Which Gore States Would Kerry Lose?

[Gustaf]

Kerry COULD lose a lot of states, I don't know which he WOULD lose, it's way too early to tell, I think. But obviously, those 5 states that were close in 2000, and has been mentioned above, would be included. PA is vulnerable as well.

[Gustaf]

Lets see:

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, washington, New MExico, Oregon.

Washington? Nader ran strongly in Washington, Bush only got 44% there in 2000, worse than in Michigan. If it's a competitive election, Washington should go Dem.

[Gustaf]

Lets see:

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, washington, New MExico, Oregon.

Washington? Nader ran strongly in Washington, Bush only got 44% there in 2000, worse than in Michigan. If it's a competitive election, Washington should go Dem.

I disagree.  Kery would win Seattle but that's it.

I don't really know where to post this, it's mostly for MiamiU's benefit...apparently Dean will  be giving a top 10 list on David Letterman, and one of the items is this:

"Marry Rachel on the final episode of Friends."

Would that give him your vote, MiamiU?

[Gustaf]

Ah, well, I am kind of cut off from the world of entertainment in America...

gustaf-it was on letterman last night and good show.  Dean did alright and a little lightheartedness is good for him now.

Lets see:

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, washington, New MExico, Oregon.

Washington? Nader ran strongly in Washington, Bush only got 44% there in 2000, worse than in Michigan. If it's a competitive election, Washington should go Dem.

I disagree.  Kery would win Seattle but that's it.

I don't really know where to post this, it's mostly for MiamiU's benefit...apparently Dean will  be giving a top 10 list on David Letterman, and one of the items is this:

"Marry Rachel on the final episode of Friends."

Would that give him your vote, MiamiU?

[Gustaf]

Then you know how I feel...

I know it was confusing for me too when I was deployed to germany last year, everything seemed to be a day behind.

Ah, well, I am kind of cut off from the world of entertainment in America...

gustaf-it was on letterman last night and good show.  Dean did alright and a little lightheartedness is good for him now.

Lets see:

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, washington, New MExico, Oregon.

Washington? Nader ran strongly in Washington, Bush only got 44% there in 2000, worse than in Michigan. If it's a competitive election, Washington should go Dem.

I disagree.  Kery would win Seattle but that's it.

I don't really know where to post this, it's mostly for MiamiU's benefit...apparently Dean will  be giving a top 10 list on David Letterman, and one of the items is this:

"Marry Rachel on the final episode of Friends."

Would that give him your vote, MiamiU?

[Gustaf]

Yes I feel your pain   ( sorry couldn't resist)

Then you know how I feel...

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It's okay...just add on to the pain...

[Gustaf]

It seems to me that no matter who the Dem candidate is (Kerry/Dean/Clark/Edwards), this will be a tight election.

All the polls, up until now, show the country split down the middle.

The attacks I've heard on Kerry are that he's an ultraliberal.  But that isn't really true.  His economic plan is more centrist than Dean and Clark.  On social policy he is progressive, but not to the Dean level.  On firearms he's a centrist (really he only wants to close the loophole which allows people to sell guns from their personal collection w/o doing a background check).

You're right, Gore campaigned as a centrist.  Kerry will do the same but with his own flavor.

Bush, on the other hand, also ran as a centrist.  But his record over the last 3 years has been that of an extremist.  That is going to cost him many votes.

You're being way too optimistic there Wakie. 9/11 changed a lot of things. Bush has led the nation successfully throughout political and economical crises, and that will persuade a lot of voters to lean towards him.

[Gustaf]

Gustaf, you're in Sweden, right?

I wouldn't say that Bush has successfully led this country through anything.  The apparent rebound in the economy is being fueled by consumer spending.  Job and wage growth was at the lowest it has been since the Jimmy Carter era.  A disproportionate number of the jobs which have been created are temporary jobs.

I know people who voted Gore in 2000 and people who voted Bush.  None of the Gore voters I know are switching.  Some of the Bush voters are.

