US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The best way to get rid of Holden would be to divide Schuylkill among three or four districts.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Okay, here's a map of Pennsylvania. My objectives were:

1. Shore up the Republicans in Obama districts as much as possible.
2. Get rid of Tim Holden for real this time.
3. Eliminate Critz's district.

Here are the maps:

Statewide



Pittsburgh area



Southeast PA



Philadelphia area



PA-01 (blue, Bob Brady - D) - Pretty much unchanged. 37% white, 37% black, 17% Hispanic. Old district: 88-12 Obama, new district: 84-16 Obama.
PA-02 (green, Chaka Fattah - D) - Expands into North Philly. 57% black. Old district: 90-10 Obama, new district: 88-11 Obama.
PA-03 (dark purple NW corner, Mike Kelly - R) - Goes more to the east than to the south. Old district: 49-49 McCain, new district: same (McCain by about 1,200 votes).
PA-04 (red, Jason Altmire - D) - Didn't try to dislodge him, but didn't try to make it easier for him either. Pretty much kept the same borders, except it pulls in more of Butler County now. Old district: 55-44 McCain, new district: 54-45 McCain.
PA-05 (gold central district, Glenn Thompson - R) - Necessity causes it to stretch down to the suburbs of Pittsburgh. Old district: 55-44 McCain, new district: 54-45 McCain.
PA-06 (dark teal SE district, Jim Gerlach - R) - Somewhat less of a mess, it takes in as much Republican territory in SE PA as possible, and also picks up part of Bethlehem. Old district: 58-41 Obama, new district: 53-45 Obama.
PA-07 (grey, Pat Meehan - R) - Some of the heavily-Dem precincts on the eastern end of Delaware County get eaten by PA-01, and it expands west to the more Republican parts of Chester County. Old district: 56-43 Obama, new district: 54-45 Obama.
PA-08 (purple SE district, Mike Fitzpatrick - R) - Cut out the Dem part of SE Bucks County and added some parts of Montgomery and Philly that are more Republican. Old district: 54-45 Obama, new district: 51-48 Obama.
PA-09 (light teal S district, Bill Shuster - R and Mark Critz - D) - Mostly the same, except it pulls in Cambria County and stretches out to the Pittsburgh suburbs. Critz wouldn't stand much of a chance here. Old district: 63-35 McCain, new district: 60-39 McCain (the most Republican district in the state).
PA-10 (magenta, Tom Marino - R) - Stretches across the northern part of the state, but also takes in all of Lackawanna. Republicans would do well to primary Marino, since he'd probably lose here, but a competent Republican could hold the district. Old district: 54-45 McCain, new district: 51-48 McCain.
PA-11 (light green NE district, Lou Barletta - R) - Luzerne County and its environs. Old district: 57-42 Obama, new district: 51-47 Obama.
PA-12 (light purple S district, Todd Platts - R) - The former PA-19, pretty much unchanged except it takes in part of Harrisburg. Old district: 56-43 McCain, new district: 53-46 McCain.
PA-13 (pink, Allyson Schwartz - D) - An octopus that takes in as much heavily-Dem territory as possible from the surrounding Republican districts. Old district: 59-41 Obama, new district: 68-32 Obama.
PA-14 (brown, Mike Doyle - D) - Pretty much the same, Pittsburgh. Old district: 70-29 Obama, new district: 68-31 Obama.
PA-15 (orange, Charlie Dent - R) - Cut out part of Bethlehem, adds parts of counties to the north. Old district: 56-43 Obama, new district: 54-45 Obama.
PA-16 (light green SE district, Joe Pitts - R) - Mostly unchanged, except it pulls in some more of Reading. Old district: 51-48 McCain, new district: 51-49 McCain.
PA-17 (dark purple central district, Tim Holden - D) - To get rid of Holden, you need to cut up Schuylkill County, as I did into 4 districts. Stretches to the west now, and loses part of Harrisburg as well. Old district: 51-48 McCain, new district: 57-42 McCain.
PA-18 (yellow SW district, Tim Murphy - R) - Pretty much all of the southern Pittsburgh suburbs and points south. Old district: 55-44 McCain, new district: 53-46 McCain.

