Likelihood to win the nomination (user search)
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  Likelihood to win the nomination (search mode)
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Author Topic: Likelihood to win the nomination  (Read 13016 times)
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

« on: February 22, 2016, 01:58:26 AM »

Trump 50
Rubio 30
Cruz 19
Kasich 1

Clinton 85
Sanders 15
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2016, 08:29:12 PM »

Clinton 90 (+5)
Sanders 10 (-5)

Trump 60 (+10)
Rubio 29 (-1)
Cruz 10 (-9)
Kasich 1 (nc)
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2016, 02:26:20 AM »

Clinton 92 (+2)
Sanders 8 (-2)

Trump 69 (+9)
Rubio 20 (-9)
Cruz 10 (nc)
Kasich 1 (nc)
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

« Reply #3 on: March 05, 2016, 11:50:08 PM »

Dems
Clinton 92 (nc)
Sanders 8

GOP
Trumo 65 (-4)
Cruz 25 (+15)
Rubio 4 (-16)
Kasich 2 (+1)
Other 4
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2016, 12:24:25 AM »

Clinton 98% (+6)
Sanders 2% (-6) (off chance health/FBI makes her resign)

Trump 75 (+10)
Cruz 15 (-10)
Kasich 5 (+3)
Other 5 (+1)
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

« Reply #5 on: April 27, 2016, 12:23:01 AM »

Because you people are hysterical and overreact to everything. First it was Cruz's win in Wisconsin that was CONTESTED CONVENTION GUARANTEED!!! Now this and its a guaranteed Trump nomination. If you actually work through the math, as I've been doing, its still very possible to find a way for Cruz to stop Trump. I wouldn't extrapolate his crazy weak performance in Northeastern contests to other states. I think Trump is favored at this point, but he's not a strong front runner by any means. I'm not one to brag, but I'm pretty dang proud that I was highly skeptical of Cruz winning the nomination from the beginning of April.

Sorry, that's my rant. I'm just so sick of the prognosticators on this forum having the mood swings of a teenage girl.
The biggest reason to be bullish on Trump right now is that he is gaining in the polls in CA. We can't expect him to underperform polling anymore, and since it is WTA by district even a narrow Trump win would get him enough to win on the first ballot.
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