MN Sen Recount (UPDATE: Stuart Smalley certified winner, lawsuit forthcoming)

[Lunar]

As we noted below, there's been a potentially huge development in the Franken recount: 171 new ballots have been found in the St. Paul suburb of Maplewood, reportedly because a machine breakdown prevented them from being counted the first time but the hand count easily picked them up.

So is there any chance that this could change the outcome?

The answer, like pretty much everything else in this recount, is a definite maybe.

It's simply not conceivable that these ballots alone would deliver Franken the win -- he's not going to carry all of them, but would instead get a small edge. As the local site MinnPost.com calculates, these ballots could give Franken a net gain of 12 votes, assuming they break in the same percentages as the rest of the precinct did.

But the found ballots could give Franken a big lift. The Franken camp's current calculation is that he trails Norm Coleman by 50 votes in this recount as of last night. So if the MinnPost calculation is accurate, this would narrow Franken's deficit to a mere 38 votes -- a margin that could be much more plausibly reversed in the remaining 7% of the vote yet to be recounted.

Of course, there are a whole bunch of other variables still at play, so the net impact of the new found ballots is tough to predict. But in a race as close as this one, they could potentially prove to be decisive.

Late Update: The Coleman campaign is calling foul, claiming the total ballots for this precinct now exceed the number of voters who officially signed in by 31 people -- and they're also saying these new ballots would apparently give Franken a net pickup of 37 votes, though it's not exactly clear how they concluded this. The county is looking into the situation.


http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/12/could_newly_discovered_ballots.php

Remember Franken's tally (biased but probably more accurate than a lot of numbers out there) has Coleman at +50...

[Sam Spade]

Clearly the Franken total is less biased than my results... 

[agcatter]

37 votes?  At the end of the count?  The numbers aren't adding up?

I'm sorry.  This doesn't pass the smell taste.

I guess deep down I was expecting something like this.

[Lunar]

Clearly the Franken total is less biased than my results... 

Oh, I forgot about your numbers sir.

[Lunar]

article on the fishiness potential:
http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/35382149.html?elr=KArks8c7PaP3E77K_3c::D3aDhUec7PaP3E77K_0c::D3aDhUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiU

[Sam Spade]

Clearly the Franken total is less biased than my results... 

Oh, I forgot about your numbers sir.

The fact that the vote numbers don't add up to the numbers that signed in is certainly fishy.  The funny thing is that Ramsey, out of all the counties, is the one place where the persons challenging the ballots actually have a slight clue as to how to do it (in other words, not a ton of ridiculous challenges).

Anyway, in total, I suspect the "actual changes" (in other words, the ones we clearly measure in my analysis, not including assumptions) from Ramsey will total about Franken +70.  It was +23 in St. Louis and is presently +18 in Hennepin (with 8% out).  The rest of the counties have been +35 Coleman roughly, with 25 of those votes coming from Becker county.

I'm still trying to figure out whether the story I have as to why I will join the Republican party and become active if Franken wins if Franken wins is deserving of a separate attention-whoring thread or should be just posted here.  I've been waiting patiently to throw it out, even though it's hard to do, as it still pisses me off.... (building suspense)

[Lunar]

I say go for the attention-whore thread.  It's what I would do if I were in your shoes (including joining the GOP in protest).

[Sam Spade]

The Franken camp's current calculation is that he trails Norm Coleman by 50 votes in this recount as of last night.

I should add, this line is key:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's probably where most of the additional math on my numbers is coming from.  In my opinion, a legitimate calculation from either side is, quite frankly, impossible, given the partisanness.  And obviously, we can't be perfect because we don't have access to the challenged ballots (in particular), and honestly what I saw from the Strib didn't convince me that the quality of each side's challenges was particularly greater than the other (but who knows).

However, what each partisan can do is take my base numbers (which is the best you're going to get) and impose their own viewpoints and variables on it.

[Sam Spade]

I say go for the attention-whore thread.  It's what I would do if I were in your shoes (including joining the GOP in protest).

I lean towards it too.  But only if Franken wins or gets seated or whatever.  Otherwise, it's merely something that I found about a week and a half before election day that changed some of my opinions here. (building suspense)

[opebo]

...I will join the Republican party and become active if Franken wins...

Well, SS, I've always thought of you as a Republican.

[Sam Spade]

...I will join the Republican party and become active if Franken wins...

Well, SS, I've always thought of you as a Republican.

And I've always thought of you, well...

as a worker. 

It's personal, not business, in this case.

[MarkWarner08]

...I will join the Republican party and become active if Franken wins...

Well, SS, I've always thought of you as a Republican.

And I've always thought of you, well...

as a worker. 

It's personal, not business, in this case.

Sam,

Why you choose a political party based on one candidate? Isn't Al Franken on the left balanced out by Jim Inhofe on the right? Is there any reason to case aside your individuality as an independent to join a marginalized political party out of spite?

