Era of the New Majority

[KingSweden]

As for the Senate, the leadership teams (including DSCC and NRSC chairs) return completely intact, as there are no retirements or challenges. Even though Dean Heller lost control of the Senate, he is allowed to stick around for an extra term to redeem himself (and thanks to his tight relationship with John Thune).

[KingSweden]

The Second Cabinet of Hillary Rodham Clinton, beginning January of 2021:

(Holdovers from prior Cabinet marked with a *)

President: Hillary R. Clinton
Vice President: Martin T. Heinrich
White House Chief of Staff: Huma Abedin
White House Solicitor General: Neal Katyal

Secretary of State: Russ Feingold*
Secretary of Defense: Michelle Flournoy
Attorney General: Deval Patrick
Secretary of the Treasury: Bruce Reed (former WH chief of staff)
Secretary of Agriculture: Brad Henry
Secretary of Transportation: Joe Lhota*
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Andrew Cuomo (second time filling this position)
Secretary of Commerce: Terry McAuliffe (former WH chief of staff and Governor of Virginia)
Secretary of Natural Resources: Heather Wilson*
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Ralph Northam (moved to this slot from the VA after his success there)
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Eric Greitens (a Republican appointee who failed in his run for Missouri Governor in 2020).
Secretary of Education: Dennis Walcott*
Secretary of Labor: Erica Groshen (former head of the BLS)
Secretary of Homeland Security: Susan Rice*

[KingSweden]

2020-21 College Football Playoff:

2020 Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech defeats SMU
2020 Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State defeats Wisconsin
2020 Cotton Bowl: Tennessee defeats Oklahoma State
2020 Peach Bowl: Ole Miss defeats Ohio State

2021 Rose Bowl: Texas defeats Oregon
2021 Sugar Bowl: Florida defeats Penn State
2021 CFP Championship Game (Miami): Florida defeats Texas. Florida is the 2020 National Champion!

[KingSweden]

January 2021: The second inaugural for Clinton is a muted affair, severely toned down from recent inaugurations due to her continued recovery from her December stroke. Vice President Heinrich defies custom by speaking for longer than her, and when Clinton speaks it is slowly, meekly and with words slurred. The media, which has not seen sustained public appearances from her in weeks, begins to wonder if the stroke was more serious than the White House let on. Heinrich continues to serve as Acting President, and leaks from the administration indicate that Senior Advisor Chelsea Clinton and former President Bill Clinton are clashing with Heinrich's staff as Hillary continues her recovery. Massive snowstorms blanket the Northeast.

January 2021 (continued): Senior-level negotiations continue in Spain between PM Albert Rivera and Catalonian leader Junquerias. At a massive rally in Barcelona, the Catalan governor promises a decision on "In or Out" within the next two months. Discussions in Scotland by the SNP start rotating around a possible second independence referendum. The Russian economy enters its fourth straight year of recession, with an increasingly sick Vladimir Putin not appearing in public very often as its military adventures overseas start to decline.

And now, for Sports: The Indianapolis Colts cap off a 15-1 regular season by defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers in Indy to advance to Super Bowl LV in Los Angeles. The Minnesota Vikings, meanwhile, beat top-seeded NFC team Tampa Bay on the road to advance for the NFC to their first Super Bowl appearance since the 1970s.

[Türkisblau]

Really liking this new Heinrich v. Clinton story line developing. Can't wait for more.

[KingSweden]

The Successors: Politico Assess the Democratic 2024 Field (Part I)

For the first time since 2008, the Democratic Party is likely to see a truly competitive nomination fight after three straight elections that were either incumbents coasting to retain the party's top honor or a generational frontrunner who steamrolled several inferior candidates. There will be no coronation this time, and it will be a brawl. A primer on the Democrats expected to attempt to succeed President Clinton, ranked by likelihood to run:

Vice President Martin Heinrich

The putative frontrunner thanks to his position at Clinton's right hand, his record of public and private loyalty to the President and his relative youth (he is not yet 50) place Heinrich in position to start the primary with a head start. He has deep connections to the environmental lobby, the netroots left and deep-pocketed Clinton donors, putting him in pole position money-wise. Some knocks on him though are a sometimes singular focus on environmental issues, and his stance on many issues important to Democrats are orthodox and so he doesn't stand out from a varied field. His performance now that President Clinton is recovering from what appears to have been a very serious stroke will be an indicator of whether he's up to the top job or not.

New York Mayor Bill de Blasio

Term-limited after this year, a longtime darling of the more activist left is widely expected to take the plunge regardless of what happens with Clinton or Heinrich. De Blasio is one of the most "New Left" office holders in the country, being elected twice on populist platforms by a diverse, young electorate. He has deep connections to the Clintons, who would probably not try to convince someone like De Blasio to get out of the race for the sake of Heinrich. The issue for De Blasio is that though his style might do well in New York City, he has no experience going into places like Iowa and South Carolina and he would be a severe underdog in the general election to any competent Republican. He also has few major achievements outside of a major tax restructuring in New York, has sparred with both Governors he has served alongside, has not entirely mended his relationship with the NYPD and his second term has been plagued by a slowing NYC economy and several high-level scandals. Still, with nothing to do after January of 2022, he has nothing to lose by running and forcing issues important to the activist left into the primary.

New Jersey Senator Cory Booker

Across the Hudson from De Blasio is Newark, the city of which Cory Booker was once a Mayor and rising political star. Then he came to the Senate, kept his head down for several years, and earned a reputation as a legislator and deal-maker, particularly for his work on sentencing reform with Rand Paul and drug reform with Kamala Harris and, once again, Rand Paul. For his efforts, Booker is widely admired in the black community and amongst the decriminilization activists who have become more and more prominent in the Democratic Party recently. Coupled along with his natural charisma and obvious ambition, and Booker should be Heinrich's biggest threat. He is not, however, because he is also notoriously close to major Wall Street firms, has been critical of the grassroots and though he laid the foundations in his mayoralty for the current Renaissance in not only Newark but much of North Jersey, most of the concrete achievements there are due to NGOs, non-profits and his successor as Mayor, Ras Baraka. Booker will be a player, especially with his ability to raise funds quickly and likely being the only African-American in the race. He will be severely hamstrung amongst skeptical liberals in the Democratic primary by his economic views, however, and that makes him unlikely to knock out Heinrich.