So, if the Republicans knock off Holden and hold their seats, it's a 13-5 map. If they can get rid of Altmire as well, it's 14-4.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It would be wiser, yes, but what is wise often goes out the door come redistricting time. The Republicans did the exact same thing with the last map, creating a bunch of swing districts and hoping the Democrats didn't pick them up. Of course, all but one of the Democratic pickups snapped back in 2010. And heck, my map is better because all the swing districts are at least a couple points more Republican now.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Torie, it would be helpful if you'd post the partisan breakdown of the districts in your maps. I can't just look at a map and say "well, that'd be great for the Republicans".

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Schwartz is 62; she won't have another crack at a Senate seat until she's 68. I guess she could run for Governor in 2014, but she doesn't seem interested in that. There's no point in trying to get rid of her when they could make her district a sink for suburban Democratic votes.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Surprisingly meek redistricting plan. Shores up Gerlach and Barletta, but doesn't do much to help the other incumbents. And Barletta would be vulnerable if Chris Carney decided to run again, since he's been put into PA-11.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Another stab at a Republican PA map:



Open in a new window to make it bigger.

PA-01 (blue, Bob Brady - D) - Mostly the same, just takes in a little more of Delaware County. 39.5% black VAP. Goes from 88-11 Obama to 85-14 Obama.
PA-02 (green, Chaka Fattah - D) - Also pretty much the same as the old district. 55.0% black VAP. Goes from 90-10 Obama to 90-9 Obama.
PA-03 (purple NW, Mike Kelly - R) - Borders change, but pretty similar to the old district. Goes from 49-49 McCain to 50-49 McCain.
PA-04 (red, Jason Altmire - D and Mark Critz - D) - I carved up both Altmire and Critz's districts in an attempt to get rid of both. PA-04 contains both Altmire's home in suburban Allegheny County and Critz's home in Johnstown. I cut out the areas that went strong for Altmire (Beaver and Lawrence Counties) and for Critz (Greene, Fayette, and Washington Counties) and instead centered the district in Westmoreland County. Goes from 55-44 McCain to 56-43 McCain.
PA-05 (yellow N, Glenn Thompson - R) - Had to shift this one south in order to accomodate PA-10, but it remains 55-44 McCain.
PA-06 (teal, Jim Gerlach - R) - This one had to shift north. Whereas it used to be mostly in Chester County, now it's mostly in Montgomery and Berks. Gerlach might not like having a bunch of new territory, but I managed to cut the Obama margin quite a bit. It went from 58-41 Obama to 52-47 Obama.
PA-07 (grey, Patrick Meehan - R) - Dropped the Montgomery County portion of the district and added a lot more of Chester County. Goes from 56-43 Obama to 53-46 Obama.
PA-08 (light purple SE, Mike Fitzpatrick - R) - Bucks County stays all in the same district, but the bits that poke into Philadelphia and Montgomery County are reconfigured to drop the margin a bit. Goes from 54-45 Obama to 53-46 Obama.
PA-09 (sky blue, Bill Shuster - R) - Stretches east to gobble up some Democrat-friendly parts of PA-12. Remains the most Republican district in the state, though. Goes from 63-35 McCain to 59-39 McCain.
PA-10 (magenta, Tom Marino - R) - Chops out the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area stuff and stretches west way across the state. Stays the same at 54-45 McCain.
PA-11 (light green, Lou Barletta - R) - Almost an entirely new district, but Barletta will be happy to be in one that voted for McCain. Cuts out all of Scranton and Wilkes-Barre and instead goes down to Harrisburg. Goes from 57-42 Obama to 52-47 McCain.
PA-12 (light purple S, Todd Platts - R) - The former PA-19 remains pretty much the same. Goes from 56-42 McCain to 56-43 McCain.
PA-13 (pink, Allyson Schwartz - D) - Redrawn a bit to soak up some more Democratic territory. Goes from 59-41 Obama to 62-37 Obama.
PA-14 (brown, Mike Doyle - D) - Expands a bit, but pretty much the same. Goes from 70-29 Obama to 68-32 Obama.
PA-15 (orange, Charlie Dent - R) - Cut Bethlehem out of the district and expanded it north. Goes from 56-43 Obama to 53-46 Obama.
PA-16 (light green S, Joe Pitts - R) - Pretty similar to the old district, just swaps a bit of Chester with PA-07. Stays the same at 51-48 McCain.
PA-17 (purple NE, Tim Holden - D) - Holden gets an almost completely new district; basically just attached Schuylkill County to a Dem vote sink that takes in Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, and Bethlehem. Goes from 57-42 McCain to 58-41 Obama.
PA-18 (yellow SW, Tim Murphy - R) - Drops a bunch of Westmoreland County and pulls in parts of PA-04 and PA-12 to weaken the Democrats' chances of holding PA-04. Goes from 55-44 McCain to 54-45 McCain.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

And for an intellectual exercise, here's a Democratic gerrymander:



As usual, new window = bigger. I cut the 18th district.


