Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[batmacumba]

I started writing this last week... no time to finish, but I'll post It anyway and try to finish until tomorrow.



Brazilian presidential elections can only feasible be polled within some months before election day, due the complicated balance between ideological, class based, personal, alliance wise, media manipulated,  regional and machine oriented voting patterns.
Right now, it's time to build alliances, test tubing, discourse creation and maturation, playing defense and be wise on attacks.

Does Silva have a chance? What could be her winning strategy?

Not at all; and there isn't. She became just a tool (this was clear at some point, in 2010, but most voters only realized It after election) and her ticket (and also her new - nonexistent - political movement) was basically a media creation. No serious party would be willing to support her.

In the poll you showed, Neves only got 12%, where does Brazilian right wingers go if they don’t vote Neves?

They'll go anywhere big media tell them to go. Neves just doesn't have sufficient name recognition outside MG yet, and this could be a symptom that media magnates may be insecure of his candidacy.

Why is Alckmin called Chu-chu?

Chuchu = Chayote
It's an extremely watery-flavored veggie. The original pun was calling him a Chuchu popsicle, so strong tasted he is.

Anyway, the party labels are even less meaningful this cycle than they used to be in the last 15 years.

PSDB, since the mid 90's is a big tent party which ranges from compassionate conservatism to social-liberalism; sustained by the 1%ers, modernized oligarchs and media moguls, they're 'socially liberal' (in the American sense) pro-business and generally have an anti-unionist discourse (despite recently pandering to unions, after 2010 election).
Aécio's government, on the other hand, was heavily corporatist ('was' is a really wrong word in this case, but officially He is a senator, now). Media control reached unbelievable levels in a democratic state; there are plenty of state programs, all of them siamesely twinned with the business community and interests who, on their part, have practically the hegemony of the state assembly (which is the most expensive and money wasting in the country, with hilarious pork spending even to the awfully low Brazilian standards) and every channel of political speech. Teacher's wages are a joke, but the plentiful managerial positions for young management graduates and silly MB A's completely unaware of the world have a sweet, sweet paying.

[batmacumba]

The level of political machine control of SP state in these 20 years of PSDB power is also kinda scary, but, at least, they divide It with the other loot... parties. In MG all the main positions are personal appointments: the group around Aécio puts someone they want in a coalition party and then this is the participation of that party on government. In the end, only PT and a small fraction of PMDB is not controlled by them. PCdoB opposes those who pay them less, so they aren't so vocally opposed to the government and PSoL is a non-issue. I call the state of affairs in this funny state of mine, oximorously, 'Democratic Fascism".
To make things stranger, He may not be so committed to maintain the SP financial hegemony over the country - and this may be the reason He started to court Campos. There are huge disagreements over the feasibility of this last statement.

[batmacumba]

