Florida in 2016

[bobloblaw]

Florida is gone for the GOP. Probably forever. Democratic voters in the Southeast are quite "inelastic", they would vote for ANY Democrat and even more so for Hillary. She will probably win white women there like Bill did in 96.

Well if FL is gone forever, do you then want to claim that the Dems will now win every election from now on. Is the Dem party now the ANC? One party democracy?

[bobloblaw]

If Hillary Clinton runs and wins the nomination, will Florida be in her bag (assuming Jeb Bush is not the Republican candidate)? Possible reasons are:
- Her appeal among elderly voters who rejected Obama in 2012.
- She will probably get more white voters than Obama.
- Retirees from New York.
- Her appeal among Hispanics and the disastrous trends for Republicans in Miami-Dade and
   Broward County.
- Demographic trends in general.


Is there ANY way Republicans can win in Florida in 2016 without Jeb Bush on the ticket (and even then it probably will be close)? Assuming they lose Florida, the only way I can see them "winning" is a tie:

Clinton - 269
Republican nominee - 269

I know that Hillary Clinton losing Pennsylvania may be a really far-fetched scenario, but for the sake of argument, let's just assume she does lose the state.

It really shows you just how difficult it will be for Republicans to win in 2016. In my opinion, it is going to be almost impossible, even if they run a good campaign.  

FL has a R+1 or R+2 PVI. There is no way the GOP loses FL but wins PA and CO.