California Senator Eric Garcetti

The Democratic pipeline's third current or former Mayor, Garcetti is a former Mayor of Los Angeles who was appointed to Kamala Harris' seat after her appointment to the Supreme Court. Garcetti is viewed as likelier to run than contemporaries such as Gavin Newsom, who is said to want to face a much more open field than one that includes Heinrich, and would likely enter as a severe underdog. Despite winning statewide in CA (and having a chance to do so again in two years), Garcetti has few accomplishments to call his own and would likely only enter the race as the preferred dog of Hollywood and Silicon Valley donors longing to see a Californian atop the ticket rather than another Northeast insider. Garcetti is refreshingly blunt and was a well-regarded Mayor, but whether he has the cachet with primary voters to get anywhere with his low name recognition and without a clear niche in the field is unknown.

[KingSweden]

The Successors: Part II

New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand

Another New York-area politico, Gillibrand would have been a frontrunner in 2016 had her predecessor Hillary Clinton not run. Gillibrand is well-regarded amongst liberals for her fundraising skills, her effortless ability to stitch together a progressive agenda yet appeal to upstate moderates and conservative-leaning independents. She is by far New York's most popular officeholder, far outpacing De Blasio, Governor Bharara and her colleague, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Her work on overhauling how the military handles sexual assault has made her a hero to many feminist groups. However, progressives will likely pause at her work over twenty years ago defending Big Tobacco and her fairly conservative views on gun rights. Her niche in the party - a consistent liberal with a middle-of-road path on guns and a very progressive profile on a particular topic (in her case sexual assault) - is already filled by Martin Heinrich, who holds the same profile for environmental matters. She starts as a 50-50 to run, but is certainly at the top of the Veepstakes list for somebody like Heinrich.

Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy

A staunch liberal under the age of 50, Murphy is another Northeastern progressive in a primary sure to be full of them. Without much of a national profile, Murphy would start as a determined underdog for support in what promises to be a crowded field of candidates from the progressive wing of the party. 2024 is also a year in which he faces reelection in Connecticut, which while not a legal problem (Lieberman ran in this seat in 2000) could complicate a national bid. While his stance on the issues would excite many activists, his profile as a small-state Senator in a region that will already be well-represented in the primary make him a dark horse and longshot. Many close to Murphy believe that he intends instead to rise through the ranks in the Senate and one day replace Schumer as leader of a more progressive caucus.

California Governor Gavin Newsom

An unlikely choice, Newsom would likely enjoy the centrist wing of the party to himself, considering the concerns both liberals and moderates have about Senator Booker. Newsom is viewed as highly unlikely to run as mentioned earlier, partially since the jockeying to replace Clinton will begin in earnest this year before he has even served out his first term. Though political experience is becoming less and less important in Presidential politics (see Barack Obama and Ted Cruz each winning the nomination of their respective parties four years into their freshman Senate terms), Californians close to Newsom believe he has no intention of running until he is done serving as Governor of California. Still, if Heinrich or Garcetti stumble and it looks like De Blasio might be in position to take the nomination, many believe the more pragmatic leaders of the Democratic Party - including the Clintons, whose relationship with New York's Mayor have soured in recent years - would convince Newsom to jump into the race.

Oregon Governor Kate Brown

Brown leaves office in Salem in 2022 and would bring to the table eight years of executive experience in one of America's fastest-growing states, a strong record of leadership on progressive issues and the uniqueness of potentially being the first LGBT nominee (she is openly bisexual). Brown has zero name recognition outside of Oregon, however, and her niche as a "Portland liberal" might be an even worse reputation to carry in Iowa and Ohio than New York mayor.

Secretary of State Russ Feingold

An off-the-wall choice. A longtime public servant and progressive hero, Feingold has been applauded for his tenure as SOS since stepping in for an ailing Joe Biden in 2019 only a few months after being inaugurated as Wisconsin's Governor. Feingold would be 71 on election day and would turn 72 a month after inauguration, which would make him the oldest President at the time of his first inaugural. There is little chance Feingold runs, but he would be the savviest candidate on foreign policy matters besides Heinrich, would add a crucial Midwestern voice to the primary and would probably box out several weaker progressive candidates.

Virginia Governor Mark Herring

As the popular Governor of a crucial but Democratic-leaning swing state, Mark Herring is a potential contender for the nomination and will likely get a look from every candidate as a potential VP. He has no major policy initiatives to call his own that make him stand out uniquely in the field, but Virginia has continued to grow at a strong clip under his watch and he has gotten on well with legislators of both parties. Few expect him to run for President, but he is in far better position than mere dark horse, and is one of the rare Democratic Governors who was elected prior to 2018 and thus will have a full and complete term in office behind him when the race ratchets up, unlike many competitors he will face.

The Gubernatorial Class of 2018

Democrats have a decent bench of Governors, particularly in Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois and Minnesota and in other places too. All four were elected in 2018 and will have to face voters in 2022 - a six-year itch election for Democrats - before they can even consider looking at 2024. It is much too early to handicap if any of them are potential national figures.

[Duke of York]

Salem is the Capital of Oregon not Eugene.

[KingSweden]

Salem is the Capital of Oregon not Eugene.

^^^ Why I should not update when I'm tired and have had a long day at work. Thank you.

[Enderman]

Salem is the Capital of Oregon not Eugene.

^^^ Why I should not update when I'm tired and have had a long day at work. Thank you.

So thickens the plot of the Washington-Oregon Rivalry

[Brewer]

Come on Heinrich!

[KingSweden]

2021/22 Gubernatorial Elections - A Preview

In 2021 and then 2022, the majority of US Governorships will be up for election. This is a primer on the elections, ranked from most to least competitive.

