Europe fasc") being seen as a tool.

HAve fun.

[Cranberry]

Sadly, despite Slovakia being a neighbour country, I know very little about its politics, and you practically never hear anything about it in the media here...

Are there yet any polls out?

[Hifly]

SMER must be the most popular social democratic party in Europe electorally at present.

This is not surprising.

[DavidB.]

Thanks for opening this thread and for your detailed description, Crab Interesting to see to what extent the migrant crisis will influence this election, seeing as Fico has been adamant in opposing EU quota and the like.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Sadly, despite Slovakia being a neighbour country, I know very little about its politics, and you practically never hear anything about it in the media here...

Are there yet any polls out?

http://www.electograph.com/2016/01/slovakia-december-2015-median-poll.html

From December.
And I can say the same, Slovakia is kinda small state and even in Poland their internal issues have little media coverage. But even though some right-wing and left-wing circles very like Fico, myself included.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, I'd probably vote for Fico as well. One of the only countries in which I could see myself supporting social democrats.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I thought he'd be way too economically left-wing for you.

[DavidB.]

In EU countries, I find the EU and immigration to be the most important issues/themes. Smer had a good stance during the eurocrisis and I agree with their stance on the migrant crisis as well, so that's enough for me. I don't agree with their economic views, but that is of secondary importance, just as I don't agree with DF's economic views (which are basically social democratic in all but name) but I'd vote for them nonetheless.

But this is not Individual Politics, so let's talk about the election again; sorry for derailing this, that was my fault.

[FredLindq]

There is a 5% threshold and 7% threshold for coalitions. I.e. SMK and SDKU and the coalition between OLNo and Nova might be without seats.

I think that it will be very hard to establish an anti-SMER centreright coalition this time. Especially since the far-right SNS will enter parliament.

Thinkable coalitions: SMER+KDH, SMER+SIET or even a dreadful SMER+SNS (liks Meciars HZDS+SNS+ZRS in 1994-1998).

[aross]

There is a 5% threshold and 7% threshold for coalitions. I.e. SMK and SDKU and the coalition between OLNo and Nova might be without seats.

I think that it will be very hard to establish an anti-SMER centreright coalition this time. Especially since the far-right SNS will enter parliament.

Thinkable coalitions: SMER+KDH, SMER+SIET or even a dreadful SMER+SNS (liks Meciars HZDS+SNS+ZRS in 1994-1998).

Well, SDKÚ got in last time with only 6%, so it appears they are not a coalition. (Though if they've only got one MP left, it surely seems unlikely they'll manage even 5%?)
I don't think SMK are a coalition either, they just call themselves that. (Perhaps to appear more inclusive?)

[FredLindq]

My mistake SDKU and SMP are NOT coalitions. However they will probably not get even 5%.

[Hash]

A poll from December showed the following:

Smer 42.4% (down about 2% from the last election)
KDH 9.4% (conservative Christian democrats)
SIEŤ 8.3% (new centre-right party founded by Radoslav Procházka, ex-KDH and third place finisher in the 2014 presidential election with 21%, appears to be your usual novel serious people REFORM centre-right vacuousness)
SaS 7% (insufferable eurosceptic libertarians)
OĽaNO-NOVA 6.7% ("anti-corruption" ex-SaS conservative-populists linked up with REFORM ex-KDH eurosceptic conservatives)
Most-Híd 6.6% (predominantly Hungarian moderate centre-right party)
SNS 6.4% (literal fascists)
SMK-MKP 4.4% (the 'old' and more ethno-nationalist Hungarian party)
SDKÚ-DS 3.3% (formerly dominant mainstream pro-EU liberal right party, lol)
Others 5.5%

[FredLindq]

A new polls from Phoenix Research published 2016-01-04 gives:
Smer 35.9% and 71 seats (-12 from 2012)
SIEŤ 13.9% and 28 seats (+28 from 2012, new party)
SNS 7.1% and 14 seats (+14 from 2012)
KDH 6,9 % and 14 seats (-2 from 2012)
Most-Híd 6,8% and 13 seats (+/-0  from 2012)
OĽaNO-NOVA 5,7% and 0 seats (-16 from 2012) (7% threshold for coalitions)
SaS 5.0% and 10 seats (-1 from 2012)
SMK-MKP 4.1% and 0 seats (+/-0  from 2012)
SDKÚ-DS 2.1% and 0 seats (-11 from 2012)
Others 12.5% (pretty high figure…)

So the winner would be SIET and SNS.

