UK Opinion Polls Thread

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You have a serious simmering problem with your leader that will have to be adressed quite soon.

Probably, and I trust that the powers-that-be will fix any problems. Although, there's also the issue of the Deputy Prime Minister being nothing but toxic to the government. If this was a majority or minority Tory government, the Tories would be about 10% ahead. If Labour lose the by-election, Ed'll be gone before the end of the year.

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Ftr, the Tories didn't poll all that badly under IDS.

Thank you for standing up for a great, great man. He should be leader of the party and of the United Kingdom.

Sure.

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ICM/Guardian:
39 (nc)
35 (-2)
15 (+2)

Prefered Prime Minister
Dave Cameron - 38%
Ed Miliband - 25%
Nick Clegg - 12%

Who's best place to deal with the nation's problems?
41% Conservative-led government
36% Labour

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Gillard - 13%

LOL, please no

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Angus Reid (joke pollster, but whatever) shows "The Coalition" tied with Labour - the first time any company has done so.

43 (+2)
32 (-1)
11 (-1)

The Tory figure is why there isn't an election on the horizon, the Liberal % doesn't matter. This would also mean that Labour would win against a "National government" ticket, right? (If this result was to play out, of course.)

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Curious. When Gallup destroyed their credibility here, they stopped working here. Angus Reid seem to have adopted a different approach.

To be fair to them, they're picking up what every othe firm is: Liberal hemorrhaging has slowed, the Tories have started to fall - both to Labour's joy.

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Last night's ComRes:

43 (+1)
34 (nc)
10 (-2)

I'm still finding it hard to believe that Cleggmania was actually a thing.

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So just how screwed are the LibDems.... UKPollingReport's swingometer doesn't really give an accurate prediction when you throw in 'extreme' scenarios like LibDems falling to 8%.  I'd have to imagine that if an election were held today that LD's share of seats would fall through the floor.

18 seats would be a blessing for them, if there was an election today. Presumably, they'll get a drubbing at the assembly elections in May (I saw one prediction the other day pegging them at 1 seat in Wales) and they'll probably lose some big councils like Sheffield and see further loses on councils they lost big on in 2010 (i.e. Liverpool).

Depending on how much you pay attention to swingometers though, the lower the Conservatives go, the better it is for the Liberals in terms of seats. They'd go from oblivion to the edge of oblivion if the Conservatives polled say 32%, as opposed to 40% at the next election.

There's also the matter in seats like Eastleigh and Berwick-upon-Tweed of how badly Labour tactical voters coming back to the party will harm the Liberals and if this can be made up by Tories voting more tactically in the north than they normally do. There's also the possibility of many personal votes being harmed (see Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam and Simon Hughes in Bermondsey).

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fwiw (which is ridiculously little), feeding the last two polls here into a swingometer gives respectively

Labour 375, Con 232, LD 19, other 23

and

Labour 335, Con 282, LD 8, other 24

The 8 LD seats would be Orkney & Shetland, Ross Skye & Lochaber, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Sheffield Hallam, Ceredigion, Norfolk North, Twickenham, Bath, and Yeovil.

A Farron/Laws leadership election would be fun.

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On the other hand a coalition ticket would probably have every single Left-leaning Liberal backbencher calling for Clegg's head.

Their minds might be swayed if there's a good chance they won't be sitting on a bench at all.

They'd prefer a new, untarnished leader, (because, let's be honest, Clegg is more unpopular than Gordon Brown was in May) to try and detoxify themselves from Clegg, rather than a joint Coalition ticket.

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Big Society speech. Good for the Tories, or bad?

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UKIP gaining on the Liberals on Angus Reid (joke pollster)

41 (+1)
34 (+1)
10 (-1)
7 (+1)

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If David Cameron went to the palace tomorrow and asked for an April 10th election, it's safe to say he'd probably still be PM on April 11th. Hypothetically, in my opinion and all that...

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If David Cameron went to the palace tomorrow and asked for an April 10th election, it's safe to say he'd probably still be PM on April 11th. Hypothetically, in my opinion and all that...

I would agree, and not for any partisan reason. Labour's support is based on opposition to the government. The same was true until about this time last year for the Tories.

Exactly. Although the I doubt the Liberals would pick much support back up. Also, don't forgot, Labour (as a party) is beyond skint. The 2010 election was done on such a budget, i'm suprised that Lidl didn't endorse them.

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ComRes
40 (-2) 37 (+1) 11 (nc)

The Budget:
I believe that George Osborne, the Chancellor, is “on my side” in dealing with the country’s economic problems

Agree: 23%

Disagree: 50%

Unsurprisingly, 53% of Conservative voters agree – compared with 8% of Labour and 28% of Lib Dem voters.

When Ed Miliband, the Labour leader, talks about the “squeezed middle” he is talking about people like me and my family

Agree: 48%

Disagree: 28%

On this question, there is less of a partisan divide: 68% of Labour voters agree, compared to 40% of Conservative and 42% of Lib Dem voters.

Cancelling the planned 1p increase in fuel duty in the Budget would not be enough to help motorists

Agree: 80%

Disagree: 10%

The cuts are unfair because they will be felt more by the poor than by wealthier households

Agree: 63% (Nov: 56%; Dec: 57%, Feb: 63%)

Disagree: 25% (Nov: 30%; Dec: 28%, Feb: 24%)

There is a significant party split: 90% of Labour supporters agree, compared with 27% of Conservative and 53% of Lib Dems.

