2011 French Senate Election

[Antonio the Sixth]

Elections will be held in France on September 25, to renew half of the country's Senate (upper house). French Senators are elected in each departement, by an "electoral college" composed by 95% of municipal delegates. Every 3 years, half of departements are up for reelection (so that a Senate term lasts 6 terms overall). The renewed departements are the light-shaded ones in this map :



Even though the Senate has always been held by the right (or the center) since its creation in 1876, the left has made considerable gains with the 2004 and 2008 elections, mostly thanks to their excellent results in the various local elections held since this date.

Currently, left-wing parties hold 152 of the 341 senate seats, against 179 for the right (10 seats are occupied by centrists). After this month, there will be 348, so 175 will be needed to reach absolute majority. The left needs to gain 23 seats to take over the House. Considering they gained 21 in 2008, it means for the first time Senate majority is at stake. That's why there are so much talks about elections which are usually ignored by the medias.

Waiting for the results of this historical event, we can use this thread to discuss about the situation in various departements, follow the news and make predictions about the results (even though personally I'll refrain from that due to my ignorance ; obviously I'm talking about Fabien, Hash and maybe Benoît ).

[big bad fab]

Overall, the series nr.1 has more rightist departements or "big" leftist departements where the right has already lost a lot.
But it doesn't mean that it will be easy for the right, because it's deeply divided in Paris and Hauts-de-Seine, for example.
This individualistic trend among the right is clearly a sign of pessimism inside it.

But, as it can be possible with proportional representation among 5, 6 or 8 seats, it can be better to have 2 or 3 lists sometimes. Sometimes, it may also be suicidal of course. But that's completely unpredictable.
What is more important is that the momentum isn't in favour of the right.

I still think the most probable result will be a Senate without any majority.
Not because of the RDSE group (which is clearly spread between left radicals and right radicals), but because of the centrists, who are deeply divided in many small wings:
- what we can call "Orange Khmers" (those loyal to Bayrou, in life and death),
- rightist MoDems (who were formerly followers of Michel Mercier, now Justice Minister),
- Jean Arthuis and the centrist centrists of his Alliance Centriste (which has not yet rallied the ARES of Borloo but which does not want to quit the "majority" while keeping on meeting Bayrou regularly...),
- some non-affiliated, who would be happy to see Arthuis, Borloo, Nouveau Centre and the MoDem "grands élus" (i.e. without Bayrou-Sarnez-Gourault and all the "modern" young members who remain from the 2007 frenziness) gather in only one movement,
- independent-minded Nouveau Centre members, who follow Borloo's "adventure" and do want to show autonomy from the UMP,
- followers of Hervé Morin inside the Nouveau Centre, who are rightist but do want to annoy the UMP and also Borloo just for the love of Morin,
- traditional local Nouveau Centre barons, who are clearly linked to the UMP.

So, Larcher may be able to be reelected president with a quiet consentment of all these wings... if the UMP has a plurality or even if the left has only a plurality.
The right would have anyway lost the election, but would erase any negative effect in the medias, due to the smiling and round face of Larcher.

If the left has a majority, Jean-Pierre Bel (the current president of socialist group, since 2004) should be elected.
He is supporting Hollande in the PS presidential primary and that would give the latter some good photo opportunities: "victory", "respectability",...

What is surprising is that there is no other candidacies inside the PS. Bel isn't a bad guy at all. But there are bigger names than Bel:
Robert Badinter, Catherine Tasca, Jean-Pierre Sueur, Jean-Noël Guérini (oops ), Gérard Collomb, François Rebsamen, François Patriat, Jean-Pierre Masseret.
The last 4 are anyway Hollande supporters and may all dream of something else in the future government.
Tasca and Sueur support Aubry but don't seem to be able to rally votes outside the PS (they are former Rocardians and too moderate for communists and Greens).
Badinter hasn't said anything on the primary I think and is maybe too old.
None of them has stated any interest in the Senate presidency.

Sure, Poncelet became Senate president. But even him (and Monory and Poncelet) were of bigger political influence (at least in the past), than Bel, who is only a local politician from Ariège, a very, very small department, completely sidelined in France.

But the PS is currently so eager not to fall in bloody onternal fightings that "the oldest with the highest rank" has been nominated .

[MaxQue]

I thought than Badinter was retiring, no?

[big bad fab]

I thought than Badinter was retiring, no?

