Cruz and Christie's respective chances in Iowa and New Hampshire are highly overrated, IMHO.
I don't believe that the establishment is smart enough to rally around Christie in time, but what is your reasoning behind Cruz being overrated? He's consolidating much of the evangelical vote in Iowa and his ground game appears to be very sophisticated. Even with the rising media onslaught from opponents in the state, surely he has the resources to fight back.
I agree that Cruz is the favorite in the contest. I just don't think he is favored enough to justify nearly 80% of posters thinking he will win. It remains to be seen how Trump will respond to Cruz's lead and whether the Rubio/Huckabee/Santorum firing squad will have any effect on him.
When is the last time an explicitly anti-RFS candidate won Iowa?
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