House Polling Discussion: Charlie Bass, Survey USA, John Hostettler, and others

[Sam Spade]

It's possible; Scoonie would definitely like to agree. 

Becker Institute does not have the greatest record in NH polling, though.  In 2004, their last iteration on October 1 was Kerry 49, Bush 43, which was totally out of line with other polls at the time and pretty far off the final result, though still within MOE.

Historically, the only place ARG's ever been worthwhile to pay attention to is New Hampshire, but in 2004 they did predict Bush would win by 1, which was wrong.  Usually, as I remember from their past, their polls lean slightly Republican in NH, which is very different from a lot of their other polling.

I am curious to see if UoNH will poll again (normally under The Granite State Poll).  Considering my usual hatred of university polls,  it is to be noted UoNH is historically the best pollster in New Hampshire time and time again.  They nailed 2004, did the best in 2002 (slightly too Dem) in the tough to call Sununu-Shaheen battle, and did OK in 2000 (slightly too GOP)

[Sam Spade]

If there is a true national wave, Bass will lose. If not, he hangs on. It seems to be a seat that would perfectly into that category.

Whether Bass gets a bit wet or whether he's sitting underwater with other bass depends on the size of the wave.

Size of the wave has little to do with what happens with Bass, though he could be in less or more danger compared to the strength of the wave; where it hits the strongest is the most important question to ask.

This is often a very difficult question to answer and the polls rarely do it justice.  I don't think anyone came anywhere close in 1994 of saying that Washington State would be the epicenter of the wave that happened then.