PA-01 (blue) - Soaks up some Republican parts of Delaware County. 49% white, 29% black, 13% Hispanic, 8% Asian VAP. Goes from 88-11 Obama to 78-21 Obama.
PA-02 (green) - Stretches up to the northeastern end of Philadelphia to take in some Republican precincts. 50.2% black VAP. Goes from 90-10 Obama to 84-16 Obama.
PA-03 (purple) - Mike Kelly is one of the few Republican winners here; he gets an uber-safe district based in his home turf of Butler County. Goes from 49-49 McCain to 60-39 McCain.
PA-04 (red) - Jason Altmire likely wouldn't want an Obama district, so I kept this a McCain district, but it's much closer now. Drops the worst parts of the district for him and adds some more of Allegheny, including a bit of northern Pittsburgh. Goes from 55-44 McCain to 50-49 McCain.
PA-05 (yellow NW) - Time to get serious here. Glenn Thompson's district has Erie County appended to it in order to create a Dem-friendly swing district. Goes from 55-44 McCain to 54-45 Obama.
PA-06 (teal) - Jim Gerlach's district is drawn out from under him (he's just across the border, in PA-16), and also has much of its territory removed to create a Lancaster-Reading-Pottstown-Norristown district. Gerlach could run here, but it might be easier for him to run in PA-16, given that his Chester County base is mostly there. Goes from 58-41 Obama to 56-43 Obama.
PA-07 (grey) - Patrick Meehan and Joe Pitts are put together in this district, which is strengthened from 56-43 Obama to 61-38 Obama.
PA-08 (light purple SE) - Oh no, Bucks County got chopped up! Add parts of Philadelphia and Montgomery County, and you get a district that goes from 54-45 Obama to 60-39 Obama.
PA-09 (sky blue) - Bill Shuster's district remains mostly the same, and stays 63-35 McCain.
PA-10 (magenta) - Tom Marino gets a safe district, going from 54-45 McCain to 59-40 McCain.
PA-11 (light green NE) - Not much could be done to unseat Lou Barletta, so the Democrats would have to do some work. Goes from 57-42 Obama to 56-43 Obama.
PA-12 (light purple SW) - Reconfigured the Murthamander to up the Democratic performance a bit. Goes from 50-49 McCain to 51-48 Obama.
PA-13 (pink) - Allyson Schwartz gets the other half of Bucks County. Goes from 59-41 Obama to 61-39 Obama.
PA-14 (brown) - Mike Doyle's district drops quite a bit of Democratic performance, but remains safe. Tim Murphy is dropped in this district. Goes from 70-29 Obama to 62-37 Obama.
PA-15 (orange) - Charlie Dent gains some more Democratic territory and loses some Republican territory, goes from 56-43 Obama to 59-40 Obama.
PA-16 (light green SE) - Republican vote sink. No incumbent actually lives in this district, but it would be good for either Gerlach or Pitts, who are both just over the border. Goes from 51-48 McCain to 55-44 McCain.
PA-17 (dark purple) - Tim Holden gets a much improved district, though not a safe one, so he can continue being a Blue Dog. Picks up the Harrisburg suburbs and York. Goes from 57-42 McCain to 50-49 Obama.
PA-18 (yellow SE) - Formerly PA-19, Todd Platts is probably just outside the district, since he lives in York. It's extremely Republican now, going from 56-42 McCain to 61-39 McCain.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

LD-24 in Prince George's County, Maryland, is possibly the most Democratic in the country: it gave 98% for Obama and 96% for O'Malley in 2010. Steele got 16% there in 2006, which makes me wonder if the oft-quoted "Steele got 25% of the black vote" from the exit poll is incorrect (the district is 89% black).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's an article about the pending redistricting in Pennsylvania. Pitts is loath to give up any of his safe district to help out Gerlach or Meehan.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's another Republican map of PA:




