How long can Jeb survive with under-10% polling and poor debate performances?

[Simfan34]

Provided that the rest of the "Establishment" candidates are also polling single-digits, and that Bush isn't faring particularly worse than the rest of them, he has no reason to drop out. The "Establishment" certainly isn't going to desert him for Trump, and it's almost just as improbable for them to turn to Carson, Cruz, or Huckabee until they were left with no other choice (i.e., at the end of the primary season).

I don't see Jeb going anywhere, then, until either another palatably reasonable candidate opens a significant lead over their peers-- not necessarily all candidates-- in the polls. There simply is no reason for him to do so, because unless that were to happen, his constituency would have no reason to drop him.

[Likely Voter]

It is true that Bush is ahead of other establishment types nationally but he is trailing Kasich in NH and Rubio in IA. He is also trailing Fiorina in both NH and IA. So there is certainly some concern with elites.

The problem for the establishment is that there isn't a clear anti-Trump they can all get behind, so Bush is sort of the default. Especially as Walker seems to have collapsed. But I think if Bush doesnt improve things by the CNBC debate then his fundraising will likely dry up, especially if another establishment friendly candidate is surging (maybe Kasich, Rubio or Fiorina?)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Provided that the rest of the "Establishment" candidates are also polling single-digits, and that Bush isn't faring particularly worse than the rest of them, he has no reason to drop out. The "Establishment" certainly isn't going to desert him for Trump, and it's almost just as improbable for them to turn to Carson, Cruz, or Huckabee until they were left with no other choice (i.e., at the end of the primary season).

I don't see Jeb going anywhere, then, until either another palatably reasonable candidate opens a significant lead over their peers-- not necessarily all candidates-- in the polls. There simply is no reason for him to do so, because unless that were to happen, his constituency would have no reason to drop him.

That's because Bush's presence is stealing oxygen and money from better establishment candidates like Marco and even Kasich. If those two got half the legup as Bush, they'd at least be competitive for second place. Maybe.

[Kingpoleon]

Fiorina and Kasich rise was great.  It take away Bush's supporters.  It is just too many fishes in that small pond.  I don't think Bush can even rise up to be #2 anymore unless a few of these people drop out (Kasich, Rubio, Fiorina).

I like Kasich a lot.  I hope he placed second or win New Hampshire.  That will like a nail in the coffin of Bush.  Kasich of course is a much easier opponent for Trump than Bush.

I see many people ranked Rubio as #1 on a lot of power ranking.  I think Rubio is done for the moment Trump shifted the conversation to immigration.

John Kasich was over rated in that first debate, he was especially weak on defending the Obamacare medicaid expansion and how he'd appeal to ordinary people. He kept obsessing over his time in Washington D.C. as the other senators know Americans don't want a Washington insider.

The answer to the question is, Governor Bush will rise because eventually, people will recognize we need a proven leader, not a self-promoter.

ohn Kasich:

- Fiscally Irresponsible
• Fact Check: Medicaid expansion provided economic stimulus, helps keep budget balanced
• Fact Check: Created 400,000 jobs in a state two-thirds the size of Bush's state
• Fact Check: Balanced the budget with a Democratic President
• Fact Check: Cut taxes the largest amount in the country

- Appeal to Ordinary People
• Fact Check: 60%/30% approval among independents
• Fact Check: Won 51% of union households
• Fact Check: Has Bush's total approval in Florida, 47%/45%, among Democrats alone
• Fact Check: Beating Bush in Iowa, N. H.
• Fact Check: Won most applause by far with appeal and inclusiveness in gay marriage answer


Kasich? Has an ego?

Jeb Bush, the son of a former President and brother to another, appeals more to "ordinary people" than Jeb Bush. Unless ordinary people excludes Democrats and independents, Kasich wins easily.

Jeb Bush, whose brother grew the deficit and caused an economic collapse still, unlike Obama. Jeb Bush, the dynasty candidate who is a "Washington outsider" apparently

What the heck? Ordinary people don't think Bush is a Washington outsider.

Jeb Bush:

Afraid of John Kasich.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

How long can he survive? With all the money he has raised? A long, long time. If/when he gets out of the race, it will be by choice, not by necessity like Perry just did.

How long will he choose to go? I'd say that if he sees a candidate he can get behind with a good chance of winning (and he's still mired in single digits) by the time Super Tuesday rolls around, he'll get out and try to get his man a leg up. That would probably get him an advantage in the VeepStakes, especially since he's from Florida.

[Horsemask]

Fiorina and Kasich rise was great.  It take away Bush's supporters.  It is just too many fishes in that small pond.  I don't think Bush can even rise up to be #2 anymore unless a few of these people drop out (Kasich, Rubio, Fiorina).

I like Kasich a lot.  I hope he placed second or win New Hampshire.  That will like a nail in the coffin of Bush.  Kasich of course is a much easier opponent for Trump than Bush.

I see many people ranked Rubio as #1 on a lot of power ranking.  I think Rubio is done for the moment Trump shifted the conversation to immigration.