Pennsylvania

This will be the marquee race of the cycle as Republicans try to take back an open seat from a term-limited incumbent with moderate, but not super-impressive, approval ratings. Tom Wolf is more popular now than Ed Rendell was in early 2009, but Republicans are well-poised to potentially take this seat as the popular and moderate Congressman Charlie Dent has all but signaled his intention to leave Congress after 18 years to seek this office. Dent starts as a putative favorite, especially with a "six-year itch" election approaching for Democrats, but Democrats are bullish on US Rep. Luke Ravenstahl or State Attorney General Seth Williams as their frontrunners. Neither is as strong on paper as Dent, but in a D-leaning state like PA either could win and win big. Dent starts with the advantage, but look for this to be the cycle's most competitive - and expensive - gubernatorial matchup. Lean R.

Georgia

Jason Carter starts this cycle as America's most vulnerable incumbent Governor. The Peach State has trended Democratic in recent years, but not quickly or decisively enough to protect a man elected by the narrowest of margins against a seriously flawed opponent in 2018. Carter has governed from the center, frustrating his increasingly liberal base from the Atlanta area, while the D next to his name makes him Target No. 1 for the still-dominant Republican party, which controls the legislature. Georgia's runoff rule if neither candidate reaches 50% will likely hamstring Carter, particularly if, as expected, Tom Graves and Brian Kemp run in 2018 to take him on. It would take a second miracle for Carter to survive. Lean R.

Florida

Gwen Graham's moderate profile and family history in this state helped her win the Governorship of the third largest state in the union. In 2022, Republicans have every intention of winning the large, valuable state back. The bench has several potential serious candidates, the likeliest of which is Jeff Atwater, who has already raised millions for a potential bout with Graham. Graham has decent approval ratings, however, and Florida's economy is rocking. If she can keep her losses with moderates and independents to a minimum and crank up the turnout, she should narrowly carry the state - however, this is the biggest Pure Tossup of the race.

Colorado

If the year is a decent-to-neutral one for Democrats, Governor Walker Stapleton could find himself in trouble. While currently favored to win, this purplish-blue state could cast him out after one term depending on how Democrats do in the state. Stapleton has made his mark as a true moderate, and Democrats want this statehouse back desperately to prevent him from fulfilling any potential national ambitions. Stapleton starts out as a slight favorite, as it is unclear who exactly Democrats are planning on running. Lean R.

Nevada

This is bound to be a competitive race if, as expected, term-limited Governor Mark Hutchison chooses to run for the Senate seat widely expected to be vacated by one-term Senator Brian Sandoval. If Sandoval is atop the ballot, the Silver State's top Democrats probably aim for the state house. If Sandoval retires - ahead of an expected Presidential run - then many Democrats will likely aim for a slot in the Senate instead. For now, this is rated a Pure Tossup in this lightly Democratic state, but NV Dems have not shown an ability to win headline races in the last ten years.

Illinois

One of the most rock-solid Democratic states in the country has been beset by pension crises, debt defaults and a shrinking population for well over a decade. Current Governor Tom Dart upset the establishment pick in Lisa Madigan in '18 and then defeated incumbent Bruce Rauner, but with less than two years of his first term left looks somewhat lost. Illinois' unemployment remains the highest in the nation and continues to atrophy population. Dart has done his best to take on powerful interests in the state and has kept a clean governor's mansion - continuing anti-corruption efforts begun by Rauner - but risks facing US Rep. Bob Dold, a well-regarded moderate aiming for the Governors mansion. If Dart faces Dold, this race becomes a Pure Tossup. Any other Republican probably leaves this race at Tilt D.

Wisconsin

Wisconsinites elected a Governor Feingold, but his departure to take over as Secretary of State left them with a Governor Chris Larson instead. Larson has clashed with the GOP-dominated legislature, and Wisconsin remains one of the most sharply polarized states in the country. Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald and Speaker Robin Vos are both looking at this race and would likely clear the field if they ran. While Larson starts out as slightly favored, this has a chance of becoming very competitive very fast. Tossup/Tilt D.

[Maxwell]

Who are the frontrunners for the Nevada Gubernatorial race?

[KingSweden]

Who are the frontrunners for the Nevada Gubernatorial race?

Since the prospective fields were each pretty big, I decided to leave it vague for now. I imagine Ds are looking at Masto, Miller, Sisolak and maybe a state Senator here or there. Rs probably Heck, Laxalt, Roberson, maybe even Heller.

[KingSweden]

2021/22 Gubernatorial Elections - A Preview (Continued)

New Jersey

New Jersey remains a state that, despite its Democratic tilt at the Presidential level, has a history of electing moderate Republican Governors since the early 1980s. No Democrat has served two terms in his own right since Brendan Byrne in the 1970s, though Democrats were able to string together several acting and formal governors in the 2000s. Democrats are beginning to worry that they might have to add Steven Fulop to the list. Elected in 2017 as a progressive reformer who would break the hold of machine politics on New Jersey, he has instead earned a reputation as an uncharismatic wimp and his administration has been beset by a death-by-a-hundred-paper-cuts flurry of small but embarrassing scandals. Though not as combative as his currently-indicted predecessor, Fulop also lacks the charisma and bluntness that briefly made Christie one of America's most popular Governors. He has not seen the meteoric rise and then fall, either - he has simply been modestly unpopular his entire term, and with New Jersey's economy weak outside of booming Hudson and Bergen Counties, its credit rating in the muck and the state beset by teachers' strikes in its three biggest districts in 2020, he is very vulnerable. Were it not for the Republicans' likely candidate being Tom Kean Jr., he could credibly ask New Jersey for a chance to clean up the state - however, this is Tossup/Tilt D with the scion of New Jersey's preeminent Republican dynasty aiming for the job he has always wanted.

Michigan

Gretchen Whitmer was elected to replace Rick Snyder narrowly in 2018, and despite her progressive bonafides has governed smartly and pragmatically with a Republican majority in both legislative houses. It remains to be seen how she will change tack with Democrats retaking the House last fall, but so far it seems like they are staying the course and putting together a modest, fairly uncontroversial legislative package. Michigan, the most Democratic state in the Midwest outside of Illinois, remains a lucrative target for Republicans in a midterm year, but it is not clear who they have that could credibly challenge Whitmer statewide. Most of the House Republicans are in fairly safe seats - though the redistricting plan drawn up by a Democratic Governor and State HOR will likely make the map much more competitive - and it's not clear that former Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley, now head of the Autism Society of America, would give up his meaningful work as the chief autism advocate in the United States for what would be a difficult race. Until Republicans roll out a top-tier candidate, this is Lean D.

