The South

[memphis]

FL has been a GOP leaning swing state for many cycles. I don't see much evidence that this is changing. While NC has moved from safe R to likely R, I doubt very much it will move into bellweather status. Too many rural and suburban whites. Even more true for GA and SC. Virginia is a much more interesting case. So much of the state's economy is tied to the federal gov't. It's hard for a rabidly anti-federal gov't GOP to compensate. Would you vote for a party whose primary ideology is to hurt your area's main industry?

[memphis]

Growth in South Carolina is taking place mostly in Republican areas like the Upstate, York County, and Horry County, so I don't think we'll see a strong Democratic trend there.  Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas are really long shots too.  Georgia is the most promising.  Texas next.  Louisiana if some major re-birth happens in the New Orleans area.

I do think SC's 7th district and Horry County will be Democratic in the long run.  LOTS of Northern license plates in Myrtle Beach when I visit.  Same goes for Little River and other places near there.  They might be tax refugees from the North, but usually they trend Dem in the long run like they do in the Research Triangle area.

For some reason in the South, the coastal areas seem more liberal while inland all bets are off. 

WTF? Discounting South FL, as not really Southern, the coast, all the way from TX to VA is extremely conservative. Take a look at a county map. You have a few minority heavy cities like Savannah and Norfolk, but other than that, Republicans from South Padre to the Chesapeake Bay. Unlike most of SC, Horry has been trending GOP for many cycles now. It has nothing in common with the Research Triangle at all. If you want somewhere to compare it to, it's more like Arizona with retirees coming in for the sunshine.