Yeah, you're right, he won't be candidate again.
I wasn't clear; I wanted to say that, during PS internal debates, he hasn't emerged as a possibility.
(he had alaready said that he would retire in 2004 and didn't do it; he could have waited a bit more, had the PS made it his candidate for the presidency)

[Antonio the Sixth]

After reading Fab's comment, I'd bet on a deadlocked Senate, without an absolute majority but with a left plurality. Of course that's a clueless prediction, but what I'm sure about is that the right won't retain its majority. Still, since these are indirect elections, we really can't be sure of anything.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Who are allowed to vote (e.g. Paris)?

Overal, around 70.000 people, 95% of them being representatives of municipalities, the other being general/regional councilors and MPs.

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The parties, like for everything else. There is obviously no primary. There are, however, a lot of "dissident lists", in departements where a party didn't manage to please all the bigwigs.

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I think you must be over 30 or 35, otherwise don't know.

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I think it's likely, yes. I don't really know how it works, but since around 40% of the electoral college hasn't any partisan affiliation (mostly little town representatives), personal affinities, influence networks and traditions matter a lot.

[MaxQue]

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I think you must be over 30 or 35, otherwise don't know.

Law was changed, it is 24 now. Anybody who is able to find enough candidates can run. There is no joke candidaties because it is quite humiliating if you receive no votes, I suppose.

[Antonio the Sixth]

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I think you must be over 30 or 35, otherwise don't know.

Law was changed, it is 24 now. Anybody who is able to find enough candidates can run. There is no joke candidaties because it is quite humiliating if you receive no votes, I suppose.

Really ? Laudable effort to make younger what is mostly a rest-home for "has-been" politicians. Obviously that won't make the median age go below 60.

[Hash]

Also, those departments with over 4 seats are elected by some form of PR, others by absolute majority.

Isère, Maine-et-Loire, Oise, Réunion and New Caledonia all gained one seat.

Incumbents:
Indre-et-Loire: 1 PS, 1 PCF; 1 UMP
Isere: 1 PS, 1 PCF; 2 UMP
Jura: 1 UMP, 1 RDSE-UMP
Landes: 2 PS
Loir-et-Cher: 1 vacant (formerly UC-NC), 1 UC-MoDem
Loire: 2 UMP; 1 PCF, 1 PS
Haute-Loire: 1 UC-NC, 1 UMP
Loire-Atlantique: 3 UMP; 1 PS, 1 PG
Loiret: 2 UMP; 1 PS
Lot: 1 RDSE-PRG, 1 PS
Lot-et-Garonne: 1 UMP, 1 UC-AC
Lozere: 1 UMP
Maine-et-Loire: 2 UMP; 1 PS
Manche: 2 UMP; 1 PS
Marne: 2 UC-AC, 1 UMP
Haute-Marne: 2 UMP
Mayenne: 2 UC-AC
Meurthe-et-Moselle: 2 UMP; 1 PS, 1 PCF
Meuse: 1 UC-NC, 1 PS
Morbihan: 1 UMP, 1 UC-AC; 1 PS
Moselle: 3 PS; 1 UMP; 1 RASNAG-DVD (hates bloggers)
Nièvre: 2 PS
Nord: 3 PS, 1 Green, 2 PCF; 1 UC-NC, 1 UMP; 2 RASNAG-DVD
Oise: 2 UMP, 1 PS
Orne: 1 UMP 1 vacant (formerly UMP)
Pas-de-Calais: 3 PS, 1 PCF; 2 UMP; 1 UC-MoDem
Puy-de-Dôme: 2 PS, 1 UMP
Pyrénées-Atlantiques: 1 UMP, 1 UC-MoDem; 1 PS
Hautes-Pyrénées: 1 PS, 1 RDSE-PRG
Pyrénées-Orientales: 2 UMP
Paris: 4 PS, 2 Greens, 1 PCF; 4 UMP, 1 UC-NC
Seine-et-Marne: 3 UMP; 2 PS, 1 PCF
Yvelines: 4 UMP, 1 UC-MoDem; 1 PS
Essonne: 1 PCF, 1 PG, 1 PS; 2 UMP
Hauts-de-Seine:  4 UMP, 1 UC-MoDem; 1 PS, 1 PCF
Seine-Saint-Denis: 2 PCF, 1 PS, 1 Green; 2 UMP
Val-de-Marne: 2 PCF, 1 PS; 2 UMP, 1 UC-MoDem
Val-d'Oise: 2 PS, 1 MUP; 2 UMP
Guadeloupe: 1 PS-GUSR; 1 RDSE-GUSR/GM, 1 UMP
Martinique: 2 app PS
Reunion: 1 UC, 1 UMP; 1 PCR
Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon: 1 UMP
Mayotte: 1 UC-MDM, 1 UMP
New Caledonia: 1 UMP-LMD
French abroad: 5 UMP, 1 PS

