NYC'13: Congrats to Mayor de Blasio

[traininthedistance]

Is there any polling on the Public Advocate race?  

It would be hilarious/a potential train wreck if Letitia James won; if only because the Public Advocate becomes Mayor in the event of the Mayor's death, God forbid.  

Not that I have seen.

I strongly support Daniel Squadron, by the way.

Most recent polling I can find for Likely Voters:

Letitia James - 16%
Catherine Guerriero - 12%
Daniel Squadron - 12%
Reshma Saujani - 3%
Sidique Wai - 2%
Other - 6%
Undecided - 49%

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJPoll0816.pdf

The only political mailer our household has received this season is for Reshma Saujani, actually.  She seems good but I'm super familiar with Squadron and basically agree with him on everything.

Letitia James is local, but she has campaign finance problems and is generally not that great.

Saujani is a pretty blatant wall street shill, don't be fooled by her mailers.  When she tried to primary Maloney, her campaign consisted almost entirely of promises to be a better friend to hedge fund managers and calling for greater deregulation of the banking industry.  Not surprisingly she lost badly, but (IIRC) raised quite a bit of money.  As powerless as Public Advocate may be, the mere optics of having someone like Saujani in the position is reason enough to vote against her, IMO at least.

Good to know.  Again, not that I was voting for her anyway.

[RogueBeaver]

Marist: DeBlasio 36 with Quinn and Thompson tied at 20. Leads Quinn by 22 in the runoff, Thompson by 12. Spitzer up 47-45 on Stringer

[Lief 🗽]

Looks like the interesting questions for Tuesday will be de Blasio over-under 40%, Quinn vs. Thompson, and Spitzer vs. Stringer.

[bballrox4717]

Cuomo had some harsh words for Bloomberg and lauded De Blasio and his family.

It'd be nice if Cuomo was backing the progressive candidate, even if they do have roots back in HUD together.

[Miles]

Poor Weiner:

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[bedstuy]

Cuomo had some harsh words for Bloomberg and lauded De Blasio and his family.

It'd be nice if Cuomo was backing the progressive candidate, even if they do have roots back in HUD together.

Why would he do that?  Cuomo probably wants Lhota to win.

[Miles]

We'll see if PPP confirms this:

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[PolitiJunkie]

Cuomo had some harsh words for Bloomberg and lauded De Blasio and his family.

It'd be nice if Cuomo was backing the progressive candidate, even if they do have roots back in HUD together.

Why would he do that?  Cuomo probably wants Lhota to win.

If Cuomo endorses/puts actual effort into electing De Blasio, I'd gain a lot of respect for him, and he's easily one of my least favorite prominent Democrats.

[Lief 🗽]

We'll see if PPP confirms this:

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Quinn only winning 13% would be hilarious.

[Keystone Phil]

So de Blasio should be forced into a runoff (good). Stringer better edge out Spitzer though.

[PolitiJunkie]

So de Blasio should be forced into a runoff (good). Stringer better edge out Spitzer though.

Why is that good? It's just extra taxpayer money for an election that he will win anyway and by a larger margin.

[DINGO Joe]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but all of the polls were completed before Bloomberg shared his thoughts.  If only 40% is needed to avoid a runoff, then my gut says it's very likely that de Blasio tops 40%. 

[Keystone Phil]

So de Blasio should be forced into a runoff (good). Stringer better edge out Spitzer though.

Why is that good? It's just extra taxpayer money for an election that he will win anyway and by a larger margin.

Oh, I'm not an NYC taxpayer but I am a political nerd so I'd like to see this go on awhile longer with zero fiscal consequence to me.

[Miles]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but all of the polls were completed before Bloomberg shared his thoughts.  If only 40% is needed to avoid a runoff, then my gut says it's very likely that de Blasio tops 40%. 

PPP was interviewing people until a few hours ago. But other than that, yeah.

[DINGO Joe]

We'll see if PPP confirms this:

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Kind of weird to call something from your own (PPP) twitter feed  a "rumor".

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

If Spitzer and Stringer are within the margin of error, I think Stringer wins. He's got the machine behind him.

[DINGO Joe]

PPP posted

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/09/de-blasio-on-verge-of-avoiding-runoff.html#more

Exactly like the "rumor"

If undecideds break proportionally de Blasio is at 42%

[Morning in Atlas]

With Bloomberg's comments I think they break for him enough to go just over 40%. Sorry, Phil.

De Blasio 41%, Thompson 22%, Quinn 19%, Weiner 8%, Liu 3%. 8% misc/Write-In.

[bedstuy]

I am very skeptical of the idea that De Blasio can hit 40%. 

I think it would require Quinn totally falling apart and minorities voting for De Blasio in surprising numbers.  But, at this point, nothing would really surprise me that much. 

[xavier110]

I am very skeptical of the idea that De Blasio can hit 40%. 

I think it would require Quinn totally falling apart and minorities voting for De Blasio in surprising numbers.  But, at this point, nothing would really surprise me that much. 

DeBlasio is winning every demo in most polls. I can't see him missing 40% with his momentum.

[Eraserhead]

Joe Lhota thinks we need "regime change'' in Syria, Catsimatidis disagrees.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/08/joe-lhota-syria-john-catsimatidis_n_3890501.html

Not exactly terribly relevant to this race but okay.

[Eraserhead]

The final Quinnipiac poll shows de Blasio slipping a bit but still holding a big lead. Thompson is surging. Stringer is also surging in the Comptroller's race.

MAYOR (D):

de Blasio 39%
Thompson 25%
Quinn 18%
Weiner 6%
Liu 4%
Albanese 1%

COMPTROLLER (D):

Stringer 50%
Spitzer 43%

I'll make my final predictions tonight.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-york-city/release-detail?ReleaseID=1951

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

41% De Blasio
24% Thompson
18% Quinn
17% Nobodies

51% Spitzer
49% Stringer

[PolitiJunkie]

What do you all think are the odds that Bill de Blasio becomes the next Mayor of New York City? Is it 90% yet?

[Lief 🗽]

No, the one constant with NYC polls is that they're bad. He's favored, but it's nowhere near that certain.