Thinkable coalitions: SMER+KDH, SMER+SIET or even a dreadful SMER+SNS

For an anti-SMER coalition, OĽaNO-NOVA needs to get the 7%- threshold for coalitions and even the SMK the 5%-threshold for parties. SIEŤ, KDH, Most-Híd, OĽaNO-NOVA, SaS and SMK-MKP could the maybe get the 76 seats needed for an majority. I doubt it and I doubt that they can manage to form a coalition.

[rob in cal]

    Are any of the opposition parties campaigning against Fico's stance on the migrant crisis?  It would be fascinating to see a pro-high immigration party actually campaign on that plank, and see what the response would be.

[FredLindq]

Another new poll this time by Focus published 2016-01-20 gives:
Smer 37.0% and 67 seats (-16 from 2012)
SIEŤ 13.2% and 24 seats (+24 from 2012, new party)
SNS 7.2% and 13 seats (+13 from 2012)
KDH 7.0 % and 13 seats (-3 from 2012)
Most-Híd 7.0% and 13 seats (+/-0  from 2012)
OĽaNO-NOVA 6.1% and 11 seats (-5 from 2012)
(It seems like 7% threshold for coalitions is not relevant here...)
SaS 5.1% and 9 seats (-2 from 2012)
SMK-MKP 3.9 % and 0 seats (+/-0  from 2012)
SDKÚ-DS 2.4% and 0 seats (-11 from 2012)
Others 11.1% (Still a pretty high figure…)

SMER 67
Centre-right 70
Extreme right 13

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

    Are any of the opposition parties campaigning against Fico's stance on the migrant crisis?  It would be fascinating to see a pro-high immigration party actually campaign on that plank, and see what the response would be.

Nah, if anything they're to trying to outcompete him on the refugee issue (unlike on other issues that might be more fruitful, like the country's lousy education and healthcare services). The only source of "moderation" comes from Andrej Kiska.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

http://www.politico.eu/article/slovakia-fico-migrants-refugees-asylum-crisis-smer-election/

[FredLindq]

“Poll off polls”  from Median, MVK and Focus between 6-16/2

Smer 33,1% and 60 seats (-23 from 2012)
SIEŤ 12,4% and 23 seats (+23 from 2012, new party)
SNS 9,9% and 18 seats (+18 from 2012)
Most-Híd 7.7% and 14 seats (+1  from 2012)
KDH 7.5 % and 14 seats (-2 from 2012)
OĽaNO-NOVA 6.2% and 11 seats (-5 from 2012)
(It seems like 7% threshold for coalitions is not relevant here...)
SaS 5.4% and 10 seats (-1 from 2012)
SME RODINA 4.7% 0 seats (+/0 2012, new party)
SMK-MKP 3.6 % and 0 seats (+/-0  from 2012)
SDKÚ-DS 1,0% and 0 seats (-11 from 2012)
Others 8,4%

SMER 60
Centre-right 72
Extreme right 18
   

SME RODINA  or “We Are A Family’ is a new party of well-known businessman Boris Kollár. The new name of the party reflects the philosophy that the family is the basic cell of society, Kollár stated. Soon, he will reveal the party's agenda. He thinks his party has a chance to make it to parliament, but refused to predict a more precise result.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

I like when old, corrupt parties crushes down, like SDKU and HZDS.

[FredLindq]

Tomorrow is the election day in Slovakia!