To understand Campos:
The PSB is the party assented over the most ancient political tradition by now, even if in its contemporary incarnation they have very few in common with their origins.
It started in '47, with the heirs of radicalism; an anti-Vargas left party, with a fairly nationalist position, but on the most strong culturally liberal and republicanist tradition of the French type of left. Not linked to unions, nevertheless they had a broad workers, peasants and middle-class oriented discourse and stated they agreed the bulk of Marxist criticism and analysis, but It shouldn't be taken as dogma and that liberal democracy should never be downplayed. They had an impressive penetration on Rio's intellectual groups (IE, few votes) and São Paulo's populists (oddly, linkened to Jânio Quadros), but, apart of these, only amongst student unions and the 'Peasant Leagues'. After the '64 coup, they merged into PMDB, while part of their youth wing would help forming the POLOP guerrilla group.
With the return of multipartidarism, the party was re-founded with the same original manifesto and venerable intellectuals, but now controlled by former PCB bureaucrats who were unwilling to defend any kind of dictatorship (in Rio and the south, I think) a mix of the former left of the Labours and the same pre-coup populists (in SP and the south) an improbable coalition of impoverished and sub-employed shantytown dwelling workers with the former middle-class student leadership who struggled against the dictatorship (in MG) and non-Trotskyite ultra-leftists who were at odds with the Trotskyite ultra-leftists inside the PT (in the NE) – amongst other types of heterodox left. On other words: a much more leftist outfit, leaning libertarian-Marxist and, as It’s plainly observable, completely dysfunctional. To the ‘Petistas’ this was the bourgeois left, to PCdoB, It was their non-revolutionary cousins.
So, It was natural that, when old left-populist maverick Miguel Arraes (who was akin to the party before ’64) changed from the PMDB to the PSB, after ‘89’s election, He became the party’s strong man. Following him, reform-minded wealthy northeasterners come dominating the party. It was also boosted with Petistas and commies defections. From ’89 on, the party was a junior partner to the ever growing PT, but they were able to ally themselves with the PMDB, the PSDB, the PPS or the PDT, especially in situations where they were stronger than the PT, thus the (at the time) extremely uncompromising Petista rank-and-file were unwilling to accept being in a junior position. They also started to run anyone who could be elected (independently of ideological consistence).
Arraes kept being a somewhat controversial maverick: there was a grassroots political cult of him, amongst the poorer strata of the peasantry in PE (once a guy told me he cured his sick child with an Arraes’ photograph infusion!), and He oriented his administration specifically to them. The social results were great, improving amazingly the situation of one of the country’s most miserable populations, but He’s got a deeply disgruntled middle and upper class opposition, in a place where political machines and coronels still had lots of power.


Big breath... more tomorrow; It's late and a six pack is enough for tonight.

[politicus]

Brazilian presidential elections can only feasible be polled within some months before election day, due the complicated balance between ideological, class based, personal, alliance wise, media manipulated,  regional and machine oriented voting patterns.
Right now, it's time to build alliances, test tubing, discourse creation and maturation, playing defense and be wise on attacks.

Does Silva have a chance? What could be her winning strategy?

Not at all; and there isn't. She became just a tool (this was clear at some point, in 2010, but most voters only realized It after election) and her ticket (and also her new - nonexistent - political movement) was basically a media creation. No serious party would be willing to support her.

In the poll you showed, Neves only got 12%, where does Brazilian right wingers go if they don’t vote Neves?

They'll go anywhere big media tell them to go. Neves just doesn't have sufficient name recognition outside MG yet, and this could be a symptom that media magnates may be insecure of his candidacy.

Why is Alckmin called Chu-chu?

Chuchu = Chayote
It's an extremely watery-flavored veggie. The original pun was calling him a Chuchu popsicle, so strong tasted he is.

So who is Silva a "tool" for?

[Sec. of State Superique]

Why is Alckman called Chu-chu?

Chuchu means Cabbage, Actualy his nickname was Picolé de Chuchu, Cabbage Popsicle. He was a guy without any kind of charisma, he was not like Lula... Do you ever noticed how cabbage doesn't have any kind of taste...

Cabbage? That's not what we call chuchu in Minas Gerais ;p

It's supposed to be "chayote" in English: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chayote

Haha That is it! I alwats have a problem translating chuchu in English but I think you could understand my explanation, couldn't  you?

[Niemeyerite]

Why is Alckman called Chu-chu?

Chuchu means Cabbage, Actualy his nickname was Picolé de Chuchu, Cabbage Popsicle. He was a guy without any kind of charisma, he was not like Lula... Do you ever noticed how cabbage doesn't have any kind of taste...

Cabbage? That's not what we call chuchu in Minas Gerais ;p

It's supposed to be "chayote" in English: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chayote

Haha That is it! I alwats have a problem translating chuchu in English but I think you could understand my explanation, couldn't  you?

Of course I can, Ralph Nader. Don't forget to post something in the 2008 campaign thread, BTW!

