Likelihood to win the nomination
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 08, 2024, 05:33:40 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Likelihood to win the nomination		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6
Author Topic: Likelihood to win the nomination  (Read 12801 times)
ScottieF
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 349


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #75 on: March 02, 2016, 02:08:37 PM »
Clinton 90
Sanders 10

Trump 75
Rubio 12
Cruz 8
Other 5
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #76 on: March 02, 2016, 02:16:22 PM »
Quote from: Castro on February 27, 2016, 08:37:46 PM
80% Trump
10% Rubio
6% Cruz
3% Kasich
1% Brokered Convention Compromise Pick (Romney)

Rating: Likely Trump

91% Clinton
9% Sanders

Rating: Likely/Safe Clinton

76% Trump
12% Cruz
6% Rubio
3% Kasich
3% Brokered Convention Compromise Pick (Romney)

Rating: Lean/Likely Trump

85% Clinton
15% Sanders

Rating: Likely Clinton
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,223
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #77 on: March 02, 2016, 03:24:49 PM »
Quote from: Californian Tony Returns on February 27, 2016, 08:30:41 PM
Quote from: Californian Tony Returns on February 21, 2016, 02:25:55 PM
Quote from: Californian Tony Returns on February 10, 2016, 04:16:58 PM
Quote from: Californian Tony Returns on February 08, 2016, 12:39:19 AM
Dem:

80% Hillary
20% Bernie


GOP:

35% Trump
30% Cruz
10% Rubio
8% Christie
7% Kasich
5% Bush
5% Someone else

Dem:

75% Hillary
25% Bernie


GOP:

55% Trump
25% Cruz
10% Kasich
5% Bush
5% Someone else

Dem:

90% Hillary
10% Bernie


GOP:

70% Trump
20% Rubio
5% Cruz
5% Someone else

Dem:

99% Hillary
1% Bernie


GOP:

80% Trump
13% Rubio
2% Cruz
5% Someone else

Dem:

99% Hillary
1% Bernie


GOP:

85% Trump
6% Cruz
3% Rubio
6% Someone else
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,636
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #78 on: March 02, 2016, 08:56:42 PM »
Clinton 95
Sanders 3
Other 2

Super Tuesday hurts, but Sanders real knock-out blow is the Ides of March IMO. The only way Hillary doesn't win is if she dies/gets indicted (which the chances are probably more than negligible, admittedly)

Trump 80
Cruz 8
Rubio 4
Other 8

At this stage Trump is probably the only one that can get a majority of delegates, but he is not guaranteed to do so. Cruz/Rubio combining and forming a unity ticket is possible but it comes down to whether Rubio's ego can handle being the Veep, especially given that unless something weird happens in the next month Cruz will have more delegates. A brokered convention is quite possible, so I wouldn't rule out a compromise candidate or shenanigans happening.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,965


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #79 on: March 02, 2016, 09:59:11 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on February 28, 2016, 12:10:28 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on February 24, 2016, 07:35:00 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on February 21, 2016, 02:15:16 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on February 10, 2016, 07:46:34 PM
Clinton 65
Sanders 35

Cruz 45
TRUMP 40
Rubio 10
Brokered Convention 5

Update following yesterday's failed stumpings on both sides:

Clinton 90
Sanders 5
Other 5

TRUMP 60
Rubio 35
Other 5

Post-Nevada

TRUMP 67
Rubio 30
Other 3

Post-South Carolina

Clinton 97
Other 2
Sanders 1

Post Super Tuesday:

Clinton 97
Other 2
Sanders 1

TRUMP 60
Rubio 20
Contested Convention 20
Logged
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,770
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #80 on: March 02, 2016, 10:02:33 PM »
Quote from: Sprouts Farmers Market on February 21, 2016, 02:08:28 PM
Hillary 98%
Hillary Dies, Replaced at convention 2%

TRUMP 85%
Rubio 12%
Cruz 3%


Hillary 97
Bernie 2
Biden/other 1

Trump 75
Brokered 20
Cruz 3
Rubio 2
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #81 on: March 05, 2016, 11:42:50 PM »
Trump - 75% (-5)
Cruz - 15% (+3)
Rubio - 5% (-3)
Brokered Convention - 5% (+5)