Bankers are making a fair contribution to the cost of getting the public finances back on track

Agree: 9%

Disagree: 78%

Finally, we asked about the Duke of York:

David Cameron should have sacked Prince Andrew from his role as an international trade ambassador when his judgement over personal friendships was first called into question

Agree: 38%

Disagree: 33%

Don’t know: 29%

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March's Ipsos/Mori
41 (-2) 37 (+4) 10 (-3)

Approval ratings (approve/disapprove)
David Cameron - 43/51 (+4/-1)
Nick Clegg - 34/56 (nc/-1)
Ed Miliband - 37/42 (+3/-1)
"The Government" - 36/59 (+5/-1)
George Osbourne - 36/45 (-4/+22, changes since June 2010)

Economy:
"Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will
improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?"
23/23/51 (+4/nc/-5)

"Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy?"
31/28/6

"Who do you think would make the most capable Chancellor?"
Ed Balls - 36%
George Osbourne - 35%

"Do you think the government has on the whole made the right decisions or the wrong decisions about where spending cuts should be made?" (Changes since October 2010)
Yes 35 (-6)
No 55 (+17)

Libya:
"Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the government is
handling the crisis in Libya?"
42/42

Mori notes that Yugoslavia handling in 1999 was 49/28. Not sure how useful their point is though...

The preferred chancellor numbers have gotten me all excited for the opposition response to the budget! I wonder how Labour's gonna try and spin any fuel duty reduction as bad...

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YouGov
44 (+3) 36 (-2) 9 (-2)

ComRes (Phone)
41 (+2) 35 (nc) 13 (+1)

End of the budget bounce? Ed Milibandela/Suffrag'Ed bounce? Who knows?

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Interesting stuff from this week's Sunday Times/YouGov:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-st-results-22-240711.pdf

43 (-1) 35 (-1) 10 (+1)

David Cameron approval:
39 (-2)/55 (+2) (-16 net)

Ed Miliband approval:
35 (+3)/50 (-3) (-15 net)

Nick Clegg approval:
24 (nc)/66 (nc) (-42 net)

To those who subscribe to the mantra that approval is more important than voting intention.

At the start of the month, Ed (when he was just that idiot who repeated the "get around the table" soundbite) was a -34.

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What's up with this sky-rocketing LibDem vote?

They've gone from

8-8-9-8-8-9-9-8-8-9-8-9-8-9-8-9
in the polls to
10-10-11-11-10-10-11-10-11-10-11-11-10

What gives?

Nick Clegg has barely reared his head (bar a forgettable soundbite or two) since the referendum. That'll be why. No doubt the questions about the Liberal leadership will come back once we hit conference season.

Their popularity's lack of movement over the past few months is just a reflection of how totally irrelevent they are.

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My theory is that the Tories look dirty, and saying you back the LibDems is a way of saying "I back Cameron, but he's dirty"

Saying you back the LDs is like saying you no ideals of your own anyway. How anyone who voted for their last manifesto can still back them is beyond me...

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People read manifestos?

Alright, anyone who voted for this, this or even this.

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People read manifestos?

Alright, anyone who voted for this, this or even this.

Ah, well, yes. But then those still pledged to voting LibDem generally didn't do so for those reasons. The people that did are the ones who've gone.

It seems that about a third of their core vote is opposed to the coalition government, I have no idea what kind of current LibDem voter would be against the Tories, Cameron, tuition fees yet still support the party.

Do you have any ideas?

I've met one or two who oppose Tories and tuition fees. They seem very self-hating in their politics. They're the type of people who stone-cold honestly believe that the Liberal Democrats are still liberal in the small-L sense of the word.

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Dave still leads on prefered PM:

David Cameron 35 (+1 on July 19-20)
Ed Miliband 25 (nc)
Nick Clegg 6 (nc)

Headlines from this YouGov are 43-35-10 to Labour.

Just 5% are decided on their prefered PM, compared to 29% of Labour supporters. Ed's having a hard time turning those former LibDem voters from "don't knows" to "EM4PM"s.

39% of voters want a government involving the Tories (majority or otherwise), 43% want a government involving Labour (majority or otherwise).

38% of voters think the Tories will atleast the the largest party at the next election, 42% think it'll be Labour.

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This week's Sunday Times/YouGov, changes since last week:

44% (nc) Labour
35% (nc) Conservative
9% (-1) Liberal Democrats

Doing well/badly:

David Cameron - 40/54 (-1/+2) -14 net
Ed Miliband - 32/54 (-2/+3) -22 net
Nick Clegg - 20/70 (-4/+4) -50 net

Bad economic news is what's hurting Nick and Dave, presumably, although I can't think of why Clegg's suddenly dropped 4 points this week, maybe a return to his norm after hackgate. A post-hackgate slump appears to be Miliband's problem as he disappears from TV during the recess and the shine of the scandal wears off. Down from his "highs" of -15, he's far from his lows of -34 after his poor handling of the strikes at the end of June and his infamous "get back around the negotiating table" interview.

In terms of the headlines, Labour appear to be moving further away from 6-point leads, more into the range of 8-9 point leads. The next major changes probably won't be until conference season (or if the world economy starts to lurch even further over the cliff before then).

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Take these with a grit bin of salt, but Survation (a questionable company to begin with) have taken some constituency polls of the areas affected by the Bombardier row.

Derbyshire South (Heather Wheeler)
45.9% (+14.5%)
31.9% (-13.6%)

Derby North (Chris Williamson)
51.1% (+18.1%)
23.0% (-7.7%)

"The Liberal Democrats would suffer heavy losses in both seats."

No full details out yet.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/aug/22/bombardier-conservatives-south-derbyshire