[big bad fab]

Ethelbert, for the "grands électeurs" representing each commune:

- 1 delegate for communes under 500 inhabitants,
- 3 delegates between 500 and 1499
- 5 between 1500 and 2499
- 7 between 2500 and 3499
- 15 between 3500 and 8999 (in all these categories, there are less delegates than municipal counsellors, so the delegates are nominated by the majority of the municipal council)
- every municipal counsellor is a delegate above 9000 inhabitants
- one delegate is added for every 1000 inhabitants above a total of 30 000 inhabitants
(these delegates are in fact "politicized" simple citizens: they are loyal to the party which has a mjority in the municipal council)

So, yes, small communes, mostly rural and rightist, are over-represented, BUT, with all the left's gains in 2008 municipal elections, the left isn't in a so bad position, especially in big and middle-sized cities.

[big bad fab]

- In case of a plurality for the left, another hypothesis for the presidential seat would be a center-left candidate...

Why not Jean-Michel Baylet ?
It would explain his candidacy in the PS primary (in part; the other part being the number of PRG députés negotiated with the PS, which is under Green pressure...).

This is a possibility that seems to be whispered these days.

Of course, Baylet would have some opponents, as he has had some judicial problems (but who has none ?) and as, inside his own party and departement, Yvon Collin (president of the RDSE group) was reluctant to his candidacy in the PS primary.

- In case of a rightist plurality, some center-right candidate may fit the requirements.
Arthuis is too "harsh" for Sarkozy and for many senators.
But Zocchetto (from the same Alliance centriste, but more acceptable for the right) would probably have a chance.

Why not Bockel, though the so-called "ouverture" of Sarkozy is a bit out-of-date now.

Valérie Létard would be a fine choice for the right, in order to weaken and/or please Borloo (which is the same, in a way ).

Of course, Sarkozy would make a big "coup" by pushing... Chevènement, who would be so pleased to hold a great position before his personal end and who would be more difficult to manage for the left than for the right !!!

- Neither the left nor the right has any interest in having a MoDem president of the Senate, so forget this. So, I don't think any MoDem would have a chance, though Borotra or Vanlerenberghe would probably gather votes across the aisles.

In case of no clear majority, each side would be well inspired to find someone able to gather votes from the other side in a secret ballott. Unfortunately, people like Etienne Dailly or Jacques Pelletier aren't any longer in the Senate.

Let's not forget that Montesquiou or François-Poncet (really too old I think, but...) may be such a candidate for the right and Alfonsi and Vendasi (Corsican PRG) for the left.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, keeping on the "radical" tradition of Senate would make sense, of course. And anyways, the Presidency is a symbolic office which matters only for a side to claim victory in the medias.

[big bad fab]

Oh, I was just playing with a favourite toy:
utterly USELESS political speculation

I'm a child of kremlinology, you know...
I miss so much the Soviet cadres policy

[greenforest32]

Even though the Senate has always been held by the right (or the center) since its creation in 1876, the left has made considerable gains with the 2004 and 2008 elections, mostly thanks to their excellent results in the various local elections held since this date.

What?! The left has never held a majority in the French Senate? Why? How?

[Hash]

Even though the Senate has always been held by the right (or the center) since its creation in 1876, the left has made considerable gains with the 2004 and 2008 elections, mostly thanks to their excellent results in the various local elections held since this date.

What?! The left has never held a majority in the French Senate? Why? How?

The Senate is elected by an electoral college made up in huge majority by small-town councillors, thus over-representing the weight of small-c conservative rural France and small towns. Then, the Senate has traditionally been the upper house for notables and party barons.

As thus, the parties which have been strong in the Senate have been disproportionately the moderate parties, which are by far and large parties with strong small-town networks and networks of notables. Historically, the more left and right-wing factions (Socialists, PCF, Gaullists) have been weak while the dominant forces have been the centrists, liberals and Radicals. During the Third Republic, the Senate was traditionally Radical, the Radicals being by then a moderate party of notables and local barons with strong local government bases and networks. Of course, if you consider the Radicals as left-wing... then the Senate has been 'left-wing' in the past but the Socialists have never held it.