I'm giving Rubio a 5% chance simply for having any chance of winning Florida. He loses Florida, he becomes irrelevant. Democratic race stays the same.
Logged
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #82 on: March 05, 2016, 11:50:08 PM »
Dems
Clinton 92 (nc)
Sanders 8

GOP
Trumo 65 (-4)
Cruz 25 (+15)
Rubio 4 (-16)
Kasich 2 (+1)
Other 4
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,286
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #83 on: March 05, 2016, 11:53:41 PM »
Clinton 98
Sanders 2

Trump 75
Cruz 15
Other (brokered convention) 10
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #84 on: March 05, 2016, 11:54:15 PM »
Quote from: Castro on March 02, 2016, 02:16:22 PM
76% Trump
12% Cruz
6% Rubio
3% Kasich
3% Brokered Convention Compromise Pick (Romney)

Rating: Lean/Likely Trump

85% Clinton
15% Sanders

Rating: Likely Clinton

45% Trump
25% Cruz
10% Kasich
5% Rubio
15% Brokered Convention Compromise Pick (Romney)

Rating: Toss-Up

88% Clinton
12% Sanders

Rating: Likely Clinton
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,965


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #85 on: March 06, 2016, 02:35:02 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on March 02, 2016, 09:59:11 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on February 28, 2016, 12:10:28 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on February 24, 2016, 07:35:00 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on February 21, 2016, 02:15:16 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on February 10, 2016, 07:46:34 PM
Clinton 65
Sanders 35

Cruz 45
TRUMP 40
Rubio 10
Brokered Convention 5

Update following yesterday's failed stumpings on both sides:

Clinton 90
Sanders 5
Other 5

TRUMP 60
Rubio 35
Other 5

Post-Nevada

TRUMP 67
Rubio 30
Other 3

Post-South Carolina

Clinton 97
Other 2
Sanders 1

Post Super Tuesday:

Clinton 97
Other 2
Sanders 1

TRUMP 60
Rubio 20
Contested Convention 20

Contested convention is surging, folks.

TRUMP 55
Contested Convention 45
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #86 on: March 06, 2016, 02:36:07 PM »
80% TRUMP
15% Contested Convention
4% Cruz
1% Kasich
0% Rubio
Logged
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,749


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #87 on: March 06, 2016, 06:24:06 PM »
60% Brokered Convention
20% Trump
15% Cruz
5% Rubio

Note that one of those could also be nominated at a brokered convention.
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,600
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #88 on: March 06, 2016, 06:37:35 PM »
Trump: 50% (-5 from my Feb. 10th odds)
Cruz: 10% (-30)
Convention: 40% (something like +39)

Clinton: 95% (+15)
Sanders: 5% (-15)
Logged
Pragmatic Conservative
1184AZ
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,735


Political Matrix
E: 3.00, S: -0.41

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #89 on: March 06, 2016, 06:38:04 PM »
These are % for candidates chances to win the nomination w/o a brokered convention
45% Trump
10% Cruz
15% Rubio
1% Kasich
29% Brokered Convention  


% for candidates to win Nomination with a Brokered Convention
20% Trump
30% Cruz
25% Rubio
1% Kasich
15%  Mitt Romney  
9% Someone else


90% Clinton
10% Sanders
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,223
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #90 on: March 07, 2016, 02:10:09 PM »
Quote from: Californian Tony Returns on March 02, 2016, 03:24:49 PM
Quote from: Californian Tony Returns on February 27, 2016, 08:30:41 PM
Quote from: Californian Tony Returns on February 21, 2016, 02:25:55 PM
Quote from: Californian Tony Returns on February 10, 2016, 04:16:58 PM
Quote from: Californian Tony Returns on February 08, 2016, 12:39:19 AM
Dem:

80% Hillary
20% Bernie


GOP:

35% Trump
30% Cruz
10% Rubio
8% Christie
7% Kasich
5% Bush
5% Someone else

Dem:

75% Hillary
25% Bernie


GOP:

55% Trump
25% Cruz
10% Kasich
5% Bush
5% Someone else

Dem:

90% Hillary
10% Bernie


GOP:

70% Trump
20% Rubio
5% Cruz
5% Someone else

Dem:

99% Hillary
1% Bernie


GOP:

