Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Hatman 🍁]

I didn't get interviewed.  I feel so left out.

Sorry Gabu, maybe next time

On the extremely rare event that I do interview you, listen in for "Earl from Ekos Research"

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's a link to the article on the poll I did. I was a little off with my prediction, but not much.

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1131750620482&call_pageid=968332188492&col=968793972154&DPL=IvsNDS%2f7ChAX&tacodalogin=yes

[Hatman 🍁]

The Opposition have ganged together, and will be forcing a January election, most likely.

Here is the CBC's guide to the upcoming election:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/election2005/

[Hatman 🍁]

As with most Ontario New Democrats I have to make a call, do I volunteer for the Liberal or NDP campaign in my area. In Brampton West the NDP has the same chance of winning as about the Greens. I like the Liberal here well enough.

The election is coming, inevitably. Can't vote yet, but I still have to back a candidate.

Siege

Well, I refuse to vote Liberal under any circumstance (unless Belinda Stronach or Sheila Copps was running here). I'd rather vote Conservative. I will probably vote NDP, but I might go Green or Conservative depending.

[Hatman 🍁]

As with most Ontario New Democrats I have to make a call, do I volunteer for the Liberal or NDP campaign in my area. In Brampton West the NDP has the same chance of winning as about the Greens. I like the Liberal here well enough.

The election is coming, inevitably. Can't vote yet, but I still have to back a candidate.

Siege

Well, I refuse to vote Liberal under any circumstance (unless Belinda Stronach or Sheila Copps was running here). I'd rather vote Conservative. I will probably vote NDP, but I might go Green or Conservative depending.

I hate the Liberal Party as an establishment, but like most of their policies, and I like the NDP for the party, and platform, but there's a certain sense of reality I have to take into consideration.

Colleen Baumier, my MP is acutally a good woman, and I have nothing against her, but her party... it has problems.

Siege

Yeah, I'm with you 100%. Although I don't like my MP (David McGuinty) all that much, as he is a Martinite. The thing you have to consider is that,  you are voting for a party more than you are voting for a person. Such is a fact in the Canadian system.

[Hatman 🍁]

As with most Ontario New Democrats I have to make a call, do I volunteer for the Liberal or NDP campaign in my area. In Brampton West the NDP has the same chance of winning as about the Greens. I like the Liberal here well enough.

The election is coming, inevitably. Can't vote yet, but I still have to back a candidate.

Siege

Well, I refuse to vote Liberal under any circumstance (unless Belinda Stronach or Sheila Copps was running here). I'd rather vote Conservative. I will probably vote NDP, but I might go Green or Conservative depending.

I hate the Liberal Party as an establishment, but like most of their policies, and I like the NDP for the party, and platform, but there's a certain sense of reality I have to take into consideration.

Colleen Baumier, my MP is acutally a good woman, and I have nothing against her, but her party... it has problems.

Siege

Yeah, I'm with you 100%. Although I don't like my MP (David McGuinty) all that much, as he is a Martinite. The thing you have to consider is that,  you are voting for a party more than you are voting for a person. Such is a fact in the Canadian system.

From what I remember, Ottawa is friendly with the NDP, and that's McGuinty's riding, perhaps the NDP can be competitive there, but that's not possible in the 905.

Siege

You're thinking of Ottawa Centre. I live in Ottawa South. The NDP can't get any higher than the national average here, like they did in 2004 (with a star candidate).

[Hatman 🍁]

As with most Ontario New Democrats I have to make a call, do I volunteer for the Liberal or NDP campaign in my area. In Brampton West the NDP has the same chance of winning as about the Greens. I like the Liberal here well enough.

The election is coming, inevitably. Can't vote yet, but I still have to back a candidate.

Siege

Well, I refuse to vote Liberal under any circumstance (unless Belinda Stronach or Sheila Copps was running here). I'd rather vote Conservative. I will probably vote NDP, but I might go Green or Conservative depending.

I hate the Liberal Party as an establishment, but like most of their policies, and I like the NDP for the party, and platform, but there's a certain sense of reality I have to take into consideration.

Colleen Baumier, my MP is acutally a good woman, and I have nothing against her, but her party... it has problems.

Siege

Yeah, I'm with you 100%. Although I don't like my MP (David McGuinty) all that much, as he is a Martinite. The thing you have to consider is that,  you are voting for a party more than you are voting for a person. Such is a fact in the Canadian system.

From what I remember, Ottawa is friendly with the NDP, and that's McGuinty's riding, perhaps the NDP can be competitive there, but that's not possible in the 905.

Siege

You're thinking of Ottawa Centre. I live in Ottawa South. The NDP can't get any higher than the national average here, like they did in 2004 (with a star candidate).

Ah. My mistake.

