Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[KingSweden]

I'm still extremely skeptical Dems could win this. This is a game of margins

[KingSweden]

Estes wins 51-44.

This strikes me as a reasonable prediction

[KingSweden]

I don't doubt the +1 internal, but I still expect Estes to win by mid single digits

[KingSweden]

Should Ds reconsider messaging on guns? Both Kander & Thompson featured guns in their ads and seemed to really break thru in rural areas even if its a small difference.

Absolutely. This more than abortion is what has slammed them in rural areas

[KingSweden]

It's rare that you actually upgrade during a GOP primary. Curtis seems a marked improvement over Chaffetz

[KingSweden]

Congrats to the Ayatollah of Alabama.

Ugh. Moore is a disgrace who should be nowhere near elective office let alone the friggin' US Senate. He was too extreme for Bill Pryor. Ayatollah of Alabama indeed

[KingSweden]

This is your party, Republicans

Y'all keep saying that, yet these kind of candidates (Moore, Trump) keep winning.

Cuz y'all reward and empower maniacs. That's your problem, not ours.

[KingSweden]

Hiral Tipernini is the serious candidate, by the way. She’s an ER doctor who has strong fundraising,, compared to Westbrook, a social activist who barely qualified for the ballot.

Westbrook is one of those Justice Dems who only has an online following yeah?

[KingSweden]

Any over/under predictions on the Republican primary turnout?  On the one hand, Republican intensity is said to be way down, on the other hand there are 12 Republicans running for the nomination, even if a few of them are pretty fringy.  (It presumably still all adds up.)

Debbie Lisko is probably the frontrunner after Montenegro’s sexting scandal.

Maybe... depends on how many early votes he rolled up.

[KingSweden]

TX-27. I’ll take Cloud by atleast 15

Sure I’ll go with that

[KingSweden]

Cloud by 8 is not a bad result for Dems in all honesty

[KingSweden]

O’Connor up 2-1 in early voting https://mobile.twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1017200227298791425

That is not a correct conclusion from the data.  Nobody knows who those votes were cast for until they are counted.

Also this is just in Franklin County.

'
Also, this isn't even partisan registration (Ohio doesn't have that). It's just what party you voted for the last primary you voted in IIRC.

Which if anything, is probably skewed towards Republicans.

Our collective point here is that it’s a nice data point but not worth over-interpreting

[KingSweden]

Here's a vote of appreciation for Ebsy for providing these ballot total updates.

x KS