Likelihood to win the nomination

[morgieb]

Clinton 95
Sanders 3
Other 2

Super Tuesday hurts, but Sanders real knock-out blow is the Ides of March IMO. The only way Hillary doesn't win is if she dies/gets indicted (which the chances are probably more than negligible, admittedly)

Trump 80
Cruz 8
Rubio 4
Other 8

At this stage Trump is probably the only one that can get a majority of delegates, but he is not guaranteed to do so. Cruz/Rubio combining and forming a unity ticket is possible but it comes down to whether Rubio's ego can handle being the Veep, especially given that unless something weird happens in the next month Cruz will have more delegates. A brokered convention is quite possible, so I wouldn't rule out a compromise candidate or shenanigans happening.

[morgieb]

Clinton: 98%
Other: 2%

Trump: 80%
Cruz: 10%
Other: 10%

[morgieb]

Clinton: 99%
Other (indictment, death, etc.): 1%

Trump: 75%
Cruz: 17%
Kasich: 5%
Convention Dark Horse: 2%

[morgieb]

At this stage both are 99%+. (i.e. require a freak scenario to lose the nomination)