It just means I have to campaing in a different riding. I've already done a bit of work for the Ottawa Centre NDP anyways. I went to a few committee meetings too.

[Hatman 🍁]

This should be an interesting week, this is when the writ is to drop...

Siege

Where did you hear this information?

[Hatman 🍁]

They vote on it Monday. Election will either be on the 16th or the 23rd

[Hatman 🍁]

Play around with this:

http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/

[Hatman 🍁]

They did one of those for the U.K election; very fun

Yeah. Though I have already found two bugs. Try and find them!

I emailed them about it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ugh...I don't know who to back in this thing...

I'm best charactized as a Red Tory (in the socially liberal sense)...


Given how the Liberals are a tad too corrupt for their own good...perhaps its time for Harper...even for just a short while?

You'd fit in well with the Greens I think. (Socially Liberal, Economically Conservative)

[Hatman 🍁]

Greens? Economically Conservative?

What?

In Canada they are. Their leader is a former tory.

[Hatman 🍁]

What would happen if ( and its a big if ) if the Liberals fiish 3rd in seats behind the Conservatives and the NDP, who would they support in govt ?

Well, if they did finish third, we would be looking at a Conservative majority.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, an NDP government is possible in the future, but not likely for 2005. The reason I am optimistic about the future is that the poll that I helped conduct last month found about 40% of Canadians would either vote NDP or support them as their second choice. However, I would be surprised if they broke 20% this year.

However, if this is the case

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The Conservatives would attempt to govern like the Liberals are now (no coallitions) but would ultimately fail. That's what a lot of people say. 103 + 55 is a majority, so my personal prediction would be an attempt at a grand coallition like in Germany. Although, with the way the Conservatives have been at the throats of the Liberals, I am beginning to agree with others who think that we would be heading to the polls again in a few months.

[Hatman 🍁]

No chance of the Bloc backing either the NDP or Conservatives?

Any party would be afraid to work with the Bloc, because they a separatists, and that is not cool with a lot of voters. However, I could see the NDP working with them (not in a formal coallition though) because they are so similar policy wise (outside of separatism of course). Many people say the Tories and the Bloc would work together as well, but that makes little sense. They only really agree on provincial rights issues.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, an NDP government is possible in the future, but not likely for 2005. The reason I am optimistic about the future is that the poll that I helped conduct last month found about 40% of Canadians would either vote NDP or support them as their second choice. However, I would be surprised if they broke 20% this year.

However, if this is the case

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The Conservatives would attempt to govern like the Liberals are now (no coallitions) but would ultimately fail. That's what a lot of people say. 103 + 55 is a majority, so my personal prediction would be an attempt at a grand coallition like in Germany. Although, with the way the Conservatives have been at the throats of the Liberals, I am beginning to agree with others who think that we would be heading to the polls again in a few months.

This leads me to my next question. If the Liberals have to chosse between the Tories and the NDP wills this cause internal infighting between those in the Liberal Party who are into centre-left point of view and the free-marketeers who would not be to out of place within the Conservatives but for social conservatism?

Well in this parliament, the Liberals were co-operating more with the NDP than with the Conservatives. It seems the tories and the Liebrals hate eachother so much. Plus, you have to understand the people who vote Liberal do so because they are not socially Conservative. (even if they vote for a socially Conservative Liberal). They would have little tolerance of a Liberal government co-operating with the Conservatives.

[Hatman 🍁]

So can anyone give me some good links so I can familiarize myself with this thing?  It's definately happening in January?

Most likely. We won't know until Monday.

Some good websites:

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election%2C_2006
* http://www.nodice.ca/elections/canada/
* http://www.canadawebpages.com/

[Hatman 🍁]

is it even possible for the conservative party to win a majority.

Anything is possible, but I would say a majority is very unlikely. Especially without any support in Quebec.

[Hatman 🍁]

What would it take for the Conservative to win in Quebec? or is that impossible...and they are basically facing the same sort of extremely uphill battle that the UK tories have in Scotland and Wales?

(In other words, is there any sort of center right bloc there?)

Like Scotland, Conservatives used to do really well there but have since been just about wiped out.

According to Earl's awesome maps, PC got 84% of the seats in Quebec in the 1988 election. 

I guess you're talking about the one's on Wikipedia?

Anyways, the tories have always had troubles winning in Quebec, but when they do win, they win big. In the 80's, Mulroney teamed up with nationalists in Quebec in order to get his majority. However, before and after Mulroney, seats in Quebec for the tories have been few and far between. The Conservatives finished 2nd place in one riding in Quebec, so it's not out of the question. However, with Harper as leader, the Conservatives can kiss seats in Quebec goodbye.

[Hatman 🍁]

What would it take for the Conservative to win in Quebec? or is that impossible...and they are basically facing the same sort of extremely uphill battle that the UK tories have in Scotland and Wales?

