Are "double haters" the new norm beyond the Trump era?
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  Are "double haters" the new norm beyond the Trump era?
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Author Topic: Are "double haters" the new norm beyond the Trump era?  (Read 540 times)
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« on: April 29, 2024, 08:53:08 AM »

We're reading about and pollster frequently conduct surveys with so-called "double haters", ergo people disliking Biden and Trump as major party candidates. Sort of reminds me of 2016, while in 2020 Biden at least seemed semi-popular. That said, I wonder whether this would be any different in another matchup. Tbh, if the 2024 race was Harris vs. DeSantis, I'm fairly certain both would also have negative approvals (most likely even in double digits).

Could this phenomen be the new norm even beyond the age of Trump? Just look at surveys polling the favorabilities of other major US politicians. Most of them are underwater, regardless of party, ideology, age, gender or race. It feels like we're living in times of general anexity over politics and leaders and every presidential election is now more of a contest about who's the lesser evil. Imho, this goes way beyond Biden and Trump as candidates.
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Computer89
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« Reply #1 on: April 29, 2024, 09:32:57 AM »

I think it’s very possible we are entering an era of anti incumbency . So instead of incumbency being something that’s considered and advantage , it becomes considered a disadvantage and btw this isn’t the first time this has happened.

From 1836-1896: No incumbent president outside Lincoln or Grant ended up being reelected . So this was clearly an anti incumbency era in American politics

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Libs of Ben-Gvir
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« Reply #2 on: April 29, 2024, 10:37:32 AM »

Not the new norm because most of the electorate is actually hyper partisan but depending on the candidates they are a sizeable share of the electorate.

In a Biden vs Trump contest double haters are 15-20% of the electorate.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #3 on: April 29, 2024, 02:51:44 PM »

For now, it seems like it.

But 2028 could be a different story if both parties nominate fresh faces (Democrats certainly will).
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: April 30, 2024, 09:00:43 AM »

For now, it seems like it.

But 2028 could be a different story if both parties nominate fresh faces (Democrats certainly will).

Depends on the 2024 outcome. If Biden is reelected, I expect Harris to be the nominee. She won't cakewalk to the nomination alá Gore 2000, but she's at least the early frontrunner. She probably even runs with Biden losing this year, though then her task gets much more difficult as opposed to being a sitting VP.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #5 on: April 30, 2024, 11:01:15 AM »

About 1-in-4 Americans have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump. This sentiment is more common among younger adults than older adults, and among voters who identify as independents.  Only 2% of Americans have a favorable opinion of both, lol.  Pew Research

I don't think this is a new normal, however.  Trump and Biden are both uniquely unpopular politicians within their own parties.  Both parties will probably nominate more popular choices in 2028.
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Steve from Lambeth
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« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2024, 10:02:51 PM »
« Edited: May 05, 2024, 07:20:48 PM by Steve from Lambeth »

I think it’s very possible we are entering an era of anti incumbency . So instead of incumbency being something that’s considered and advantage , it becomes considered a disadvantage and btw this isn’t the first time this has happened.

From 1836-1896: No incumbent president outside Lincoln or Grant ended up being reelected . So this was clearly an anti incumbency era in American politics


More interesting is that, for all the noise made about the 22nd Amendment, only 13 of the 45 individual Presidents thusfar - George Washington Himself, Jefferson, Madison, Monroe, Andrew Johnson, Grant, Wilson, FDR, Eisenhower, Reagan, Clinton, GW Bush and Obama - have served eight consecutive years (and Cleveland famously served eight non-consecutive years).
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #7 on: May 02, 2024, 01:31:37 AM »

About 1-in-4 Americans have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump. This sentiment is more common among younger adults than older adults, and among voters who identify as independents.  Only 2% of Americans have a favorable opinion of both, lol.  Pew Research

I don't think this is a new normal, however.  Trump and Biden are both uniquely unpopular politicians within their own parties.  Both parties will probably nominate more popular choices in 2028.


2028 is possible, but as I said in the OP, it's not exclusively Biden and Trump. In a Harris vs. RDS matchup, it's relatively clear that both aren't liked as well.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2024, 01:57:45 PM »

About 1-in-4 Americans have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump. This sentiment is more common among younger adults than older adults, and among voters who identify as independents.  Only 2% of Americans have a favorable opinion of both, lol.  Pew Research

I don't think this is a new normal, however.  Trump and Biden are both uniquely unpopular politicians within their own parties. Both parties will probably nominate more popular choices in 2028.


I don’t really disagree, but:

Quote
Clinton couldn’t get much less popular among Republicans, 88 percent of whom see her unfavorably. But she’s also lost 8 points in this measure among independents (to 31 percent) and among Democrats (to 79 percent, versus Trump’s 72 percent among Republicans).

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/poll-clinton-unpopularity-high-par-trump/story?id=41752050

Is it just a coincidence that Hillary Clinton was also unpopular in 2016? The common denominator between then and now is Trump being the Republican nominee, but that could also be a coincidence.

I guess Democrats got spoiled with Obama (not that his popularity did them much good downballot…). Perhaps someone more popular than Biden or Clinton, but not as popular as Obama is a realistic hope for the Dems



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