Arizona

Doug Ducey is term-limited, which will make for what promises to be a competitive election in Arizona, particularly since he has been given right-of-first-refusal to challenge Democratic Senator Kyrsten Sinema. Ducey's Governorship so far has been conservative but uncontroversial - elected as a Tea Party favorite, he has governed from the mainstream of the party and his popularity has recovered in the Grand Canyon State from early bumps in the road in his first term. Former Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton is likely to seek this office again, while Republicans look likely to either back Attorney General Mark Brnovich or Secretary of State Michele Reagan, both of whom are likely to run (and are on the moderate spectrum of the party, particularly the pro-choice Reagan), or conservative US Rep. Ben Quayle, who is currently leaning towards seeking reelection pending the way maps are drawn for 2022. Lean R with Brnovich or Reagan, Tilt R with Quayle.

Oregon

Oregon is a bright blue (Atlas red) state, a Democratic bastion at the Presidential level. However, an open seat is always a chance for mayhem, and with longtime Senator Ron Wyden seen as likely to retire in 2022 as well, there could be two prime open seats atop Oregon's ballot that fall. Kate Brown leaves office having signed a slew of progressive laws into effect, making Oregon a beacon for the grassroots left - but Oregon also has a strong, if fairly centrist, Republican Party that has only upside in the highly polarized state legislature and national conservative groups have sworn to make an example of Oregon's elected officials. The most likely Democratic nominee is Treasurer Ted Wheeler, who was tempted to challenge Brown in 2016. A more moderate figure, Wheeler would start the race as a clear favorite. There have been rumbles about a run by third-term US Rep. Chris Edwards, however, or former House Speaker and second-term Rep. Tina Kotek. Expect multiple entries by various Democrats into this race and the Senate election over the next year. Republicans will bide their time to see how the primary fields shake out - after being the only state where Republicans lost ground in 2014, Oregon GOP leaders are not bullish on this race but will search for a candidate that can strike in the right conditions. Lean D, pending further information.

Virginia

The bellwether of our modern times has elected Democratic Governors two consecutive terms, both in years that had Democrats in the White House, bucking the longstanding VA trend. Democrats are bullish that they can repeat the feat in 2021, as former Senator and Governor Mark Warner will run for an historic second term twenty years after his first run as his last job. Warner, who loved being Governor, starts as a prohibitive favorite in a state where he is still widely popular and is regarded as the father of the state's modern Democratic Party - no Democrat would run against him, and most serious Republicans, including Attorney General Mark Obenshain and former US Rep. Scott Rigell, will likely skip out on the race if he is atop the ticket. However, it is an off-year election after two straight terms of Democratic Governors in a state where Democrats are reliant on a "New Majority" electorate that can sometimes fail to show up - close calls for Terry McAuliffe, current Governor Mark Herring and even Warner in 2014 attest to that. While Warner starts as a strong favorite and his expected entrance places this race at Likely D, if he were not to run, the race would quickly shift to Tossup/Tilt R.

Iowa

Democrats took a well-deserved victory lap in Iowa in 2020, holding all three of their House seats and their state legislative majorities, and knocked off freshman Senator Joni Ernst. With Chuck Grassley expected to retire in 2022, national Democrats are sure to focus their energy on making that seat, which leans R as it is, a competitive race. As such, look for uncontroversial and fairly popular Governor Bill Northey to be the favorite to win a second term in Des Moines, as most top-flight Democrats will likely pursue the open Senate seat and protect their legislative majorities. Likely R.

Minnesota

It is always hard to tell with Minnesota, a state that regularly elected moderate Republicans for Governor but has, since 2010, grown even more Democratic than its reputation already indicates. The DFL is expected to renominate popular Governor Lori Swanson, a moderate by Minnesota standards, for a second term, and she is widely expected to win. Her most likely opponents are either former US Rep. Erik Paulsen, who would represent a legitimate challenge, or whichever of Torrey Westrom or Tom Emmer decide to retire, as their districts are expected to be drawn together in redistricting where Minnesota is favored to lose a seat. Likely D with Westrom or Emmer, Lean D with Paulsen.

Ohio

In America's quintessential bellwether state, races are always competitive. However, Ohio Democrats are a mess of a party and incumbent Republican Governor Jon Husted, who is said to have modest Presidential ambitions, will be defended by a robust network of outside groups and a strong, disciplined Ohio Republican operation that has dominated the state for three decades. Democrats are hoping Connie Pillich or Joe Schiavoni run, but both are likelier to run in 2026. Cincinnati Mayor PG Sittenfeld will likely run, though national and state Democrats are skeptical he can win. Likely R.

Maine

Maine is a Democratic state on paper, but as 2014 proved, it is more than willing to not only elect but reelect staunch conservatives like Paul LePage. It's independent streak make it a difficult state to predict, but Governor Chellie Pingree is viewed as a competent Governor and is favored for a second term. Republicans have not given any indication as to who the favorite, if there is one, to run in 2022 is - most serious contenders are likelier to look at 2024, when Angus King is likely to retire from the Senate. Likely D.

Texas

A blood-red state and the backbone of the national conservative coalition, Texas could see an expensive race this cycle for one reason and one reason only - Julian Castro finally making his statewide bid. The former San Antonio Mayor and HUD Secretary has announced his attention to seek the statehouse, and with Greg Abbott retiring, an open seat gives Democrats an inkling of an opportunity here. However, the Republican frontrunner is Land Commissioner George P. Bush, who as the grandson and nephew of the two most recent Republican Presidents is near-royalty in his party and particularly in Texas, where the Bushes are still highly regarded. If Bush is the nominee, this stays Likely-to-Safe R, and even if the unthinkable happened and Bush were to lose the primary, Castro still has an uphill battle in Texas. Regardless, a state that should go Republican, but will see an interesting and exciting race to the end.

