Czech parliamentary election 2013

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Date not set yet but, yeah, it's happening: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23770593

Polls have the Social Democrats well out in front with a messy three-way tie for second between the ODS, the Commies and TOP 90.

[Famous Mortimer]

Wonder if Zeman's party will cross the threshold now that he's the president.

[DC Al Fine]

Quick intro to Czech politics please?

[Famous Mortimer]

Main parties:

Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD): Pretty much what you'd expect.

Civic Democratic Party (ODS): Right-wing, allied with the British Tories in the European parliament, euro-skeptic, particularly dogmatically capitalist.

Tradition Responsibility Prosperity 09: Libertarianish party led by former Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg. Bassically the same as the ODS except pro-EU, but mostly it just gives right-wing people the opportunity to vote against the ODS without voting for the left.

Communist Party of Bohemia and Morovia (KSCM): Unreformed Communist Party. If the Communist and the Social Democrats got along, they could form a coalition after every election but that's seen as in bad taste. They say it might be different after this election but then again they say that after every election.

Smaller parties:

Public Affairs: Vague anti-corruption party that split in two because it was corrupt.

Liberal Democrats: Anti-corruption break away from Public Affairs

Party of Civic Rights: Party of President Zeman, a former Social Democratic Prime Minister who started out an eccentric maverick with a collection of odd views but who is now basically just a generic conservative.

[FredLindq]

The parties
Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD),  the main opposition party since 2006, socialdemocratic, centre-left and member of the PES, 22,1 % and 53 seats in the last election 2010. Is polling around 34 % now.

Civic Democratic Party (ODS), the main governmental party since 2006, conservative and euro-sceptic, right-wing and member of the ECR, got 20,2 % and 53 seats in 2010 and formed government with TOP09 and VV. Is polling just 14 % now.

Tradition Responsibility Prosperity 09 (TOP 09), newly formed party before last election by popular foreign minister Karel Schwarzenberg, liberal-conservative, centre-right and member of the EPP, the party got 16,7 % and 41 seats in 2010. It is polling 16 %.

Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM), communist,  far left and member of the EUL,  got 11,3 % and 26 seats in 2010. Is polling 17 % now.
 
Public Affairs (VV), newly formed party before the last election,  advocating direct democracy, centre centre-right party, got 11,9 % and 24 seats in 2010. Is polling below the 5 % threshold (i.e. 3%). Split in 2012 and then caused the downfall off the government (the minority with eight members in t Parliament formed Liberal Democrats LIDEM which supported the government). The LIDEM is a liberal party which is member of ELDR. The party has stated that they will not run alone in the upcoming elections.

Christian and Democratic Union – Czechoslovak People's Party (KDU-CSL), christiandemocratic, centre-right and member off EPP just got 4,3 % in 2010 and 0 seats. Is polling just abowe the 5% threshold and might return in parliament.

Party of Civic Rights – Zemanovci (SPOZ), socialdemocratic (?!) split from CSSD, formed by current president Milos Zeman. Got 4,3 % and 0 seats in 2010. Is polling below the 5 % threshold (i.e. 4%).

Green Party (SZ), green party, centrist, has formed government with ODS and KDU-CSL, got 2,4 % in 2010 and 0 seats. Is polling below the 5 % threshold (i.e. 3%).

Summary
CSSD 34 % (+12) approx 80 seats (+27)
KSCM 17 % (+6) approx 40 seats (+14)
TOP09 16% (-1) approx 40 seats  (-1)
OSD 14% (-6) approx 30 seats (-23)
KDU-CSL 5% (+1) approx 10 seats (+10)
SPOZ 4 % (+/-0)
SZ 3% (+1)
VV 3 % (-9)

We are looking at clear left-wing majority in the current polls. But will CSSD form a government with the support off KSCM? They will not propably form a formal coalition. Other possibilities are a coalitions with TOP09 and KDU-CSL (like the governments in 2002-2006) or with the support with ODS (as between 1998-2002). SPOZ, SZ or VV entering the parliament could effect the government formation only if  CSSD and KSCM does not get a clear majority or if CSSD decides to enter a coalition with TOP09 or another smaller party most likely SZ.

