2004 Democratic Primary

[Gustaf]

<<After I have given back to God and provided for my family, the bible gives me free reign to do whatever I want with my money.>>

How do you financially give back to god?

Lol...you burn the bills on an altar, didn't you know?

That's about the size of it.

I find it strange that you two mock the fact that churches need money to keep the lights on.  Everything takes money.  Church is no different.

Calm down, it was just an innocent joke, that's all.

I didn't know that you had such an altruistic view towards the world, the whole "foreigner shuoldn not be on the forum" and "we are the envy of the world" business had led me to believe otherwise. But I am also in favour of free trade, I just think that it OK to show support to different ideas through consuming. I try to buy from my local shop, b/c I like to have a local shop, even though the prices aren't that good.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I didn't know that you had such an altruistic view towards the world, the whole "foreigner shuoldn not be on the forum" and "we are the envy of the world" business had led me to believe otherwise.

My statements about foreigners on this forum had to do with being busybodies.  That's a different subject than showing favoritism.  My statements regarding both subjects are in no way contradictory.

---

But I am also in favour of free trade, I just think that it OK to show support to different ideas through consuming. I try to buy from my local shop, b/c I like to have a local shop, even though the prices aren't that good.

The corner stores around me sale products made from all over the world (except food items), therefore the corner store is going to remain regardless of which items, domestic or foreign, I buy.

But I understand what you are saying and certainly you have a moral right to spend money in the way that most benefits yourself.  After all, it is your money.  

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

But I am also in favour of free trade, I just think that it OK to show support to different ideas through consuming. I try to buy from my local shop, b/c I like to have a local shop, even though the prices aren't that good.

The corner stores around me sale products made from all over the world (except food items), therefore the corner store is going to remain regardless of which items, domestic or foreign, I buy.

But I understand what you are saying and certainly you have a moral right to spend money in the way that most benefits yourself.  After all, it is your money.  

In fact the corner stores around me aren't even owned by Americans!  LOL!

[Nym90]

Lol, I know what you mean, though it is worth pointing out that those two goals are not one and the same. They were just both cited as examples of goals that people may choose to pursue rather than low prices.

[Canadian observer]

Canadian Observer is back after a long absence

Eh... University keeps me quite busy

[Canadian observer]

Since the sum (PC+CA) doesn't equal the sum of its parts (CPC) then where are those voters going and where are they coming from?  Are former PC voters switching to Liberal (or even former CA voters?)

Former CA voters seem to follow the new Conservative party, but I wouldn't bet on the behavior of former PC voters before the CPC leadership vote and the upcoming federal election.  Of course, a couple of them are making their mind and voting for the Liberals or the New Democrats.

The CPC leadership vote is decided on a county-by-county basis(calculated with accumulated points).  I'm not aware of the details, but it makes the contest more challenging for Stephen Harper (former CA leader), and easier for Belinda Stronach (Ontarian businesswoman, former CEO of Magna Int'l) and Tony Clement (Former Minister of heath in Ernie Eves government).  Belinda gets an even more easier ride now that bulk bying of party membership cards had been permitted again (She has the money ! ).


Belinda Stronach


Stephen Harper


Tony Clement

If I'm right, currently no polls among the supporters have been done on the upcoming CPC leadership contest.  So in the possible event that an Ontarian wins the leadership, Conservative MP's in the Atlantic might have more chances to get re-elected, and the hemorrage of support from the old PC to the Liberals may stop.

In Quebec, almost any former PC organizer now works for the Liberals.  It’s a desert for the Conservative, and yet it’s going to account for roughly 25% of the leadership vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Virginia

1 Williamsburg (or '' '' and Chesapeake Bay)
2 Virginia Beach (or '' '' and Chesapeake Bay)
3 Norfolk & Richmond East
4 Chesapeake & Petersburg
5 Virginia Central (or Danville)
6 Roanoke & Shenandoah
7 Richmond West
8 Arlington
9 Clinch Mountains
10 Manassas & Winchester
11 Mount Vernon (or Fairfax)

West Virginia

1. Wheeling and Morgantown
2. Charlston and Martinsburg
3. Coal District (or Clinch and Alleghanies)

[minionofmidas]

Hmmm... Only differences in or south of WV as far as I can see... I never heard of the Clinch Mountains. Whenever I've come upon references to that corner of Va. that is (apparently-I've never been there) way more like WV or KY than like the rest of Virginia, they called it South West Virginia. So I figured that even though it's highly boring, it'd do.
Same goes for the WV names, really. Highly boring, but there's only three districts in the state, so what's the point in giving them nice names? Especially as lots of people would probably react by saying "I live nowhere near these two cities! Is that really my district?"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Clinch Mountains cover almost all of VA-9 and are sort of a southern extension of the Alleghanies.