[KingSweden]

2021/22 Gubernatorial Elections - A Preview (Continued)

Vermont

Phil Scott is the last Republican Governor in New England, and is likely to remain so. Nevertheless, in progressive Vermont, one can never be too sure. While the uncontroversial and well-liked Scott starts out as a favorite, there is a deep list of Vermont Democrats who could emerge from a primary to take him on either this year or in 2024. Likely R.

New Hampshire

It is exceedingly rare in New Hampshire for a Governor to lose after only one two-year term, and Ann McLane-Kuster has done nothing to indicate that she is vulnerable. Still, New Hampshire is known for sclerotic swings, and there are rumors of a planned Chris Sununu run next fall after over a decade on the Executive Council. If Sununu runs, Kuster could be in serious trouble. Until he takes the plunge, however, Kuster starts out as a prohibitive favorite over any other Republican candidate. Likely D.

New Mexico

New Mexico is a Democratic state, albeit a fairly moderate one. It has a favorite son currently serving as Vice President and its Republican Party is smarting after losing both a Senate seat and the Governor's mansion in 2018. However, Hector Balderas, the Governor, is a fierce liberal who is probably to the left of his state's moderate Hispanic population and its large population of retirees, and the state has struggled economically in recent years, including anemic population growth and high unemployment outside of Albuquerque. Balderas starts as a favorite here, especially with a thin Republican bench in the post-Martinez years, but the state's grim economic outlook could make this a tighter race than Balderas is expecting. Likely D.

Kansas

Kansas, a staple of the Republican coalition, should be a Safe R state, but it isn't completely. A strong moderate streak within its Republican Party despises Governor Kris Kobach, who has continued the interparty war begun by his predecessor Sam Brownback. Kobach, who is even more polarizing and controversial, has morbid approval ratings and the state has been hammered in recent years by budget cuts, high unemployment and an aging population. However, that same aging population is staunchly Republican, and popular Republican Senator Jerry Moran will be at the top of the ballot in 2022, which can only help what would otherwise be a difficult campaign for Kobach. Democrats are wary of showing their hand as to who they would run against Kobach, with a highly depleted bench, which only adds to their likely struggle to seriously challenge for this race, and most moderate Republicans are expected to come home in the end. Likely R, despite Kobach's approvals.

Nebraska

Pete Ricketts leaves Nebraska's Governor's mansion with abysmal approval ratings, particularly in booming Omaha. Despite this, Nebraska's Republican lean and the lack of a top-tier Democrat - State Senator Jeremy Sundquist will run for Mayor of Omaha this fall and would not be in office long enough to turn around and then run for Governor - makes this a tough go for Democrats. State Auditor Charlie Janssen, current Attorney General Doug Peterson and former Attorney General Jon Bruning are all potential candidates for this office on the GOP side, and as all are mainstream conservatives, they would be heavy favorites going into the general. Safe R.

New York

Not even in 2018, when Andrew Cuomo was limping towards a primary defeat and New York Republicans fielded Chris Gibson, their best post-Pataki Gubernatorial candidate, could the GOP take the State House in Albany. They most certainly won't be able to do it now, with Preet Bharara looming over the state as the most powerful Governor in the state's recent history and with his crusades against corruption and liberalizing the state's laws as part of that effort widely popular with not only moderates and many conservatives, but also his progressive base - some polls indicate he is the most popular Governor in the country. His savvy political skills and his inability to ever seek higher office (Bharara was born in India) have left him laser-focused on his job in New York and his dedication to that job make him likely to earn close to 70% of the vote in the fall, if current polls are to be believed. There are few, if any, Republicans willing to stick their neck out for this race against an incumbent of Bharara's strength. Safe D.

California

This could hypothetically be competitive, had Republicans not run the stellar Kevin Faulconer for Governor in 2018 and still come up widely short against Gavin Newsom. Though Newsom is well to the right of his progressive base on many economic issues, he remains popular with the social liberals who really control the CA Democratic party and thus is unlikely to face any pressure going into the top-two primary. Republicans, meanwhile, lack a candidate of Faulconer's quality, though they have discussed running the former San Diego Mayor again. Newsom is a fairly safe bet for reelection unless something massively unexpected happens in the next year and a half. Safe D.

South Dakota

Kristi Noem has proven an effective and savvy Governor in this small and conservative state, where she is a terrific fit for the rural electorate. She is as safe a bet for reelection as any Republican Governor in the Great Plains. Safe R.

Wyoming

Cynthia Lummis has governed efficiently and uncontroversially, without any of the scandals of the Mead years, in America's smallest state. Democrats are unlikely to field anyone competitive against her, not even former US Attorney Chris Crofts. Safe R.

Arkansas

In this once-Democratic state, Tim Griffin has governed as a mainstream conservative, attracting business to booming Northwest Arkansas and avoiding controversy on social issues. Facing a broadly popular and scandal-free Governor in a state where numerous public officials have run into ethical issues in recent decades, the battered Arkansas Democratic Party is unlikely to sacrifice anyone against the Deep South's most popular Governor. Safe R.

Tennessee

Bob Corker was already very popular in his home state before running for Governor, and in the years he has filled the Governor's mansion he has only become more so. With Nashville booming and the state adding three automobile factories in the next four years, Corker is a shoe-in against a beleaguered TN Dem party. Safe R.

Oklahoma

Though the OKC area is growing and diversifying, the state remains one of the staunchest Republican outposts in the country, and Mick Cornett holds positive approval ratings even with Democrats. There is no serious Democrat who could realistically challenge Cornett, especially now that Brad Henry is Secretary of Agriculture. Safe R.

Alaska

It may seem odd that an open-seat election in Alaska where a moderate Independent who defeated an incumbent Republican in 2014 would be this far down the list, but Republicans have reportedly recruited Lisa Murkowski to run for Governor. If that is the case, this race is as Safe R as it gets, provided she survives the primary. If she passes on a run and seeks reelection to the Senate, this race could go bounding up the list, though it would still be Lean or Likely R.