Mainstream PS and RPR/UMP strength/dominance in small-town local government is rather new, and even then most villages are governed by non-partisan mayors.

[greenforest32]

Even though the Senate has always been held by the right (or the center) since its creation in 1876, the left has made considerable gains with the 2004 and 2008 elections, mostly thanks to their excellent results in the various local elections held since this date.

What?! The left has never held a majority in the French Senate? Why? How?

The Senate is elected by an electoral college made up in huge majority by small-town councillors, thus over-representing the weight of small-c conservative rural France and small towns. Then, the Senate has traditionally been the upper house for notables and party barons.

As thus, the parties which have been strong in the Senate have been disproportionately the moderate parties, which are by far and large parties with strong small-town networks and networks of notables. Historically, the more left and right-wing factions (Socialists, PCF, Gaullists) have been weak while the dominant forces have been the centrists, liberals and Radicals. During the Third Republic, the Senate was traditionally Radical, the Radicals being by then a moderate party of notables and local barons with strong local government bases and networks. Of course, if you consider the Radicals as left-wing... then the Senate has been 'left-wing' in the past but the Socialists have never held it.

Mainstream PS and RPR/UMP strength/dominance in small-town local government is rather new, and even then most villages are governed by non-partisan mayors.

Interesting. Thanks for the explanation.

[big bad fab]

Overall, the series nr.1 has more rightist departements or "big" leftist departements where the right has already lost a lot.
But it doesn't mean that it will be easy for the right, because it's deeply divided in Paris and Hauts-de-Seine, for example.
This individualistic trend among the right is clearly a sign of pessimism inside it.

But, as it can be possible with proportional representation among 5, 6 or 8 seats, it can be better to have 2 or 3 lists sometimes. Sometimes, it may also be suicidal of course. But that's completely unpredictable.
What is more important is that the momentum isn't in favour of the right.

I still think the most probable result will be a Senate without any majority.
Not because of the RDSE group (which is clearly spread between left radicals and right radicals), but because of the centrists, who are deeply divided in many small wings:
- what we can call "Orange Khmers" (those loyal to Bayrou, in life and death),
- rightist MoDems (who were formerly followers of Michel Mercier, now Justice Minister),
- Jean Arthuis and the centrist centrists of his Alliance Centriste (which has not yet rallied the ARES of Borloo but which does not want to quit the "majority" while keeping on meeting Bayrou regularly...),
- some non-affiliated, who would be happy to see Arthuis, Borloo, Nouveau Centre and the MoDem "grands élus" (i.e. without Bayrou-Sarnez-Gourault and all the "modern" young members who remain from the 2007 frenziness) gather in only one movement,
- independent-minded Nouveau Centre members, who follow Borloo's "adventure" and do want to show autonomy from the UMP,
- followers of Hervé Morin inside the Nouveau Centre, who are rightist but do want to annoy the UMP and also Borloo just for the love of Morin,
- traditional local Nouveau Centre barons, who are clearly linked to the UMP.

So, Larcher may be able to be reelected president with a quiet consentment of all these wings... if the UMP has a plurality or even if the left has only a plurality.
The right would have anyway lost the election, but would erase any negative effect in the medias, due to the smiling and round face of Larcher.

If the left has a majority, Jean-Pierre Bel (the current president of socialist group, since 2004) should be elected.
He is supporting Hollande in the PS presidential primary and that would give the latter some good photo opportunities: "victory", "respectability",...

What is surprising is that there is no other candidacies inside the PS. Bel isn't a bad guy at all. But there are bigger names than Bel:
Robert Badinter, Catherine Tasca, Jean-Pierre Sueur, Jean-Noël Guérini (oops ), Gérard Collomb, François Rebsamen, François Patriat, Jean-Pierre Masseret.
The last 4 are anyway Hollande supporters and may all dream of something else in the future government.
Tasca and Sueur support Aubry but don't seem to be able to rally votes outside the PS (they are former Rocardians and too moderate for communists and Greens).
Badinter hasn't said anything on the primary I think and is maybe too old.
None of them has stated any interest in the Senate presidency.

Sure, Poncelet became Senate president. But even him (and Monory and Poncelet) were of bigger political influence (at least in the past), than Bel, who is only a local politician from Ariège, a very, very small department, completely sidelined in France.

But the PS is currently so eager not to fall in bloody onternal fightings that "the oldest with the highest rank" has been nominated .