It all boils down to the Reagan yardstick.  Are you better off today than you were 4 years ago?  Right now the answer for most Americans is No.

Yes, I am. I think the Swedish media gives a much more negative picture of Bush than the American media, so if you mean to imply that I am cut off  from American reality by being in Sweden, I don't think it holds in this case. The old "but-everyone-hates-Reagan/Thatcher/Bush, etc-mantra" is dangerous. I agree that a lot of bad things have happened. But Bush is percieved as a strong leader, and I think most Americans feel that he's been put in a ard position and has done the right things to deal with that. That's what I meant by leading the country successfilly.

[Gustaf]

Pennsylvania actually might favor the Democrats if Kerry wins. Remember his wife was the wife of beloved senator heinz and that family has some sway in crucial parts of the state.

Kerry might also be attractive to southeasterners which might be turned off by the hotheaded Dean.

Southeaterns means, PA southeaterners, right?

[Gustaf]

Pennsylvania actually might favor the Democrats if Kerry wins. Remember his wife was the wife of beloved senator heinz and that family has some sway in crucial parts of the state.

Kerry might also be attractive to southeasterners which might be turned off by the hotheaded Dean.

Southeaterns means, PA southeaterners, right?

Heh. Precisely :-p

Just making sure...

[Gustaf]

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true but the republicans have a good chance it's still a swing state.

Bush got 46% in Michigan, so it isn't out of reach, it wouldn't take that big a swing to make it go GOP. Still, if the election is competitive, the Dems should be able to keep Michigan. Polls seem to indicate that, despite Bush huge lead in national polls, Michigan is still lean Dem.

[Gustaf]

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true but the republicans have a good chance it's still a swing state.

Bush got 46% in Michigan, so it isn't out of reach, it wouldn't take that big a swing to make it go GOP. Still, if the election is competitive, the Dems should be able to keep Michigan. Polls seem to indicate that, despite Bush huge lead in national polls, Michigan is still lean Dem.

The polls aren't going to start meaning a thing until there is at least a presumptive democratic nominee and Bush starts campaigning.  When the Bush campaign starts spending some of its vast war chest on TV spots and the like its going to be a whole different ball game.  If Bush is running ahead of various democrats now, wait until he starts his campaign.

On the other hand, the undecideds tend to break against an incumbant, and a lot have been going Bush' way recently, that could change. And when the Dems unite behind one nominee and have their convention it will boost that candidate.

[Gustaf]

Kerry indeed would have the edge in Minn and Mich.  His hardest defense of a Gore state would be Pa. I believe.  That looks 50 - 50 to me.  He could solidify that state by putting Gov Rundell (sp?) on the ticket.  It would be a dogfight in Iowa.  Oregon and Wisconsin I believe would lean ever so slightly to Kerry simply because I'm factoring in the Nader vote.

Bush needs to hold Ohio, Nevada, and Arizona which I think he can.

Fact is, I don't see either side making much headway in the other's territory.  This culture divide is so entrenched that neither side is going to win without a sweat.  Might have been the case with a Dean nomination, but that isn't going to happen now.  We are looking at a VERY close election no matter what any of the partisans try to tell you.  Of course I'm very partisan myself (as you all very well know).  However, i'm also very much a realist.  The country is split down the middle.

That's interesting, as it is always hard to distinguish what one wants to happen, from what is likely to happen.

Myself, I think that Bush will pick up some support from the last election, but he might lose some as well. I will stick by my earler prediction:

Kerry is a mainstream Democrat (not mainstream in America, but in the party), so he's a bit of a generic Democrat. Bush has incumbency, war leader and 9/11 going for him, economy still probably going against him, and it will be enough to garner a win. He also has more money. Kerry will lose honourably in the end, but will definitely break 200 EVs. A Newsweek poll shows Kerry leading Bush in a head-to-head matchup, btw.

How often does money lose in the US, just curious, since I think it matters more here than in Sweden.