John Kasich was over rated in that first debate, he was especially weak on defending the Obamacare medicaid expansion and how he'd appeal to ordinary people. He kept obsessing over his time in Washington D.C. as the other senators know Americans don't want a Washington insider.

The answer to the question is, Governor Bush will rise because eventually, people will recognize we need a proven leader, not a self-promoter.

ohn Kasich:

- Fiscally Irresponsible
• Fact Check: Medicaid expansion provided economic stimulus, helps keep budget balanced
• Fact Check: Created 400,000 jobs in a state two-thirds the size of Bush's state
• Fact Check: Balanced the budget with a Democratic President
• Fact Check: Cut taxes the largest amount in the country

- Appeal to Ordinary People
• Fact Check: 60%/30% approval among independents
• Fact Check: Won 51% of union households
• Fact Check: Has Bush's total approval in Florida, 47%/45%, among Democrats alone
• Fact Check: Beating Bush in Iowa, N. H.
• Fact Check: Won most applause by far with appeal and inclusiveness in gay marriage answer


Kasich? Has an ego?

Jeb Bush, the son of a former President and brother to another, appeals more to "ordinary people" than Jeb Bush. Unless ordinary people excludes Democrats and independents, Kasich wins easily.

Jeb Bush, whose brother grew the deficit and caused an economic collapse still, unlike Obama. Jeb Bush, the dynasty candidate who is a "Washington outsider" apparently

What the heck? Ordinary people don't think Bush is a Washington outsider.

Jeb Bush:

Afraid of John Kasich.

dudeabides: Afraid of John Kasich

[Clark Kent]

Bush is slipping, but he's not out yet. I expect him to last a while. Walker probably drops out before Bush does, and if Paul is anything like his father, he'll stay in for a long time regardless of his support.

[weixiaobao]

I'm not a fan of Jeb Bush, but this thread is ridiculous. He is polling in third place in a 16-candidate field, and he remains the most-supported traditional candidate.

Not really, in Iowa, Trump increasingly becoming a non factor.  He at best 4th after Cruz.

Rubio and Fiorina has about the same % as he is in Iowa, so technically he is tied for 4th, 5th, and 6th place in Iowa (and statistically tie with many more bottom feeders).

In New Hampshire, Bush is below Trump, Carson, Kasich, Fiorina.  About a tie with Cruz over there.  So it meant he is tied with 5th and 6th place in New Hampshire.

In South Carolina, he is below Trump, Carson, and Cruz.  Statistically, he tied with many bottom feeders.

So the first 3 states, he is a non factor despite having the most endorsements and the most money raise.  Is this thread still ridiculous?

[Blair]

, he was especially weak on defending the Obamacare medicaid expansion and how he'd appeal to ordinary people. He kept obsessing over his time in Washington D.C. as the other senators know Americans don't want a Washington insider.

The answer to the question is, Governor Bush will rise because eventually, people will recognize we need a proven leader, not a self-promoter.

Not really, I think medicaid is one of the programs that people support- I want people in poverty to get health coverage. I don't care if it's big government-republicans are fine with big government when it's giving aid to Israel, when it overruled the state of Florida in 2000 or when it's opposing marijuana legislation.

How he'd appeal to ordinary people? The son of working class immigrants from Pennsylvania against the silver spoon Bush Family. P 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

People largely support the Medicaid Expansion. They don't support the mandate, the Cadillac tax or the medical equipment tax though.

[Incipimus iterum]

Anything can happen, I mean look at John McCain people thought he was gone polling low but won in New Hampshire and then won the nomination. Point is this race is to early to count Jeb out, polls don't decide the victor.

[Maxwell]

Anything can happen, I mean look at John McCain people thought he was gone polling low but won in New Hampshire and then won the nomination. Point is this race is to early to count Jeb out, polls don't decide the victor.

The thing is, for all of John McCain's faults, he was a stronger candidate than the rest of the field. He showed that and that's why he won. There is no evidence that Jeb Bush is at all a strong candidate even considering the field.

[Simfan34]

People largely support the Medicaid Expansion. They don't support the mandate, the Cadillac tax or the medical equipment tax though.

People like the increased spending but they don't like paying for it. Shocker, that.

[dudeabides]

, he was especially weak on defending the Obamacare medicaid expansion and how he'd appeal to ordinary people. He kept obsessing over his time in Washington D.C. as the other senators know Americans don't want a Washington insider.

The answer to the question is, Governor Bush will rise because eventually, people will recognize we need a proven leader, not a self-promoter.

Not really, I think medicaid is one of the programs that people support- I want people in poverty to get health coverage. I don't care if it's big government-republicans are fine with big government when it's giving aid to Israel, when it overruled the state of Florida in 2000 or when it's opposing marijuana legislation.

How he'd appeal to ordinary people? The son of working class immigrants from Pennsylvania against the silver spoon Bush Family. P 

I didn't say I am opposed to the concept of medicaid, I was opposed to the Obamacare expansion because we have $18 trillion in debt and it is a band-aid on the underlying problems with our health care system - too much litigation, regulation, and government-control. Governor Kasich has not been able to defend the program using logic, so he moved to emotion, typical of the liberals.