She has just said that she'll probably be a candidate inside the PS group, against Bel.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let's just hope that won't lead to divisions...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tomorrow is the "grand jour".

I'll be crossing finger, because if the left wins this will be a historic moment - maybe even more important than 2012 presidential and legislatives.

[Hash]

Anybody interested in a brief, uneducated department-by-department overview?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anybody interested in a brief, uneducated department-by-department overview?

*raises hand frenetically*

[Hash]

Indre-et-Loire (2-1) Nothing much to be expected in terms of major changes. PCF Senator Marie-France Beaufils could be defeated by a Socialist. Mayor of Tours Jean Germain (PS) will be elected.

Isère (2-2 + 1) A very much divided right, an extra seat up for grabs. The PS-PCF list headed by president of the CG André Vallini will certainly win two seats, with a third one increasingly certain too. The right is divided into four lists: the official UMP list headed by Senator Bernard Saugey, the dissident UMP list with Michel Savin, the DVD-centrist list with Daniel Vitte (DVD, president of the association of local mayors) and Philippe Langenieux-Villard's other UMP dissident list. The left should profit from the utter division to take 3/5 seats, with a potential for 4/5 seats - even if the PS faces competition from the Greenies. +1 or +2 for the left.

Jura (0-2) Two right-wing incumbents: Gérard Bailly and Gilbert Barbier (RDSE) are running for reelection. They face the opposition of former UMP regional councillor Sylvie Vermeillet (DVD) and the left headed by Denis Vuillermoz (PS). Nobody knows whether the left can take one seat here. nc or +1 for the left.

Landes (2-0) Boring. Two PS holds. next.

Loir-et-Cher (0-1 + 1 vacant) One MoDem Senator, Jacqueline Gourault, likely to be reelected. A second seat closely fought between Minister of the City Maurice Leroy (NC) and Romorantin-Lanthenay mayor Jeanny Lorgeoux (PS). Leroy seems to know that his election isn't certain, as he's pulling out all the stops. nc or +1 for the left.

Loire (2-2) A closely fought department between Senator Bernard Fournier's UMP list and Senator Jean-Claude Frécon's PS list. The issue remains whether Maurice Vincent, PS mayor of Saint-Etienne, will win a third seat for the left or whether Senator Christiane Longère (UMP) will hold her seat. There is also the chance that the NC, running alone, might win a seat... nc or +1 for the left.

Haute-Loire (0-2) One retiring UMP senator here. UC-NC Senator Jean Boyer to hold his seat, DVD president of the CG Gérard Roche likely to win the second one.

Loire-Atlantique (2-3) The right has a lot to lose here, where local governance has undergone quite a sea change since 2001. The sole incumbent of all 5 running again, UMP Senator André Trillard is running again and will win. The left hopes and will probably get an extra seat. The PS-EELV-PCF list is led by regional councillor    Yannick Vaugrenard, with a Greenie in the third position and quite likely to win. UMP faces Saint-Sebastien-sur-Loire mayor Joël Guerriau (NC)'s rival list. +1 for the left (outside chance of +2??)

Loiret (1-2) The right is apparently hoping to gain a seat from the left here, probably because of the PS' division between 3 candidates (+2 PCF candidates). PS Senator Jean-Pierre Sueur could be the victim of a potential rightie gain. Still not counting on it, though. nc or -1 for the left.

Lot (2-0) Nothing to see. The PS will win a seat, the PRG will hold the seat of retiring PRG incumbent Jean Milhau. Moving along.

Lot-et-Garonne (0-2) Two retiring righties. Left hoping to gain a seat with the president of the CG, Pierre Camani. Leading right-wingers are Alain Merly (PR) and Henri Tandonnet (NC). +1 for the left

Lozère (0-1) One of the key contests. Senator and former president of the CR Jacques Blanc (UMP) is running for reelection against Alain Bertrand, PS mayor of Mende. The race is apparently very close. nc or +1 for the left. Has this department ever elected a socialist?

Maine-et-Loire (1-2 +1) Divided right, divided left. The official PS list is headed by Daniel Raoul, incumbent, and features a Greenie in second. The UMP list is headed by... wait for it... Christophe Béchu, candidate for every election in the world (municipal, EU, regional, cantonal). Senator Catherine Deroche (UMP) second behind him. Also a centrist list led by Christian Gillet (NC) and a DVD list led by Isabelle Leroy. The new seat closely fought between the right and the left. nc or +1 for the left, nc or +1 for the right.

