Kentucky Gubernatorial Primaries

[Sam Spade]

Kentucky is very fast in getting their results out.

The polls appear to have been really screwed up on the Dem side, unless there are some major areas for the other candidates that haven't reported yet.

Northup is beating Fletcher by nearly 2-1 in Louisville, but it doesn't look like that will be enough to take out his margins in rural Kentucky.

[Sam Spade]

Yep, this one's in the bag for Fletcher.  Might reach 52% before its over.

I guess there's still an outside shot of it being a runoff in the Dem primary, since I don't know what areas are outstanding, but I'm prepared to call it as being outside runoff territory, unless I missed something.

[Sam Spade]

Yep, this one's in the bag for Fletcher.  Might reach 52% before its over.

I guess there's still an outside shot of it being a runoff in the Dem primary, since I don't know what areas are outstanding, but I'm prepared to call it as being outside runoff territory, unless I missed something.

This help? 

It does, but I'm not really the Kentucky expert around here (see Al).

I also don't know where the Dem candidates are from and where their bases of support would likely lie.

[Sam Spade]

All I can do right now is look at the numbers:

Beshear has gone from 41.6% to 41.1% as the precinct count has gone up from 91% to 94%.

Does Kentucky require 40% even to avoid a runoff or can you round up?  

[Sam Spade]

Race over.  Beshear will be the nominee.  There aren't enough votes left to bring a runoff.

That's it for me tonight.

[Sam Spade]

Daily Kos is reporting that 146,000 more voters voted in the Democratic primary than the Republican primary. Is this typically the case in Kentucky?

Well, considering there are nearly 570,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, it seems highly likely more Democrats would vote than Republicans.

Turnout percentage was 22% for Dems, 20% for GOP.

I do not know how this compares to earlier Kentucky Governor's primaries where both races were contested.  Al might have numbers.

Anyway, I would caution anyone reading too much into primaries for general election results or "enthusiasm" to not do so.  Just a general rule of thumb. 

[Sam Spade]

Wonderful job at throwing away this race, guys. 

Oh, and I love how the Fletcher faction of the KY GOP is getting so arrogant about all of this by now recruiting a primary challenge for McConnell. I can't see that one being close at all...then again, KY Republicans seem to be pretty stupid so they might just throw McConnell out in the primary...

What's the difference between losing with an incumbant unpopular Governor and losing with a congresswoman you had to replace the unpopular governor with? I would have voted for Fletcher.

Northup wasn't as unpopular as Fletcher and we actually had a shot with her.

Why the whining, Phil?  Fletcher beat Northup with a superior campaign in all facets.  

Even though I don't pay that close attention to Kentucky politics, what became apparent over the last two months is that Northup apparently believed that Fletcher's unpopularity would snag her the nomination without her really trying that much.  Sounds familiar to some post I'm reading above.

The simple fact was that in order for Northup to win, she had to show that she could win Republican voters outside Louisville, and her under 30% showing in those areas proves her effectiveness.

If some of Fletcher's people are talking about trying to take down McConnell, that's kind of funny because there simply is no chance of that one occurring.

[Sam Spade]

Why the whining, Phil?  Fletcher beat Northup with a superior campaign in all facets.

I'm whining because it doesn't matter how superior his campaign skills will be in the fall. This race is over. He's finished.  

Ok.  Big deal.  If Northup couldn't make it outside Louisville in the Republican primary, imagine how she'd fare with Democrats in the general election.

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They're seriously recruiting this former State Supreme Court Justice who also was the GOP nominee for Governor in 1991 and 1995.
[/quote]

Are you talking about that perennial loser Forgy?

[Sam Spade]

Forgy wasn't the GOP Gov nominee in 1991. He lost to Larry Hopkins.

And I don't think that Forgy was ever on the Kentucky Supreme Court. He did get his ass whipped for a spot on the court in 2000

The only reason why Forgy jumped to my mind is b/c 1) that's who I've reading on the blogs has been lambasting McConnell from the right of late; 2) there's a Draft Forgy website out there.

I was making sure we're talking about the same guy.