[Sam Spade]

...I will join the Republican party and become active if Franken wins...

Well, SS, I've always thought of you as a Republican.

And I've always thought of you, well...

as a worker. 

It's personal, not business, in this case.

Sam,

Why you choose a political party based on one candidate? Isn't Al Franken on the left balanced out by Jim Inhofe on the right? Is there any reason to case aside your individuality as an independent to join a marginalized political party out of spite?

It's a personal issue.  Has little to do with politics.  Has everything to do with Al Franken.  Honestly, I didn't care before I found this out and won't care (well, I care in a different way) if he's not a member of the Senate as a Democrat.

[MarkWarner08]

...I will join the Republican party and become active if Franken wins...

Well, SS, I've always thought of you as a Republican.

And I've always thought of you, well...

as a worker. 

It's personal, not business, in this case.

Sam,

Why you choose a political party based on one candidate? Isn't Al Franken on the left balanced out by Jim Inhofe on the right? Is there any reason to case aside your individuality as an independent to join a marginalized political party out of spite?

It's a personal issue.  Has little to do with politics.  Has everything to do with Al Franken.  Honestly, I didn't care before I found this out and won't care (well, I care in a different way) if he's not a member of the Senate as a Democrat.

Why do I have to parse nearly all of your comments? Does "this" refer to some horrific indiscretion Al Franken has committed?  This is a guy who wrote "Porn-o-rama" -- I could imagine him doing something rather scuzzy...

[Хahar 🤔]

Come on, Sam. Either tell us or don't.

[Sam Spade]

Come on, Sam. Either tell us or don't.

Not until the race is over, sorry.

[Bacon King]

Now why in the world would you join the New York Republican Party on account some specific dude happened to have won a majority of the Minnesota DFL's Senate Primary and then is subsequently elected by the Minnesota electorate?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The AP,MSNBC, and CNN have called GA for CHambliss. So the "Tsar Reid seating Franken" plan is out the window.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Now why in the world would you join the New York Republican Party on account some specific dude happened to have won a majority of the Minnesota DFL's Senate Primary and then is subsequently elected by the Minnesota electorate?

Because Sam is being the attention whore he usually is and wants us to waste a thread or two massaging his ego.

[Sam Spade]

Now why in the world would you join the New York Republican Party on account some specific dude happened to have won a majority of the Minnesota DFL's Senate Primary and then is subsequently elected by the Minnesota electorate?

Because Sam is being the attention whore he usually is and wants us to waste a thread or two massaging his ego.

Do whatever you wish.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Maplewood is a St Paul suburb of 35,000.

The wiki article has only this to add to the standard statistical crap...

"Politics

Maplewood's Mayor (Diana Longrie) and Council (Rebecca Cave, Erik Hjelle, Kathy Junemann, and Will Rossbach) have garnered metro-area attention over the last year for a number of issues. Chief among these issues are the firings, resignations, and re-organizational plan that eliminated some positions."

lol

Also notable is its really weird and illogical shape. It's mostly north of St. Paul, but then a sliver of it about a mile along runs down the east side of St. Paul and is the only thing separating it from Washington county.

[Sam Spade]

As of today's update...

Counties to Be Completed
Beltrami (1 precinct) - Star Tribune reports as 100%.
Hennepin (35 precincts) - Pretty much all precincts are located in urban Minneapolis.
Ramsey (1 precinct) - Star Tribune reports as 100%.  The one precinct SOS hasn't reported had 0 votes.
Rock (100%) - Starts tomorrow.
Scott (100%) - Starts tomorrow.
Winona (100%) - Starts tomorrow.
Wright (100%) - Starts tomorrow.

[Sam Spade]

Update (Using My Method)
SOS
Coleman: 1,119,878 (1,122,217)
Franken: 1,122,413 (1,124,840)

Coleman: +303 (+215)

Actual Changes (With Assumptions in Parentheses)
Coleman: +173 (+76)
Franken: +253 (+141)
Total Change: Franken +80 (Franken +65)

Challenge Gap (With Assumptions in Parentheses)
Coleman (CH by Franken): -2512 (-2415)
Franken (CH by Coleman): -2680 (-2568)
Total Gap: Franken +168 (Franken +153)

Non-Subtracted Challenges
Coleman: 487
Franken: 434

Actual Total (With Challenge Gap Included, Assumptions in Parentheses)
Coleman +135 (Coleman +150)

[Lunar]

Does that include the +37?

[Sam Spade]

Does that include the +37?

Yes.  As you should note - Franken gained +35 (+40 with assumptions) from yesterday.

Anyway, basically it's those 35 precincts in Hennepin and the four counties left.  Unless they *find* votes in the one rural northern precinct - I tend to doubt that as it looks too fishy.