Manche (1-2) The left is apparently conceding Senator Jean-Pierre Godefroy (PS)'s seat. 3 UMP senators seem likely. -1 for the left.

Marne (0-3) The left doesn't seem to have the numbers to gain a seat. 2 AC and 1 UMP are likely to win.

Haute-Marne (0-2) 3 UMP candidates for 2 UMP seats, bit of a headache, but the left can't win here.

Mayenne (0-2) Arthuis and Zocchetto (both AC) will win.

Meurthe-et-Moselle(2-2) Right is divided between two lists, the PS-PCF is united. The left will hold its two seats, the right will hold its two seats. Wouldn't know enough, but a leftie gain of one seems unlikely.

Meuse (0-2) A very chaotic situation on the right which may or may not profit to Jean-Louis Dumont (MP). The two incumbents: Claude Biwer (AC) and Claude Léonard (UMP) are both running for reelection. Biwer is old and is a bit of a crook, so he seems to be set to lose. Léonard faces two key rivals: Christian Namy, UMP president of the CG and Gérard Longuet, Minister of Defense. The left probably doesn't have the numbers to profit from this, but as Bieber would say, never say never. nc for the left, outside chance of +1

Morbihan (1-2) The right is aggressively fighting to take Senator Odette Herviaux's (PS) seat. Senator Joseph Kergueris (AC) is running for reelection and will probably win. MP-mayor of Plouay Jacques Le Nay (UMP) is eyeing a seat too. Last but not least, the big candidacy is that of the president of the CG and MP François Goulard (RS-DVD). Goulard, Le Nay or Herviaux for the third seat? nc or -1 for the left.

Moselle (3-2) The right would like to gain a seat from the PS, probably from the president of the CR Jean-Pierre Masseret (he's a Senator too) who is third on the PS list. It hopes to profit from a Green list, but the right is divided too: Senator Jean-Louis Masson (DVD, NI), Senator Philippe Leroy's UMP list and MP François Grosdidier (also UMP) on a dissident list. nc or -1 for the left (I'd go with no change).

Nièvre (2-0) nothing to see. Moving along...

Nord (6-5) The right has a lot to lose here. It is very divided with 5 lists: Senator Jacques Legendre (UMP) on one list, Jean-René Lecerf-Valérie Létard (both incumbents, UMP and NC) on another, Alex Türk-Sylvie Desmarescaux (both incumbents, DVD-NI) on another, and two smaller lists. The PCF can afford to go it alone here and save their two seats, but one of their incumbents Ivan Renar (MUP, Robert Hue's party) is staging a dissident list. A PS-EELV list headed by Michel Delebarre with Green incumbent Marie-Christine Blandin in fourth. The right could pay a big price for being divided. A loss of one is almost certain, giving the left a 7-4 advantage. But it could also a second seat and give the left a 8-3 advantage. Will Legendre, Lecerf and Türk be able to win only one seat for their lists? Or will one of them save their running mates like Létard or Desmarescaux? +1 or +2 for the left.

Oise (1-2 +1) Finally a clean, simple fight. The UMP's list is headed by Philippe Marini, senator and Beauvais mayor Caroline Cayeux in second and senator Alain Vasselle in third. The left's list is led by president of the CG Yves Rome and with Laurence Rossignol, vp of the CR, in second. Can the left win the extra seat, or will the right take it? +1 for either left or right, probs left.

Orne (0-1 +1 vacant) Nathalie Goulet (UC) will be reelected. Mortagne-au-Perche mayor Jean-Claude Lenoir (UMP) likely to win the second seat. Hard to see the lefties win here.

Pas-de-Calais (4-3) Divided situations on both left and right. The PS list is headed by Senator Daniel Percheron, president of the CR and has 3 incumbent MPs after him on the list. He needs to face Senator Michel Sergent's dissidence on the left, a PCF list (it can afford to go alone) and a EELV list. The right is divided with two small rival centre-right lists against the big UMP-MoDem list. The right is led by MoDem senator Jean-Marie Vanlerenberghe (the one who scares the kids with his face) with Calais mayor Natacha Bouchart in second. The right doesn't seem to be able to save the third seat... +1 for the left.

Puy-de-Dôme (2-1) A divided left, but with a right still likely to lose its sole seat. The PS contenders are Michèle André (incumbent) and Alain Néri MP. There is  Tony Bernard (PG) who apparently seems to be in a good position too. Finally, there is the DVG president of the CG Jean-Yves Gouttebel who is likely to win, and could bring Pierrette Daffix-Ray (DVG) with him too. The PS could be left without a sole senator here, where the 2008 expulsion crisis has dwindled its ranks... but it's not like the UMP will benefit. +1 for the left.