Hawaii

David Ige leaves office popular and well-respected by his Democratic base, and Lieutenant Governor Shan Tsutsui looks like the favorite entering the primary. The candidate-heavy Hawaii Democratic Party could honestly put anyone through in this race, since it is likely to be a wide field of ambitious Democrats looking to head to the Governor's mansion, but whoever emerges has a clear advantage. Safe D.

[KingSweden]

2022 Gubernatorial Elections - A Preview (The States KingSweden Forgot)

Massachusetts

Widely popular two-term Governor Charlie Baker will retire after two terms, it is widely believed, and that makes this race a tossup. Though the GOP should ostensibly be able to capitalize on the popular Baker administration, they have two problems - one, the upcoming 2024 Boston Olympics are behind schedule and over budget, a problem that will largely be blamed on Baker as the Games get closer and closer. Two, they lack a figure of Baker's stature, caliber and moderate tone who can realistically challenge for this race. There are a few statewide Democratic officials eying this seat, meanwhile, but the prohibitive frontrunner is US Rep. Seth Moulton, who is expected to announce any day now what his plans are. Many Democrats would likely defer to Moulton, especially with an open-seat race. Likely D without Baker, Lean R with.

Rhode Island

Gina Raimondo is term-limited, and many liberals are happy to see the budget-cutting, business-friendly moderate go. A wide variety of candidates are lining up to replace her, including US Rep. David Cicilline (who will be drawn out of his seat as Rhode Island will only have an At-Large seat after redistricting) and Providence Mayor Jorge Elorza. Ironically, Cicilline was once a Providence Mayor himself. Republicans, who incidentally are often more liberal than many Democrats in RI, are likely to coalesce around the decade-long odyssey for Ken Block, former Moderate Party founder, to seek the state's governorship. Both sides lack a truly top-tier candidate - the state leans heavily Democratic but has a history of electing moderate to liberal Republicans, and all three major candidates expected to enter the race have serious issues, most of all Cicilline, who is said to plan his campaign around an historic race to be the first gay man elected to a Governor's mansion (Jim McGreevey came out in his resignation speech). Pure Tossup, due to conditions on the ground.

Connecticut

In this small, strongly Democratic state, Governor William Tong has governed effectively and uncontroversially as a mainstream liberal. He is not a bold progressive like Dan Malloy, who passed a flurry of liberal-friendly laws into office yet received nearly no recognition, nor is he a centrist like the long tradition of CT Republicans. Simply put, Tong has little profile outside of his state but has sustained good favorability ratings at home since his election. Tong should be an easy reelect in 2022, especially with no primary challenges from the increasingly activist left in his home state on the horizon and CT Republicans lacking a star candidate who could take on this inoffensive incumbent. Likely D.

Alabama

Luther Strange has been a low-wattage governor in Alabama, where the state has a slowly growing population and economy but he has avoided controversy and governed as a mainstream conservative, passing budgets on time every year and focusing on improving education and tax relief. While there may be challengers from the right on the horizon - ex-Speaker Mike Hubbard despises Strange and might try to stage a political comeback - Democrats lack the firepower or candidates to take out someone uncontroversial and modestly popular like Strange. Safe R with Strange, Likely R if the controversial Hubbard seizes the nomination in the unlikely event he runs.

South Carolina

Mick Mulvaney was elected after a no-holds-barred primary with Alan Wilson in 2018 and many Republicans, particularly moderates and coastal conservatives, still fume at the Upstate firebrand's tactics and ugly campaign. Unfortunately, Mulvaney has consolidated endorsements early and nobody has the desire to take on the ultra-conservative Governor, who has battled with the considerably more centrist legislature (by SC standards, at least) on everything from land development to taxes to when to lower flags to half mast. Despite the controversy, Mulvaney is probably safe in a primary where he would go to a conservative-friendly runoff, and Democrats have no candidate conservative enough or uncontroversial enough to actually defeat him in the general. Safe R.

[KingSweden]

Ranking 2022 Senate Races from Most to Least Competitive

Of course, this list discounts for any special elections, but includes the most up-to-date information as of early February 2021.

1. Arizona (Democratic Incumbent) - Kyrsten Sinema is the nation's most vulnerable incumbent for no reason other than the fact that she was carried into the Senate on the coattails of a Democratic wave in 2016 and represents a state historically unfriendly to her party, more so than Missouri (#2 on this list). Sinema is seeking reelection in a rapidly diversifying state, but Arizona's senior-heavy population skews very conservative and Hispanics here are not as strongly Democratic as in other states. If Doug Ducey runs as expected, the race starts at Tilt R.

2. Missouri (Democratic Incumbent) - Jason Kander, the first Millennial Senator, is staring down the pike at a very difficult reelection campaign. He only narrowly beat Roy Blunt in 2016 (in a Democratic landslide, at that) and Missouri has become increasingly hostile to Democrats in recent years, even when factoring for Hillary Clinton's razor-thin win here last fall. Kander starts out in a better position than Sinema, even though both are conservative Democrats, as Missouri has a longer history of electing Democratic Senators and mostly voting for fairly orthodox, uncontroversial Republicans (see John Danforth, Kit Bond, Blunt). With Eric Greitens at the VA (and seen as more likely to try for Governor in 2024), Kander faces a fairly diverse field. Jason Smith is his most likely opponent, and depending on the national mood in a likely "six-year itch" election, Kander would start out with a modest disadvantage. If SOS Shane Schoeller or Treasurer Tom Dempsey run, this starts out at Tilt/Likely R, and Democrats start their night in a serious hole.

3. Pennsylvania (Democratic Incumbent) - A light blue state in which Republicans are expected to field their best Republican Gubernatorial nominee since Tom Ridge bodes ill for the polarizing Senator Joe Sestak. Hugely popular with the grassroots and a veteran, he is unpopular with party leaders for wandering off script and has an abrasive personality. Republicans have high hopes for moderate US Rep. Ryan Costello, who is expected to be drawn into a very competitive district and will seek to end Sestak's career permanently this time. This starts as a Pure Tossup, especially with a Gubernatorial election expected to benefit the GOP.