[Famous Mortimer]

Also, for those new to Czech politics.

The movement that took over after Communism (the Czech equivalent of Solidarity) was Civic Forum.

Civic Forum split up, with the bulk of its supporters going to the Civic Democratic Party, led by former Prime Minister and former President Vaclav Klause.

A minority faction stayed sort of bland and centrist, under the patronage of the the Czech Republics first president Vaclav Havel. They quickly faded away though as there was no real reason to vote for a party whose sole basis was being pro-human rights when the incumbent government was no longer particularly abusive of human rights.

Before he died, Havel endorsed the Green Party in several elections. They have become the new option for self righteous centrists.

[ferenc_szombat]

The elections will be held in 25-26 September.

Actual information about parties:

CSSD
Social democrats are splitted into two fractions - anti-zeman (more liberal, people behind chairman B. Sobotka) and pro-zeman (more conservative, people behind vice-chairman M. Hasek). Sobotka is losing his power, there are fear that Zeman could control the party.

ODS
This party is in crisis. Civic Democrats have problem with clientelism within the party and with disloyalty of its members (there were some MP's rebelling against party's leadership). After the end of Petr Necas is not sure, who will be head of the party. Some members are calling back "the father" of the party, Vaclav Klaus. He don't want to. ODS is now polling behind their rival on the right, TOP09.

Commies
Nothing new, most stable party in Czech republic. The electorate is slowly extincting.

TOP09
Enjoying their leading on the right. It is pretty success for the "marketing-made" party (the party name is meaning nothing, it's just "TOP choice in the elections"). Their campaign will be something like: "Stop the Zeman's dictatorship".

KDU-CSL
After the three years being out of the parliament, it seems that they may get back. The leader of the party is a little bit weirdo, but he have a clean hands.

SPOZ
The Zeman party. They help Zeman to win the presidential elections. After this election they have 5% in the polls, now they have about 3%. They want to candidate together with the CSSD, anti-zeman part of CSSD don't want to.


There is two new parties, which have chance to pass the threshold:

ANO ("YES")
The party founded and sponsored by multi-billionaire Andrej Babis. Andrej Babis bought one of most influential media group, he pay almost all billboards in the country for his party now and got some celebrities for the list of candidates. Ideologically they are some kind of populist, Babis want to "rule the state in the way he rules the company".

Úsvit ("Dawn")
The party founded by Czech-Japanese entrepreneur Tomio Okamura. Populism with nationalist tendency. They maybe merge with Public Affairs (VV), which would be bad for them.


And one caution - in the last two elections (presidential, regional) the polls wasn't so much accurate.

[FredLindq]

Regarding Velvet revolution and the parties in the Czech part, do not forget that the Country the was named Czechoslovakia. The main party in the Slovak part off the country was; Public Against Violence (Slovak: Verejnosť proti násiliu, VPN) was a political movement established in Bratislava, Slovakia, on 20 November 1989. It was the Slovak counterpart of the Czech Civic Forum (the VPN was founded some 2 hours before the Civic Forum). It played an important role in the Velvet Revolution.
At an extraordinary party congress held on 27 April 1991, a new party called Movement for a Democratic Slovakia split off from the VPN. It won the 1992 elections.

[ferenc_szombat]

We are looking at clear left-wing majority in the current polls. But will CSSD form a government with the support off KSCM? They will not propably form a formal coalition. Other possibilities are a coalitions with TOP09 and KDU-CSL (like the governments in 2002-2006) or with the support with ODS (as between 1998-2002). SPOZ, SZ or VV entering the parliament could effect the government formation only if  CSSD and KSCM does not get a clear majority or if CSSD decides to enter a coalition with TOP09 or another smaller party most likely SZ.