PART TWO... NEXT.

[Hash]

Pyrénées-Atlantiques (1-2) The last three presidents of the CG are each vying for a seat: the incumbent president Georges Labazée (PS), his predecessor Jean Castaings (UMP) and finally that guy's predecessor, Jean-Jacques Lasserre (MoDem). There's also Senator Annie Jarraud-Vergnolle (PS) favoured to win reelection. It seems as if the PS will win two seats, while the final seat will probably go to Lasserre and not Castaings. +1 for the left. btw, go PNV!

Hautes-Pyrénées (2-0) Nothing to see. Move along.

Pyrénées-Orientales (0-2) The left hopes to win the seat of retiring UMP Senator Paul Blanc through the candidacy of Frechiste president of the CR Christian Bourquin (DVG). That seems likely enough... Jean-Paul Alduy (UMP) will be reelected. +1 for the left.

Paris (7-5) The big race of the elections (duh, it's Paris), with big loses for the right and nice gains for the left likely. The local UMP is basically in shambles and everybody in there hates each other. The right is divided: the official UMP list headed by Sports Minister Chantal Jouanno with incumbents Philippe Dominati and Catherine Dumas in the next two spots; the dissident list led by Pierre Charon, a former aide to Sarkozy and local councillor and Senator Yves Pozzo di Borgo's NC list. The left, in contrast, is united behind Senator Jean-Pierre Caffet's PS-EELV-PCF list. Big names on that list: Senator Jean Desessard (EELV), Marie-Noëlle Lienemann, Senator Roger Madec (PS), Senator Nicole Borvo Cohen-Seat (PCF), Senator David Assouline (PS) and PCF boss Pierre Laurent in 9th. The loss of one seat by the right is certain. The loss of a second seat is also likely, leading the UMP to say that voting Charon is voting for a communist (Pierre Laurent). At worst, it seems like Charon/Jouanno/Dominati will win for the right. +1 or +2 for the left

Seine-et-Marne (3-3) A divided right: the official UMP list with the 3 incumbents, a NC list and a ARES list led by former cabinet minister Yves Jégo (now with Borloo). Yves Jégo's list angered the local bigwigs (Copé and Jacob). The left is united, and is certain to hold its 3 seats but a gain is still unlikely. nc or maybe +1 for the left.

Yvelines (1-5) The PS might benefit here from, wait for it, a divided right! Gérard Larcher's UMP list faces a DVD list led by Chesnay mayor Philippe Brillault, a MoDem-centrist list led by Senator Roselle Cros and a NC list. The PS could add a second seat with Philippe Esnol, mayor of Conflans-Sainte Honorine. Uncertainty over whether the UMP will sweep the remaining seats, or if Brillaut could win. +1 for the left.

Essonne (3-2) Chaos! The right is divided, badly: Senator Laurent Beteille's first UMP list and Senator-criminal Serge Dassault's second UMP list (+3 smaller lists, one led by the Radical mayor of Massy). The left's official slate is led by Jean-Vincent Placé, EELV's particularly distasteful attack dog. This led to the dissidence of former president of the CG and former MP Michel Berson (PS). The left will hold 3, the right 2 but who will be the winners? On the left, will Berson take the third leftie seat from PCF Senator Bernard Véra/on the right, will Beteille take a seat from Dassault's list?

Hauts-de-Seine (2-5) lol @ the right in the 92. They never cease to amaze with their intense hatred of each other. The big official UMP list is led by Roger Karoutchi, with Isabelle Debré in second, Balkany's friend Georges Siffredi in third and Isabelle Balkany in fourth (NKM's daddy is in 7th). He faces first the dissident list led by senator Jacques Gautier (UMP) with Jean-Pierre Schosteck in third. Then there's the MoDem list led by senator Denis Badré with Arnaud de Courson, who defeated Balkany in March in the cantonals in third. Then there's Hervé Marseille (NC), mayor of Meudon with his own list with André Santini in a symbolic last place. And a smaller dvd list with Hugues Sirven-Viénot. The left is quite likely to gain a seat with this chaotic mess. Its list is headed by Clamart mayor Philippe Kaltenbach with the PCF incumbent in second and a Greenie in third. But it faces a rival PG list with Pascale Le Néouannic, regional councillor. Ok, the left's gain goes to EELV. But how do the other 4 rightie seats split? 2 for Karoutchi-Debré, 1 each for Gautier and Marseille? Does Denis Badré manage reelection, perhaps at Marseille's expense? +1 for the left.

