The only seat the Republicans win in my scenario that Romney didn't carry in 2012 is Iowa, and I think that Braley's underwhelming campaign will ensure that we have a neck-and-neck race there come November. The other states on the list are Romney states, and President Obama's popularity ratings are not going to be helping Democratic incumbents in states like NC, LA AR, and AK. MT, SD, and WV are heavily favored for the GOP right now so I don't anticipate any qualms with those calls.
We're going to be looking at a lot of tossup races come November 4, and I think Obama's unpopularity will cause most of them to break towards the GOP.
I mean, Democrats picked up 6 seats in 2006 and the map wasn't nearly as favorable to them as it is for the GOP this year. Also, it seems like Republicans have learned their lesson and have refrained from nominating right-wing Tea Party nutjobs in competitive states.
What you're doing is looking at the map, and ignoring the environmental and external factors (getting bogged down in two wars, an insufficient response to Hurricane Katrina, slower-than-expected economic growth resulting from the Bush tax cuts) that made a year like 2006 such a good year for Democrats.
Even in 2004 and 2010--universally considered good years for the GOP--they only picked up four and six seats, respectively.
A change of six seats from one party to the other is a historically good night for either party. There is absolutely no reason to believe, at this point, that either party will have a historically good or bad night.
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