UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[TheSaint250]

Survation for Stop Brexit Alliance (SBA)/Kensington Constituency Poll (25-27 Apr)
Poll 1
Con - 46% (-6)
Lab - 29% (-2)
Lib - 17% (+11)
Grn - 7% (+2)
UKIP - 1% (-4)
3% swing from Con to Lab

Poll 2
Con - 32% (-20)
SBA - 28% (+28)
Lab - 23% (-8)
Lib - 9% (+3)
Grn - 5% (N/C)
UKIP - 2% (-3)
24% swing from Con to SBA

Is this a new political party?

[TheSaint250]

Survation for Stop Brexit Alliance (SBA)/Kensington Constituency Poll (25-27 Apr)
Poll 1
Con - 46% (-6)
Lab - 29% (-2)
Lib - 17% (+11)
Grn - 7% (+2)
UKIP - 1% (-4)
3% swing from Con to Lab

Poll 2
Con - 32% (-20)
SBA - 28% (+28)
Lab - 23% (-8)
Lib - 9% (+3)
Grn - 5% (N/C)
UKIP - 2% (-3)
24% swing from Con to SBA

Is this a new political party?

They must be; can't find anything out about them. I would imagine that the Lib Dems would stand aside for them if they're that close to the Conservatives. They may potentially stand in other seats that voted remain overwhelmingly that the Conservatives hold as well. Could make it interesting.

Yeah, I would think that too.  If it is a new party, it would most likely reel in some disaffected Labour and Lib Dems.

[TheSaint250]

How good are Paul Nuttall's chances of winning in the Boston constituency?

(I'm guessing next to none, but I want to know what you guys say)

[TheSaint250]

Wales poll, CON still ahead



CON: 41% (+1)
LAB: 35% (+5)
PC: 11% (-2)
LIB: 7% (-1)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
Others: 2% (-1)

That's pretty impressive

[TheSaint250]

This Labour manifesto seems like it could run Labour into the ground.

[TheSaint250]

Has Labour's recent polling bounce been halted? It seems like they've been shooting themselves in the foot too much.

[TheSaint250]

A quick question: how would one place Lib Dems on the ideological scale? I assume they are between Blair's Labour and Corbyn's Labour, but not entirely sure.

[TheSaint250]

I would have thought the Lib Dems would be the ideal party for British Jews. They are pro-Europe socially liberal but relatively pro free market as well. What's not to like?

The Lib Dems are largely non-interventionist, which tends to include tepid feelings about Israel and support for Israel and moreover attracts some of the kind of people who have less savory views on the subject (regardless of the fact that the party itself does not hold such views).

In the US the Republican try to be more pro-Israel than most Israelis are while the Democrats are much more "nuanced" on the Middle East and yet American Jews favour Democrats over Republicans by about a 4 to 1 margin. Why the difference?

Well, most importantly, U.S. Jews aren't UK Jews?

and most importantly us-democrats are not corbyn labourites.

where would one put corbyn on an americanized scale? bernie sanders, hillary clinton, or something in between?

[TheSaint250]

ok, thanks guys

[TheSaint250]

@joncstone
Obviously worth remembering that YouGov's final 2015 seat prediction did not exactly go as planned

In their defense, a lot of polls were off that year.

Not in their defense, wow that was really bad

[TheSaint250]

@joncstone
Obviously worth remembering that YouGov's final 2015 seat prediction did not exactly go as planned

In their defense, a lot of polls were off that year.

Not in their defense, wow that was really bad

well we will know the actually results by 9th of June

but the fact that the tories are losing seats is just wishful thinking, I wish it was true as a centre left voter ...

despite terrible tory campaign, in the doorsteps people still prefer May over Corbyn by a country mile


@edballs
It's a concerning trend that polls now often driving the news - and becoming political events in themselves. Same true in 2015.

^^ couldn't agree more

@Ed_Miliband
 The pollsters have been off my Christmas card list since 2015. #justsaying

This has been such a crazy time for pollsters, though. In 2016, they didn't predict President Trump, so everyone mistrusted them, but in the Netherlands and France, the polls were pretty much dead-on.

It's hurts my head thinking about whether they are gonna be right or not

[TheSaint250]

Let's say the Tories lose just barely (by 10-20 seats, for example).  If they agreed to form a coalition, who would they form it with? 

I would assume the Lib Dems learned from their 2015 slandering and won't side with the Tories, so would that leave Northern Irish parties like DUP and UUP?

[TheSaint250]

Let's say the Tories lose just barely (by 10-20 seats, for example).  If they agreed to form a coalition, who would they form it with? 

I would assume the Lib Dems learned from their 2015 slandering and won't side with the Tories, so would that leave Northern Irish parties like DUP and UUP?

Probably then just a Conservative - Unionist minority coalition or a Conservative minority govt with Unionist support in that case.

I don't see any other alternative unless maybe UKIP does better than expected, but that would come mostly at the Conservatives' expense anyway and it's extremely unlikely. If there is a hung parliament, there is definitely a chance that we could be having another election this year.

please no lol

[TheSaint250]

Opinium final polll:
CON 43 (=)
LAB 36 (-1)
LD 8 (+2)
UKIP 5 (=)
GRN 2(=)
SNP 5 (=)

4th-6th June
N=3,002

The Conservatives retain a 2-to-1 lead on trust on the economy


Despite a Conservative lead nationally, ethnic minorities are dividing clearly in favour of Labour


Jeremy Corbyn has continued to improve his personal ratings throughout the campaign


Labour is now the most trusted party to lead the Brexit negotiations amongst Remain voters

That first pic disproves the point some others were making that more people could vote Labour based on economic issues.