Seine-Saint-Denis (4-2) The right in precarious situation: one retiring incumbent, two lists (UMP and NC). The PCF, of course, going it alone - it can afford it here; a PS-EELV list. The left will certainly gain one seat, with the PCF holding its 2 seats despite Jack Ralite's retirement. +1 for the left.

Val-de-Marne (3-3) A divided right: the official UMP list with the 2 UMP incumbents led by Christian Cambon, MoDem Senator Jean-Jacques Jégou's list and Vincennes mayor Laurent Lafon's NC list. The PS-PCF-EELV are united in a single list, and could profit from the right's division with a potential gain. nc or +1 for the left.

Val-d'Oise (3-2) A divided right, aren't you tired of hearing that? Here we go again: senator Hugues Portelli's UMP list with president of the CG Arnaud Bazin (DVD) in third. Franconville mayor Francis Delattre's official (?) UMP list. Philippe Sueur, mayor of Enghien-les-Bains, also running. The left is united around Alain Richard with Robert Hue in third on the list. Paris Senator Alima Boumediene Thiery (EELV) is running a dissident list here, but nobody cares. no change here folks.

Guadeloupe (1-2) Lucette Michaux-Chevry is retiring, and the local UMP is in shambles here. Senator/president of the CG Jacques Gillot (dvg, GUSR-PS) will win reelection, and he seems to have LMC's support. The UMP is running Joël Beaugendre and Blaise Aldo, notably. The PS-PPDG (ex-commies) are running a ticket with Félix Desplan and Jacques Bangou (son of a former PPDG senator in the 80s-90s). Daniel Marsin, a RDSE senator affiliated with the right-wing of the GUSR (close to Bockel's party), is running but will probably lose. +2 for the left, despite a bit of a spat between Lurel (PS) and Gillot (GUSR).

Martinique (2-0) the UMP is a joke party here, basically, so forget them. The fight is on the left between incumbent Senator Claude Lise, president of the CG (RDM, ex-PPM) and probably Maurice Antiste (PS) who could defeat Lise. PS Senator Serge Larcher will be reelected probably.

La Réunion (1-2 +1) Two divided camps: the right between Michel Fontaine (UMP) where Dider Robert (UMP, president of the CR) is in third; and Senators    Jean-Paul Virapoullé and Anne-Marie Payet's rival UMP-centrist list. Then on the left there's Michel Vergoz (PS), a EELV list and finally a PCR-MoDem list with Paul Vergès, former president of the CR and Senator Gélita Hoarau (PCR). The likely outcome seems 2 PCR, 1 PS, 1 UMP, so +2 for the left.

Mayotte (0-2) I gave up on understanding this place long ago. MDM (centrist?) senator Adrien Giraud is running again, as is UMP senator Soibahadine Ibrahim Ramadani. But the UMP is divided with other candidates: the mayor of Mamoudzou and a former RPR boss. The PS is led by Ahamada Fahardine, mayor of Bandraboua. +2 for the left???

New Caledonia (0-1 +1) Logically, one seat should go to Pierre Frogier, boss of the R-UMP and MP since 1996. Nobody knows how the other seat will go: there is a second UMP candidate, a Calédonie ensemble (centrist loyalist) slate on the right and on the left there's Charles Pidjot, boss of the nationalist UC. But the FLNKS is again divided between the UC and Palika. nc or +1 for the "left" (Pidjot would be leftie if elected).

Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon (0-1) The incumbent is Denis Detcheverry (RDSE, ex-UMP). He faces, on the right, former MP (1986-2007) Gérard Grignon (UMP) and on the left the mayor of Saint-Pierre Karine Claireaux (PS). Karine Claireaux seems to be the favourite. +1 left.

French abroad (1-5) It seems as if the first two on the PS-EELV list will win and the first 3/4 on the UMP list will win too. Uncertainty on the last seat. +1 for the left probably.

Somebody do me a favour and count up the gains I'm predicting for the left.

[Hash]

Did it myself, my numbers are probably messed up:

'minimum' gains for the left: +18
'maximum' gains for the left: +30

+23 or so required for the left to get a majority.

[MaxQue]

I counted 18 to 28, so, you didn't messed up.

So, left needs a good day to win control of Senate.