You tell the truth that the minority government of CSSD with the support of KSCM is most likely after elections. I don't think that CSSD will want to form government with TOP09 - this party is something like their arch-enemy. There is the option of some form of coalition between CSSD and ODS too - this parties have between 1998-2002 an agreement of tolerating Milos Zeman's cabinet. Milos Zeman is the president now and he is a fan of this kind of ruling (he mentioned the years of "Opposition agreement" like "the good years" in his inauguration speech). Coalition between CSSD and SPOZ in probably not possible because Zeman said that SPOZ would not form the government after this election (and he is non-formal leader of this party).

The perspective of social-democratic party government with the support of communist party is hardly acceptable for a lot people in Czech republic. This could cause a mobilization of right-wing voters (something like this happened in first round of presidential election because two ex-communist winning the polls). It is sure that TOP09 will make a big anti-zeman campaign. Some news are saying that CSSD is losing support a little now. So it is not certain that CSSD will have a "comfortable" position after election yet.

[ag]

Frankly, it should be another 60 years, at least, before anybody should be comfortable receiving support from the Commies. We need to wait until the last pre-1991 members of the party are dead.

[Franknburger]

Frankly, it should be another 60 years, at least, before anybody should be comfortable receiving support from the Commies. We need to wait until the last pre-1991 members of the party are dead.

Frankly, everybody below 30 in 1991 does not count, and once the "old guard" has passed the 70th birthday, they also hardly count any more. So the "quarantine period" extends to 2031 at maximum. In fact, looking at the Linke in East Germany, they are rather tame, regionalist and pensioner interests proxy-social democrats (the western wing is quite different).
 
Being not an expert in Czech politics, I would like to know a bit more about the Commies. Obviously, Czech(-oslovakian) communism was always a bit different (Prague spring in 1967). I could imagine them being some kind of crossover between the French Communists (mining & metal processing tradition) and the German Linke (regionalist, anti-Prague, plus pensioners lobby). Not a dream junior partner, but also not too problematic policy-wise (the psychological aspect is different topic). Corruption might of course become an issue, but there a quite a lot of parties in Central Europe which have problems controlling their leadership once they have moved into the "right" positions...

[Famous Mortimer]

There's one major difference between the Czech Communists and the German Left:

The Czech Communists are still Communists.

[ag]

Prague Spring was in 1968. Anybody, who stayed in the party after that knew exactly what he or she was doing . And they are nothing like the Linke.

I was 16 in 1991 and I knew exactly who was who. Ok, 20 in 1991 is ok. And until they turn 90. 2061 sounds right to me.

[FredLindq]

Should they not all be in jail?!

[MaxQue]

Should they not all be in jail?!

Why a random member would be in jail for more than 20 years?

[FredLindq]

Not a random leaders, but the "leaders".

[MaxQue]

Not a random leaders, but the "leaders".

No. Anyways, the figurehead died in 1991. Anyways, the consensus seems to just forget them. The Communist party expelled them and they live in the shadows, now. People seems to prefer to move on than bother going through big mediatized trials. Most hardline leaders were old and died and suing the moderate ones would make no sense, as they gave up power by themselves, in peace, while they could have resisted and caused a civil war (which is also an important element).

Anyways, people rarely go after former leaders. It's only exacerbing the frustation of the losing side. Same thing in Germany and many Eastern Bloc countries. In the 90's, the priority was modernizing and keeping nations united. Prosecution wasn't worth the trouble. See what happened in Yougoslavia.

[ferenc_szombat]

Frankly, it should be another 60 years, at least, before anybody should be comfortable receiving support from the Commies. We need to wait until the last pre-1991 members of the party are dead.

The reason why nobody wants cooperate with communist party is not pre-1989 membership but the ideology. They are continuation of socialist regime ruling party and they are proud of the "good old times". Now they have completely different leadership than before 1989, former leaders are showed up only on May Day.
After 60 years there will be no communist party, I guess . The average age of KSCM members is 70 years. In 2010 there were only 359 people younger than 30 years in this party (from the number of 70 000). They have problem with their youth wing too - previous young communist organization, Komunisticky svaz mladeze ("Union of Communist Youth), was banned because calling for a violent revolution.