4. Iowa (Republican Retiring) - Chuck Grassley is retiring in 2022 after 42 years in the Senate, and Rep. Chet Culver is widely believed to have cleared the field to retake the seat for Democrats (his father was defeated by Grassley in 1980). In a six-year itch election like 2022 figures likely to be, Republicans start this race with a clear advantage, especially with both Grassley's grandson Pat and former Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds likely to run and popular Governor Bill Northey atop the ballot. However, you can never discount Democrats in Iowa, especially after their outstanding performances last fall. Likely R.

5. Nevada (Republican Incumbent/Retiring) - It is Washington's worst secret that Brian Sandoval intends to run for President in 2024, and it is a slightly worse secret that he has no intention to run for reelection in 2022 as a result. However, he has not announced his intentions yet. If he stays in, this would drop to near the bottom of the list - Sandoval is one of the most popular politicians in Nevada history and would be utterly Safe. However, if, as is likely, he retires, then this will be a competitive race. Democrats are likely to encourage Ross Miller to seek the Governorship, leaving a thinning bench to take on Mark Hutchison, the outgoing Governor who would all but clear the field on the GOP side. As is, with Hutchison popular and no clear Democratic frontrunner, this race Leans R, but Nevada is an odd beast.

6. North Carolina (Democratic Incumbent) - Janet Cowell would be further up this list but for her outstanding constituent services, North Carolina's increasingly friendly demographics and her moderate voting record. Republicans seem likely to throw House veteran Patrick McHenry into the mix, a solid conservative who is in leadership and knows the terrain in North Carolina very well. McHenry would be an imposing candidate, but North Carolina is an unpredictable state and fellow US Rep. Mark Walker is making noise about jumping into the race with a major round of redistricting coming down the pike. Cowell has a massive target on her back, but is a superior politician to Kay Hagan, who was defeated eight years ago under similar circumstances. This is a Pure Tossup.

7. New Hampshire (Democratic Incumbent) - This sclerotic state is as unpredictable as they come, and its politicians are no different. Nobody in New Hampshire knows if Maggie Hassan, who is popular, will seek another term. If she runs, she likely keeps most Republicans out and wins easily. If she retires - as there are signs she may do, with public statements about hating Washington, D.C. and her low fundraising figures - this seat is very competitive. Donna Soucy would have the right of first refusal on this seat in that case, and Republicans are starting to coalesce around moderate Nancy Stiles to take on whoever emerges as the Democrat here. Stiles is regarded very strongly in Republican circles and would be a formidable candidate, even after losing a narrow House race to Soucy last fall. Tossup/Tilt D without Hassan, Likely D with her.

8. Ohio (Democratic Incumbent) - A perennial (and classic) swing state, Ohio will be very competitive, particularly with a Governor's race going on too. However, Tim Ryan has a massive warchest and his populist profile fits the state well. Ryan starts with a massive target on his back, but should be favored unless the floor completely falls out from under Democrats a la 2014. Republicans are looking at former State Senator Kris Jordan as a potential statewide candidate here, but would prefer someone with more experience to take the plunge. Tilt D.

9. Colorado (Democratic Incumbent) - There is nothing to indicate that Mike Bennet is vulnerable, though he is in a swing state and will share a ballot with a popular Republican Governor. Republicans dream that Cory Gardner makes a comeback, though after his acrimonious loss to Jared Polis last fall, many would be surprised if he returned to politics so soon, and Bennet will not be caught napping by the talented Gardner. Republicans are instead searching for a candidate who can take the dive and appeal to the growing Denver region. While they are impressed with new US Rep. Rick Lopez, he has been in office for a month and is nowhere near ready to face the Bennet machine. Likely D, but it will be close.

10. Wisconsin (Democratic Incumbent) - Wisconsin is always a crapshoot, but Senator Ron Kind sits on a massive war chest and seems prepared to take all comers. Republicans want Scott Walker to run, but most doubt that the two-term Governor and two-time presidential nominee would enter a race like this, especially as he left office fairly unpopular. Instead, the expectation is that either US Rep. Mike Schraa runs, or whichever of Scott FitzGerald or Robin Vos passes on the Governor's race. Kind would be favored over any of them. Likely D.

11. Florida (Republican Incumbent) - Marco Rubio's shot at prime time on the 2020 ticket did not go well as Mike Pence's second-in-command, and his star no longer burns as bright as it once did - he is not expected to run for President in 2024 as of right now. He is, however, highly likely to run for reelection rather than challenge Governor Gwen Graham. In rapidly changing Florida, he retains good favorability numbers, and Democrats probably can't afford to go after him with all the competitive seats they have to defend. There is no chatter about any Reps taking on Rubio, and the FL Dem bench is thin from there on down. Likely R.

12. Illinois (Democratic Incumbent) - Illinois should be fairly safe for Democrat Cheri Bustos, but the downstate continues to trend R and Republicans have the knives out for Governor Tom Dart. Still, with a strong profile in the state and the advantage of incumbency, Bustos starts as a prohibitive favorite. Likely D.

13. Georgia (Republican Retiring) - The only reason this race gets on this list is that Georgia has a Democratic Governor, there was a close runoff last fall and the state continues to trend to the Democrats. The Democratic hope here is that whoever emerges to replace three-term Senator Johnny Isakson, who is retiring, is unelectable. This is unlikely, as the early favorite remains US Rep. Rob Woodall, and most of Georgia's hard-right Republicans from the previous decade are no longer in office. Woodall starts with a distinct advantage over expected Democratic nominee State Rep. Scott Holcomb. Likely R.

14. Washington (Democratic Incumbent) - Washington's Senate races are always a brawl, though like usual the Democrat, Patty Murray, starts with an advantage. She will have been office 30 years in 2022 and is Chuck Schumer's top lieutenant in the Senate. Washington Republicans often speak about defeating her, but they will be hard pressed to find anyone in the uphill task. Likely D.

15. Kentucky (Republican Retiring) - Rand Paul, a supporter of term-limits, will be leaving office after twelve years as a unique figure in the United States Senate and after two Presidential runs. Kentucky Republicans believe either Brett Guthrie or Dakota Meyer start with the advantage, as Paul acolyte was only recently elected to the Governor's mansion. Meyer has cultivated a strong reputation as a sharp young bipartisan deal-maker despite being the son-in-law of Sarah Palin, while Guthrie is a veteran House lawmaker. Both would have leg up in a state with a lot of conservative Democrats but that hasn't sent a Democratic Senator to Washington since the late 1990s. Likely R.