Last “Poll off polls”  from  AKO, EAC, Phoenix Research, MEDIAN, MVK, Focus and Polis
between 6-18/2

Smer 33,1% and 61 seats (-22 from 2012)
SIEŤ 12,5% and 23 seats (+23 from 2012, new party)
SNS 9,1% and 17 seats (+17 from 2012)
Most-Híd 8.0% and 15 seats (+2  from 2012)
KDH 7.2 % and 13 seats (-3 from 2012)
OĽaNO-NOVA 6.2% and 11 seats (-5 from 2012)
SaS 5.5% and 10 seats (-1 from 2012)
SME RODINA 4.0% 0 seats (+/0 2012, new party)
SMK-MKP 3.9 % and 0 seats (+/-0  from 2012)
SDKÚ-DS 1,2% and 0 seats (-11 from 2012)
Others 9,4%

SMER 61
Centre-right 72
Extreme right 17

[Beagle]

First (and apparently only) exit poll:

Smer 27,3 (45 seats/150)
SaS 13,3 (22 seats)
Oľano 11,2 (18 seats)
SNS 8  (13 seats)
Most 7  (12 seats)
ĽSNS 6,80 - (11 seats) if SNS proper are literal fascists, this bunch are literal nazis...
Sieť 6,70 (11 seats)
Sme Rodina 5,9 (10 seats)
KDH 5 (8 seats)

Rest of = under the threshold. We'll see how the exit poll holds up - my Slovak friends tell me it's not particularly realiable - but with such tiny margins, the actual outcome is very much in the air.

But it's pretty clear that SMER no longer commands a majority, which is a good thing (tm), and that their anti-immigrant rhetoric has backfired, pushing sizable numbers towards the nazis fascists er... extreme right. Not so good.

[Famous Mortimer]

If those numbers are correct, non-Smer, non-fascist parties all together command a slim majority. That would mean a 6 party government though.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

KDH is right on the threshold and could be kicked out. Sme Rodina is an autocratic populist-right (far right?) outfit owned by an oligarch. LSNS is literal nazis, who want to put Roma in camps (no hyperbole).

[Beagle]

Sme Rodina is an autocratic populist-right (far right?) outfit owned by an oligarch.

Extreme populism, imo. Electoral slogan: 'We don't want politicians! We want Boris!'. Boris (Kollar) is a shady media owner, who will be amenable to all sorts of coalitions... but will go to the highest bidder. This guy seems take the 'Father of the nation' thing quite literally: he's got 9 kids from 8 women.

Bonus: a joke from his website's humor/humour section:

If Angela converted: New fashion boom.
"For this spring season, we can call the European fashion 'The calm before the burqa'"


Geddit? Cause the word for storm in Slavic languages is quite similar to the word burqa. Hilarious, right?

LSNS is literal nazis, who want to put Roma in camps (no hyperbole).

Yeah. Their führer leader got himself elected to the governor office in one district when he found himself in the runoff against an unpopular Smer incumbent, and now it seems that Jobbik are no longer the nazi-est party in an EU parliament.

Survey on the preferred coalitions (pre-election):
Smer single party rule: 3%
Smer + SNS (ie. the National Socialist government of Fico I) - 17%
Smer + a party of the center right - 12%
Coalition headed by SMER, regardless of the number and kind of other parties: 10%

Coalition of no more than 3 parties of the center right: 28%
Coalition of 4-5 parties of the center right: 12%

So yeah, Slovaks don't want multiparty coalitions, or Smer, or the EU. That's why they elected such a messy parliament that it seems like a Smer headed, pro EU, broad multiparty coalition is the only way to avoid disaster*.

* I'm sure Fico would rather have the disaster, though. Fico is a ******, who will watch as the government formation descends into chaos/farce, so that he may come back as the pair of safe hands in a couple of months/years time.

[RodPresident]

With 5% in, with 58% turnout (Bratislava's turnout 66% and Kosice region 35%)
Smer: 61 seats
SNS: 16
LSNS: 15
O'LALNO-NOVA: 15
SaS: 12
SME Rodina: 11
MOST-HÍD: 10
KDH: 10
SMK is at 4.97%...
Very hard coalition forming here...