Being not an expert in Czech politics, I would like to know a bit more about the Commies. Obviously, Czech(-oslovakian) communism was always a bit different (Prague spring in 1967). I could imagine them being some kind of crossover between the French Communists (mining & metal processing tradition) and the German Linke (regionalist, anti-Prague, plus pensioners lobby). Not a dream junior partner, but also not too problematic policy-wise (the psychological aspect is different topic). Corruption might of course become an issue, but there a quite a lot of parties in Central Europe which have problems controlling their leadership once they have moved into the "right" positions...

Members involved into Prague Spring was expelled from the party in the process called "Normalization", which started just after Soviet invasion. After Velvet Revolution some communists called for the reformation of the party (renaming, social-democratic course etc). Some of them leave the party and formed "Party of the Democratic Socialism" (marginal now). There is two different groups in the party now - liberal (more eurocommunist) and orthodox (dogmatic, "stalinists"). There is no rivalry between them I think.

There's one major difference between the Czech Communists and the German Left:

The Czech Communists are still Communists.

Exactly. When Kim Jong-il died, they sent official condolence to the North Korea.

Should they not all be in jail?!

After Velvet Revolution Vaclav Havel said that "he don't want to be like them (communists)", so no people in jail.

[ferenc_szombat]

Some news from Czech politics:

Social Democrats started their campaign in Friday. They are promising cheaper medicinal drugs, higher minimum wage and create more jobs. Their main slogan this election will be: "We will push through good working state."

That all sounds great, but there are more and more signs of splitting inside the party. The regional delegates were voting the "candidate to Prime Minister" this weekend - some people tried to made a coup against the party chairman Bohuslav Sobotka. That was caused by President Milos Zeman, because he said that he may give the Prime Minister function not only to the party's chairman, but also to "the main person in the party" (it's clear that he mean his favorite in the party Michal Hasek). Sobotka have had the support only from 57% of the delegates and he is accusing some party's member from self-seeking now.

Vice chairman and former chairman of the Green Party Martin Bursik is leaving party. He is saying that the party is "too much leftist" (he was  representative of right-wing in the Green Party). There is some rumors he will join KDU-CSL (some journalist  saw him in christian democrats headquarters). Green Party had a very little chance to get to the parliament, now they have the minimal chance.

Supporters of former President Vaclav Klaus is founding a party. The name of the party will be Suverenita a prosperita - Klausovci ("Suverenity and prosperity - Klaus's people"). The funniest thing about it is their short name - SUPR Klausovci - which could be translated like "Cool Klaus's people".
Now we have a Zeman's people party and a Klaus's people party. Something is wrong, when political veterans don't want to retire.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Any reason why the Czech Republic is the only non-Soviet Eastern bloc country to have a non-revisionist Communist Party?

[ferenc_szombat]

Any reason why the Czech Republic is the only non-Soviet Eastern bloc country to have a non-revisionist Communist Party?

I answer by translating part of this paper - kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/29231/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/f19f26d3-f6f3-4981-b93d-e7cd26eed8d9/cs/2004-11-Evropeizace+KSCM.pdf

"Instead of searching support in wider society and defining themselves like open, plural new left party, the leadership (under the pressure from below) concentrated to preservation of mass membership from the years of "normalization"* in 70's and 80's. This membership was dominated by conservative orientation and they aimed to continuation of traditional party identity and ideology. This kind of members is guaranteeing their support for leadership - certain place in the parliament and solid financial securing. The members are requiring that the leaders don't move from the traditional communist identity, which majority of membership consider like value for itself, they prefer it over practical politics and needs."

* - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalization_(Czechoslovakia)

I would add that the party have sufficient number of voters, even they are absolutely unreformed.

BTW There is still no new polls which could show situation after parliament dissolution.

[Famous Mortimer]

How's Jiri Paroubek's party doing? Did they absorb the old Social Nationalists/National Socialists?

[ferenc_szombat]

How's Jiri Paroubek's party doing? Did they absorb the old Social Nationalists/National Socialists?