A better name for WV-3 might be Alleghanies-Sandy River.

WV-2 might be Kanawha Valley and the Eastern Panhandle?

WV-1 is dominated by the Wheeling (or Northern) Panhandle, so that might work as a name.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A few ideas...

I've got to go now, but when I'm back (half-hour to 2 hours) I'll put my Missouri ones up and have a go at NJ and CA.

I'll probably start a thread on Gerrymandering soon...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Missouri

1 Saint Louis North
2 Saint Charles
3 Saint Louis South
4 Missouri Valley
5 Kansas City ('' '' East?)
6 Saint Joseph ('' '' and Kansas City?)
7 Springfield and the Ozarks
8 Cape Girardeau and Sikeston
9 Columbia and Hannibal (or something involving "Twain"?)

[Gustaf]

But I am also in favour of free trade, I just think that it OK to show support to different ideas through consuming. I try to buy from my local shop, b/c I like to have a local shop, even though the prices aren't that good.

The corner stores around me sale products made from all over the world (except food items), therefore the corner store is going to remain regardless of which items, domestic or foreign, I buy.

But I understand what you are saying and certainly you have a moral right to spend money in the way that most benefits yourself.  After all, it is your money.  

In fact the corner stores around me aren't even owned by Americans!  LOL!

Same here...

Thanks for letting me spend my money freely!

I agree that they aren't directly contradictory, just indications of different opinions. That's why I used the phrase "led me to believe...".

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Unempolyment drops to 5.6% as January added either 112k new jobs or 496k new jobs!

The establishment survey said payrolls outside the farm sector grew by 112,000 jobs, compared with an upwardly revised gain of 16,000 in December.

The household survey -- which includes the self-employed -- said employment grew by nearly 496,000 people in January.

The average work week expanded to 33.7 hours from 33.5 in December, indicating businesses increased activity.



http://money.cnn.com/2004/02/06/news/economy/jobs/index.htm

[jravnsbo]

Jobless Rate Drops to 5.6% in January; 112,000 Jobs Added    

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

6 seconds apart?  scary

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Some economists think hiring really is occurring in the economy, but it is not being reflected in the Labor Department's monthly survey of business payrolls. In the separate survey of households, employment jumped by 496,000 last month.

The household survey counts self-employed workers and contract workers, which are increasing. The survey of businesses does not.

"They're not recording the outside contractors - they're not reflecting something that is tremendously fundamental now to the American corporate scene, and that's outsourcing to outside contractors," said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics.

Friday's report showed that workers are indeed putting in longer hours, with the average work week climbing by 0.2 hour to 33.7 hours. The manufacturing work week increased by 0.3 hour to 40.9 hours.

"Employers are working their workers longer hours instead of hiring more bodies. For the economy, that counts," Mayland said, noting that it produces more income for consumers to spend, keeping the economy afloat. "This is telling you the economy really is growing very fast."

About 8.3 million people remained unemployed in the United States last month.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040206/D80HRJ080.html

[jravnsbo]

great minds think alike.

6 seconds apart?  scary

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

jmf vs. JNB: Early Conclusions at end of Jan04...

Unemployment:

JNB's Unemployment prediction of 5.8-6.3% for 2004 is slightly above the reported 5.6% for Jan04.

jmf's Unemployment prediction of 5.3-5.7% for Oct04 is in agreement with the reported 5.6% for Jan04.

---

Job Growth:

JNB's Job Growth prediction, while slightly lower than the  reported actual numbers, is matching well with the Establishment report.

jmf's Job Growth prediction is matching well with the Household survey.

---

GNP Growth:

JNB's 2004 2.0% GNP prediction covering 2004Q1-2004Q4 cannot yet be elavuated.  2004Q1 numbers will be out at the end of April.

jmf's GNP prediction covering 2003Q4-2004Q3 of >4% growth is roughly in line with the 4.0% reported for 2003Q4.  The Q4 number will be revised at the end of Feb and again at the end of March.