PA-01 (blue, Bob Brady - D) - 83.3 Obama, 16.1 McCain, 82.3 D avg; 44.0% white, 40.8% black VAP
PA-02 (green, Chaka Fattah - D) - 91.4 Obama, 8.3 McCain, 89.8 D avg; 53.9% black VAP
PA-03 (purple, Mike Kelly - R) - 50.6 McCain, 48.1 Obama, 52.5 R avg
PA-04 (red, Jason Altmire - D and Mark Critz - D) - 54.7 McCain, 44.2 Obama, 51.9 R avg
PA-05 (yellow, Glenn Thompson - R) - 56.8 McCain, 42.0 Obama, 58.8 R avg
PA-06 (teal, Jim Gerlach - R) - 53.0 Obama, 45.8 McCain, 50.5 R avg
PA-07 (grey, Patrick Meehan - R) - 53.2 Obama, 45.9 McCain, 50.3 R avg
PA-08 (light purple, Mike Fitzpatrick - R) - 53.3 Obama, 45.6 McCain, 51.9 D avg
PA-09 (sky blue, Bill Shuster - R) - 56.8 McCain, 41.9 Obama, 53.3 R avg
PA-10 (magenta, Tom Marino - R) - 55.4 McCain, 43.3 Obama, 58.7 R avg
PA-11 (light green, Lou Barletta - R) - 55.1 McCain, 43.7 Obama, 57.3 R avg
PA-12 (light purple, Todd Platts - R, formerly PA-19) - 56.8 McCain, 42.1 Obama, 61.9 R avg
PA-13 (pink, Allyson Schwartz - D) - 65.0 Obama, 34.2 McCain, 62.6 D avg
PA-14 (brown, Mike Doyle - D) - 68.2 Obama, 30.8 McCain, 70.0 D avg
PA-15 (orange, Charlie Dent - R) - 54.9 Obama, 43.8 McCain, 53.4 D avg
PA-16 (light green, Joe Pitts - R) - 52.8 McCain, 46.3 Obama, 59.6 R avg
PA-17 (purple, Tim Holden - D) - 60.7 Obama, 38.2 McCain, 58.9 D avg
PA-18 (yellow, Tim Murphy - R) - 54.8 McCain, 44.2 Obama, 50.4 R avg

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Okay, let's go insane gerrymander for potential 12-4:



PA-01 - 88.1 Obama, 11.4 McCain, 86.9 D avg
PA-02 - 86.3 Obama, 13.3 McCain, 84.2 D avg, 51.2% black VAP
PA-03 - 51.7 McCain, 46.9 Obama, 50.9 R avg
PA-04 - 55.0 McCain, 44.0 Obama, 51.6 R avg
PA-05 - 52.9 McCain, 45.6 Obama, 53.3 R avg
PA-06 - 52.9 Obama, 46.1 McCain, 51.0 R avg
PA-07 - 52.8 Obama, 46.3 McCain, 50.1 D avg
PA-08 - 53.5 Obama, 45.4 McCain, 52.3 D avg
PA-09 - 59.4 McCain, 39.5 Obama, 61.0 R avg
PA-10 - 53.6 McCain, 45.1 Obama, 57.5 R avg
PA-11 - 56.5 McCain, 42.2 Obama, 59.1 R avg
PA-12 - 52.0 McCain, 46.9 Obama, 57.6 R avg
PA-13 - 54.2 Obama, 44.8 McCain, 52.1 D avg
PA-14 - 68.6 Obama, 30.4 McCain, 70.5 D avg
PA-15 - 53.1 Obama, 45.6 McCain, 51.3 D avg
PA-16 - 51.8 Obama, 47.4 McCain, 54.3 R avg
PA-17 - 62.1 Obama, 36.8 McCain, 61.6 D avg
PA-18 - 54.6 McCain, 44.4 Obama, 50.5 R avg

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Some other dude drew the map in DRA and got these numbers:



(Source)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I would be surprised if any left-wing groups spent money on the Critz/Altmire primary. Sure, Altmire was a dick to whip PA House Dems to vote for the bill, but it's not as if Critz has any particular value for liberals.