[KingSweden]

The rest of the Senate races:

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Safe R
Arkansas: Safe R
California: Safe D
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Indiana: Safe R
Kansas: Safe R
Louisiana: Safe R
Maryland: Safe D
New York: Safe D
North Dakota: Safe R
Oklahoma: Safe R
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe D

[hurricanehink]

Nice update. What's going on with marijuana legalization? (Not sure if that was covered)

[Maxwell]

What about potential 2024 Republicans?

Excellent update, btw.

[KingSweden]

Nice update. What's going on with marijuana legalization? (Not sure if that was covered)

For simplicity, I have decided not to get into ballot measures. I imagine we're looking at California, Nevada, New York, Vermont and Massachusetts having full legalization and several states (New Jersey, Rhode Island, Illinois) having decriminalized.

[KingSweden]

What about potential 2024 Republicans?

Excellent update, btw.

I was going to get into that a little more after the 2022 midterms were over and the nomination really starts to ramp up, like I did post-2018.

The Big Three, as it is in early 2021, are Brian Sandoval (establishment/moderate, Hispanic), Tom Cotton (Neo-con/hawks) and Mick Mulvaney pending reelection (grassroots conservatives/social conservatives). Second-tier candidates would also include Charlie Baker, Josh Romney, Mick Cornett and Walker Stapleton (pending reelection).

[KingSweden]

February 2021: President Clinton delivers her State of the Union address. Though her physical appearance remains frail, she speaks with greater confidence. It is one of the shorter SOTUs in recent memory - she only speaks for thirty-two minutes. At the end, she expresses gratitude, saying, "I want to thank all Americans - Democrats and Republicans alike - for their thoughts, their prayers and the hundreds of thousands of good wishes I received over the last two months. I am truly, deeply humbled." In the media, however, many pundits, conservative and liberal alike, express skepticism about Clinton staying on. Bill O'Reilly remarks on one of his final broadcasts before his May 2021 retirement: "If it is going to be a long recovery, then she should resign, and not just for the country, but for her own sake. Like she said in her speech, she has been overwhelmed by well-wishers from around the country, and I salute her in her efforts to stay on. But like so many millions of Americans know, the road to recovery after a severe stroke is long and hard. It is certainly longer and harder if you are trying to recover with the weight of the free world on your shoulders."

February 2021 (continued): The situation in Catalonia continues to deteriorate as Junquerias waffles on a UDI while Rivera draws a line in the sand, stating, "There will be no independence for Catalonia. Spain survived a civil war and a dictatorship. There is no reason for a democratic Spain to break apart." The situation worsens during the UEFA Champions League Round of 16, as referees are accused of fixing the game against FC Barcelona, with several "phantom calls" against Barca players and no calls against Roma players on two offside goals, resulting in a 4-1 home loss for the Blaugranes. The riot that follows the game results in seventeen deaths, a hundred billion in damages (euro) and militant nationalists seizing control of a police precinct. After these events, Junquerias gives a fiery speech in which he promises a second referendum on April 10th, with a yes triggering an automatic UDI. Rivera pledges on national television, despite King Felipe VI urging calm, that "Spain will not recognize any referendum, and will recognize no declaration of independence by any region." Basque separatists watch closely, as does the SNP. Both Britain's Osborne and France's Fillon state emphatically that they will help Spain prevent secession and will block any attempt by Catalonia to be recognized by the EU. Secretary of State Russ Feingold urges calm in a weakly-worded statement.

And now, for Sports: The Indianapolis Colts defeat the Minnesota Vikings 24-17 in Super Bowl LV in Los Angeles, with a potential tying fourth-down touchdown pass from Teddy Bridgewater to Speedy Noil batted away with 0:07 remaining by Colts safety Clayton Geathers. With three touchdown passes, no interceptions and 317 passing yards, Andrew Luck wins his second Super Bowl MVP award to go with his regular-season MVP award and Offensive Player of the Year award. The Colts are the third NFL team to win a Super Bowl with an 18-1 record.

Besides the "Betrayal in Barcelona," the UEFA Champions League features some intrigue as star Liverpool striker José Morales comes out as gay the week before Liverpool travels to Zenit St. Petersburg for their Round of 16 match. He is the most high-profile athlete to ever come out of the closet. In his game in notoriously gay-unfriendly Russia (playing there was as much of an impetus for him to come out, in his words "to show I'm not afraid" as was his turning 20 in January), Morales scores three goals in the first half as Liverpool blasts Zenit 5-0 on the road.

[KingSweden]

March 2021: Clinton's second term agenda gets bogged down as the House does not pass a transportation funding plan as hoped and a shutdown of six unfunded departments is narrowly avoided by a continuing resolution. Economic data for Q4 of 2020 is revised downward, showing less than 1% growth as was originally reported. An unseasonably warm winter after the late January snowstorms gives a good jobs report for February. At the end of the month, two F5 tornadoes wreak havoc in the Oklahoma City area, killing 217 people. Vice President Heinrich is on the scene the next day, meeting survivors and helping coordinate with FEMA Director Craig Fugate, the longest-serving administrator in the agency's history. Oklahoma Governor Mick Cornett later praises Heinrich's response. It is not lost on anyone that there is radio silence outside of an official statement from Clinton.

March 2021 (continued): Riots and demonstrations continue in Barcelona. In Russia, it has now been over a month since anyone has seen Vladimir Putin publicly and Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev is viewed as being boxed out by senior Kremlin officials in anticipation of an upcoming power vacuum. The "Year of the Coup" begins in Iraq, where Shiite army commanders seize power in Baghdad as the countryside crumbles and falls to Sunni paramilitaries who have risen in the vacuum after ISIS' collapse as likely to fight each other as the central state. The CIA is certain that the Shiite junta is tied to Iran. In Australia, Bill Shorten's Labor passes marriage equality after several months of debate on the bill. Several Coalition PMs break party ranks to back it along with unanimous Labor support.