About Jiri Paroubek - it is sad story. His party Narodni socialiste - Levice 21.století (National Socialist - 21th century left) merged not with original National Socialist, but with their split off Czech National Socialist Party 2005. Original Czech National Socialist Party (just to be sure - it isn't Nazi party) is accusing Paroubek of stealing their brand.
In the latest election - regional election - Jiri Paroubek's party have very well financed campaign. Despite this, their result was pretty bad - only 0,49%.  He paid 53 dollars for one vote.
Jiri Paroubek is great speaker and statesman (he was called "The bulldozer" in newspapers), but he is not strong in predicting. If he stayed in CSSD, he could have some function now. Now he is catching his last chance and is making a clown from themself for Czech tabloid Blesk (img.ahaonline.cz/img/18/full/1323608-img-jiri-paroubek-cviceni.jpg - Exercising with Jiri Paroubek)

-----------------------------

I'm still waiting for the polls. Meanwhile, Martin Bursik (former chairman of Green Party) is not going to Christian Democrats party, but he is forming his own party. The name will be Liberalne ekologicka strana (Liberal-ecologic Party). He get some popular people - for example activist Matej Hollan from Brno. I don't know If he have some chance to pass the threshold.
Ex-President Vaclav Klaus said that he will be not involved into next elections. So the "COOL Klaus's people" will be candidate without their Master.

[ferenc_szombat]

There is a new symptom of rotting inside the Czech Social Democratic Party. A few members are suing their own party because of not being on the list of candidates.  They are saying that there is no democracy inside the party - the regional commissions did not discuss the candidates with local cells.  The rebels are not just some losers - the main person in this case is the mayor of third biggest city in Czech republic.

The Tomio Okamura's party Usvit (Dawn) will candidate together with Moravian regionalist party Moravane (The Moravians). Tomio Okamura herself have Moravian mother and Japanese father. He made a millions in tourism, then he was spokesperson of employers in the tourism industry and became the television's favorite talking head. He is pretty popular, but have some controversial opinions ('Gypsies should make an own state like the Jews made the Israel'). He proclaimed his Moravian identity a several times. Thats probably why The Moravians are joining him. It's chance for the Moravian movement to be hear after 17 years.
(slovacky.denik.cz/galerie/foto.html?mm=tomio-okamura-vyskovec-221112-01 - Tomio Okamura in the Moravian folk costume)

I'm really looking forward for the polls - it will be interesting to see result of Social Democratic party after all that problems.

[ferenc_szombat]

I have said that you should not trust to Czech polls. I have a typical illustration why. Today was released a latest poll by medial agency Medea. This agency is owned by Czech businessman Jaromir Soukup. He is some kind of political entrepreneur - he supports some political parties before elections and after elections they give him more power. Now he is supporting Babis's party ANO and Okamura's party USVIT. In the poll made by his agency Medea these parties have very good result:

CSSD  25,4%
KSCM  13,7%
ANO  12%
ODS  10,8%
TOP09  9,7%
USVIT  8,6%
KDU-CSL   4,5%

(with the chart - tyden.cz/obrazek/201309/5227014187d46/volebni-prognoza-srpen-graf-522702979ed8e_521x419.jpg )


There is no another poll, so these numbers are unverifiable. But I think it is crazy, I can't believe that these parties are such a strong. And I'm not alone - only one news website publish this poll - Soukup's owned Tyden.cz (website of the magazine Tyden).

The poll description is strange too: "the lightning poll with the sample of 526 people chosen by quota, the margin of error is 0,9-4,4 %".

Jaromir Soukup supported a lot of parties in the past. In the 2010 parliamentary election he helped CSSD - they had a billboards with 90% sale for example. The latest Medea agency poll before election was so different from the election result! Here is shown which party have more in the poll than in election and which party have less:

CSSD +8,3 %
ODS -1,5 %
TOP09 -3,0 %
KSCM -1,3%
VV -1,1 %
SZ +2,5 %
KDU 0 %
SPOZ -0,6 %

It is so oblivious!

Another bad polling organizations are SANEP and PPM Factum. Median and CVVM are usable.