(In other words, is there any sort of center right bloc there?)

Like Scotland, Conservatives used to do really well there but have since been just about wiped out.

According to Earl's awesome maps, PC got 84% of the seats in Quebec in the 1988 election. 

I guess you're talking about the one's on Wikipedia?

Anyways, the tories have always had troubles winning in Quebec, but when they do win, they win big. In the 80's, Mulroney teamed up with nationalists in Quebec in order to get his majority. However, before and after Mulroney, seats in Quebec for the tories have been few and far between. The Conservatives finished 2nd place in one riding in Quebec, so it's not out of the question. However, with Harper as leader, the Conservatives can kiss seats in Quebec goodbye.

At least the PC's at their very worst got a few seats in Quebec.  CPC definately needs someone other than Stephen Harper as leader.

Yeah.

On another note, before Mulroney the last previous success for the tories was Diefenbaker, a guy from Saskatchewan. Apparently he formed an alliance with Maurice Duplessis, and the Liberal leader wasn't from Quebec either. Of course, this was before the Quiet revolution, so Quebec was the opposite of what it is today. They would try to burn Andre Boisclair at the stake.

[Hatman 🍁]

What would it take for the Conservative to win in Quebec? or is that impossible...and they are basically facing the same sort of extremely uphill battle that the UK tories have in Scotland and Wales?

(In other words, is there any sort of center right bloc there?)

Like Scotland, Conservatives used to do really well there but have since been just about wiped out.

According to Earl's awesome maps, PC got 84% of the seats in Quebec in the 1988 election. 

Thing is, if I remember correctly, a lot of the Tory vote in scotland had nothing to do with conservatism and everything to do with the fact that the Tories were the "unionist" party (so much so that they were the last party to get a majority of the vote).

So now that the unionist question isn't as well...important (or at least the reason why people vote the way they do)...the left parties do much better...

I'm wondering if Quebec is just that much more leftist or something relative to the rest of canada (especially Ontario)

Quebec is very leftist. Very VERY leftist. They just elected a gay former cocaine user as their leader of the opposition.

[Hatman 🍁]

What would it take for the Conservative to win in Quebec? or is that impossible...and they are basically facing the same sort of extremely uphill battle that the UK tories have in Scotland and Wales?

(In other words, is there any sort of center right bloc there?)

Like Scotland, Conservatives used to do really well there but have since been just about wiped out.

According to Earl's awesome maps, PC got 84% of the seats in Quebec in the 1988 election. 

Thing is, if I remember correctly, a lot of the Tory vote in scotland had nothing to do with conservatism and everything to do with the fact that the Tories were the "unionist" party (so much so that they were the last party to get a majority of the vote).

So now that the unionist question isn't as well...important (or at least the reason why people vote the way they do)...the left parties do much better...

I'm wondering if Quebec is just that much more leftist or something relative to the rest of canada (especially Ontario)

Quebec is very leftist. Very VERY leftist. They just elected a gay former cocaine user as their leader of the opposition.

Thats what I thought...Scotland, Wales, for whatever reason, once you strip away the Loyalist/religion question...are likely more left than the rest of the country...Al, comparatively speaking, is it fair to say that Wales and Scotland are less affluent than England (overall)?

And Earl...a similar question for you...where does Quebec stand in terms of affluence (probably ahead of the maritimes)...but what else?

Quebec is pretty average, I'd say. Not as rich as Ontario or Alberta, but not poor like the Atlantic provinces. However, poorer areas of Quebec are  more likely to support seperatism. Look at Montreal, the wealthier areas like Westmount and Mont Royal are Liberal stronghold, while poorer areas like Hochelaga are BQ/PQ strongholds.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yay! The Hill and Knwolton people fixed the bugs I found

[Hatman 🍁]

What do people think about the EKOS Research Poll from November 26 that puts the Liberals within striking distance over the course of the campaign of a majority government?  I've heard Ekos polls tend to overestimate support for more left-wing parties, but I get the sense from the accompanying article ( http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&call_pageid=971358637177&c=Article&cid=1132960213015 ) that the results of this poll are significantly better for the Liberals than the results of the last poll.  So what do our Canadian posters (and others too) think?  Was this whole sponsergate scandal a blip in a long run of Liberal dominance or will Canadians not see a Liberal majority government for some time to come?  Or is the truth somewhere in the middle, like perhaps it will take a few years or a full five-year period after the coming election for the Liberals to again win a majority?

Hey, I work for Ekos Although, I have been busy with school, so I missed doing that poll. When I did the poll before it, I did find a lot of people picking the NDP. I dont know why, it was an open ended question. (If the election were held tommorow, which party would you vote for?)