80% Trump
13% Rubio
2% Cruz
5% Someone else

Dem:

99% Hillary
1% Bernie


GOP:

85% Trump
6% Cruz
3% Rubio
6% Someone else

Dem:

99% Hillary
1% Bernie


GOP:

70% Trump
15% Cruz
1% Rubio
1% Kasich
13% Someone else
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #91 on: March 09, 2016, 12:55:09 AM »
Clinton: 88% (-4)
Sanders: 12% (+4)

No change for Republicans.
Logged
Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,772
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #92 on: March 09, 2016, 12:56:48 AM »
Clinton 95%
Sanders 5% (+2)

I'll wait for OH/IL/MO before moving him back to a double digit chance.
Logged
Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,772
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #93 on: March 09, 2016, 02:57:23 AM »
New Republican odds, after HI:

TRUMP 56
Cruz 23
Rubio 10
Kasich 3
Compromise Nominee 8
Logged
dax00
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,422


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #94 on: March 09, 2016, 06:35:05 AM »
I know I haven't given a prediction in a while, but here is mine as of now:

DNC
Clinton - 61%
Sanders - 38%
Other - 1%

RNC
Trump, outright - 28%
Cruz, outright - 24%
Rubio, outright - < 1%
Trump, convention - 20%
Cruz, convention - 21%
Rubio, convention - 4%
Other, convention - 3%
Logged
SUSAN CRUSHBONE
evergreen
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,735
Antarctica


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #95 on: March 09, 2016, 07:10:22 AM »
Quote from: əɹɐɯʇɥᵷᴉu uəəɹᵷɹəʌə on February 24, 2016, 05:41:25 PM
at this point
85% clinton
15% sanders

75% trump
15% rubio
5% cruz
5% ?

80% clinton
20% sanders

85% trump
5% cruz
5% kasich
5% ?
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,223
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #96 on: March 09, 2016, 12:14:32 PM »
Quote from: Californian Tony Returns on March 07, 2016, 02:10:09 PM
Quote from: Californian Tony Returns on March 02, 2016, 03:24:49 PM
Quote from: Californian Tony Returns on February 27, 2016, 08:30:41 PM
Quote from: Californian Tony Returns on February 21, 2016, 02:25:55 PM
Quote from: Californian Tony Returns on February 10, 2016, 04:16:58 PM
Quote from: Californian Tony Returns on February 08, 2016, 12:39:19 AM
Dem:

80% Hillary
20% Bernie


GOP:

35% Trump
30% Cruz
10% Rubio
8% Christie
7% Kasich
5% Bush
5% Someone else

Dem:

75% Hillary
25% Bernie


GOP:

55% Trump
25% Cruz
10% Kasich
5% Bush
5% Someone else

Dem:

90% Hillary
10% Bernie


GOP:

70% Trump
20% Rubio
5% Cruz
5% Someone else

Dem:

99% Hillary
1% Bernie


GOP:

80% Trump
13% Rubio
2% Cruz
5% Someone else

Dem:

99% Hillary
1% Bernie


GOP:

85% Trump
6% Cruz
3% Rubio
6% Someone else

Dem:

99% Hillary
1% Bernie


GOP:

70% Trump
15% Cruz
1% Rubio
1% Kasich
13% Someone else

Dem:

95% Hillary
5% Bernie


GOP:

80% Drumpf
7% Cruz
1% Kasich
12% Someone else
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #97 on: March 16, 2016, 12:07:58 AM »
After tonight...

Democrats:

Clinton: 96% (+8)
Sanders: 4% (-8)

Rating: Safe Clinton

Republicans:

Trump: 85% (+10)
Cruz: 5% (-10)
Contested Convention: 10% (+5)

Rating: Likely Trump
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,636
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #98 on: March 16, 2016, 12:10:09 AM »
Clinton: 98%
Other: 2%

Trump: 80%
Cruz: 10%
Other: 10%
Logged
Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,772
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #99 on: March 16, 2016, 12:13:17 AM »
Clinton: 98%
Freak Scenario (Indictment, Death, Sanders wins the remaining contests by landslides): 2%

TRUMP - 69%
Cruz - 15%
Kasich - 9%
Compromise Nominee - 7%
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.063 seconds with 12 queries.