---

it's still early in the race, so stay tuned

[opebo]

jmf vs. JNB: Early Conclusions at end of Jan04...

Unemployment:

JNB's Unemployment prediction of 5.8-6.3% for 2004 is slightly above the reported 5.6% for Jan04.

jmf's Unemployment prediction of 5.3-5.7% for Oct04 is in agreement with the reported 5.6% for Jan04.

---

Job Growth:

JNB's Job Growth prediction, while slightly lower than the  reported actual numbers, is matching well with the Establishment report.

jmf's Job Growth prediction is matching well with the Household survey.

---

GNP Growth:

JNB's 2004 2.0% GNP prediction covering 2004Q1-2004Q4 cannot yet be elavuated.  2004Q1 numbers will be out at the end of April.

jmf's GNP prediction covering 2003Q4-2004Q3 of >4% growth is roughly in line with the 4.0% reported for 2003Q4.  The Q4 number will be revised at the end of Feb and again at the end of March.

---

it's still early in the race, so stay tuned

There's no way unemployement will be *higher* on election day than now.  I'm sure it will be lower, its just impossible to know if it will be low enough to ensure Bush's re-election.   I would agree with jmf's analysis more than JNB, though I suspect than even a 5.3% rate in Oct. will overstate the real rate.  Anyway  unemployement really only matters in certain swing states - OH most of all, and perhaps PA and WV.  Michigan too but I've already written that off.  My state (MO) is already in good shape economically and will vote Bush.  If there's a lot of unemployment somewhere like CA or NY, AK or SC, it really won't effect the outcome there.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Interview with jmf…

Reporter:  How are you feeling at the end of Jan04 about your competition with JNB?

jmf:  JNB gets his outlook from financial rags mostly written from the other side of the pond; whereas I get my outlook from actually being in touch with the pulse of the US economy.

Reporter:  And what exactly is your outlook?

jmf:  The US is going through a structural change in which individuals will have to start viewing and managing their careers as if it were their own personal business, as companies offload risks to workers by using more and more contractors.  

Reporter:  And what do you see as the result of such a structural change?

jmf:  I think we are already seeing it:  high GDP growth, high productivity growth, high corporate profits, increased self-employment, increased home ownership rates, low inflation, and lower unemployment.

Reporter:  And what will happen to those workers who are unable or unwilling to cope with the pressures of having to be more proactive in selling their skills and keeping their skills fine-turned?

jmf:  They will be left behind.

Reporter:  Is that a theological statement?

jmf:  No, I’m not a pretribber.

Reporter:  Getting back to your contest with JNB, how do you feel about your current standing and would you change any of your predictions?

jmf:  I’m feeling good.  I was a little disappointed with December’s performance, but the economy has resumed it’s a faster rate of growth in January and has picked up even more steam in February.  I think the 4% growth reported for 2003Q4 will be revised upward to around 4.5% and we’ll see 4% growth for the next couple of quarters as the second phase of the tax cut kicks in as people receive their refund checks.

Reporter:   Any advice for JNB?

jmf:  Yeah.  He mentioned he reads The Economist magazine.  I suggest he read The Economist article entitled “Crystal Balls UP” in the 9/28/02 issue.  He’ll find the article praises the Economic Cycle Research Institute as one of the most successful forecasting groups on the planet, successfully prediction the US recessions of 1990 and 2001.  JNB can find their forecasting index represented in a chart at the top of the first post of this thread.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Employment as measured by the business survey of non-farm businesses had fallen by 716,000 since the recession ended in November 2001, while the household survey showed employment growth of about 2.2 million over that period.

Part of the discrepancy is due to differing definitions of employment. For example, the household survey measures farm workers and the self-employed, while the business survey does not.

cnnfn.com

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Like your Birmingham North and Birmingham South?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've been thinking about doing that and did do PA about 2 years ago... before losing it


Something that should be abolished is the thing about all districts having the same population... a 20,000 deviation in most cases would be fairer.

[minionofmidas]

I'll grant you that the insistence on making all districts within a state identical is a wee bit silly gven the large differences between the states. But I made 'em equal or almost equal in rounded thousands anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That rule is an invitation for gerrymandering...