[batmacumba]

Brazilian presidential elections can only feasible be polled within some months before election day, due the complicated balance between ideological, class based, personal, alliance wise, media manipulated,  regional and machine oriented voting patterns.
Right now, it's time to build alliances, test tubing, discourse creation and maturation, playing defense and be wise on attacks.

Does Silva have a chance? What could be her winning strategy?

Not at all; and there isn't. She became just a tool (this was clear at some point, in 2010, but most voters only realized It after election) and her ticket (and also her new - nonexistent - political movement) was basically a media creation. No serious party would be willing to support her.

In the poll you showed, Neves only got 12%, where does Brazilian right wingers go if they don't vote Neves?

They'll go anywhere big media tell them to go. Neves just doesn't have sufficient name recognition outside MG yet, and this could be a symptom that media magnates may be insecure of his candidacy.

Why is Alckmin called Chu-chu?

Chuchu = Chayote
It's an extremely watery-flavored veggie. The original pun was calling him a Chuchu popsicle, so strong tasted he is.

So who is Silva a "tool" for?

The same diffuse interest which's vetting Campos now and is insecure with Aécio. She doesn't have any political base, only electoral propaganda machine; her advisers come from within the SP financial interests intelligentsia; periodically, conservative media praises her despite she's doing absolutely nothing.

It's not any kind of cabal meeting in a room controlling things (despite, sure, there will always be people silly enough to believe such a thing). I won't even say she's consciously doing this (as It happens so many times in these cases - I think she truly believes she's doing something), but, basically, Marina's role is to take votes from Dilma and, if everything goes right, transfer some of those to whoever is the anointed at the second round. This was what happened in 2010 and will just be astroturf turned on 330V in 2014. Now she doesn't even have a proper party.

I know this may sound a little hackish, nevertheless, believe me: Brazilian parties may be utterly shjtty, but nonexistent 'movements' from outside any kind of preexisting political base, concocted at Paulista Av. and Jardim Botânico Neighbourhood, can't be called anything but tools. If this was serious, she would have passed the last 3 years building It. She didn't. It could have worked.

[RodPresident]

PSOL collected signatures and got registration in almost 2 years. Marina has to hurry up if she wants anything in 2014.

[batmacumba]

So, continuing on Campos' genesis as a viable candidate...



Eduardo Campos is Arraes’ grandson. Raised in the oligarchy, but heir to his grandpa political tradition, Campos is a graduated economist and was turned into Finances Secretary by Arraes, during his third tenure as Governor. This was the first time I’ve noticed a severe problem with our press: being a vocal oppositor of FHC’s administration, the main magazines and newspapers only talked about PE to blast any Arraes’ actions, even when It was obvious  there seemed to be nothing wrong with them. Then, a scandal with precatorys (writs of payment?) appeared on the press – initially It was one more scheme linked to arch-crook Paulo Maluf, but soon It was found that the financial operation passed through PE’s cashier. Actually, It got stuck in It. The next day, all big papers had the news on front page, and second page attacks on Arraes  were everywhere (few things on Maluf). Surprisingly, Campos came to public with the whole state spreadsheet opened and showed three very interesting things: 1 – all the money which could be profited by the operation was thrown inside PE’s budget and expended on public actions, nothing went to private actors; 2 - FHC simply stopped repassing federal funds to PE, thus, without the precatorys’ funds the state would be completely broken; 3 – the private groups linked to the scheme were long date donators to the PSDB in SP. The next day, the issue was out of media, but attacks on Arraes and Campos kept been taken, always remembering “they were linked to the precatorys scandal” but telling nothing more than this, neither investigating any further the case. Summing up: they entered a corrupt scheme, took the money to be stolen and used It in benefit of the state, once they weren’t receiving  the due share of national funds… Weird, isn’t It?
Weird, but not enough to secure reelection. The state economy was in shambles anyway, a policemen strike , which spawned from there throughout the country, left the sate in complete disarray and both men were facing prosecution. If It wasn’t for some strength built in neighbour states, plus the mayor of Belo Horizonte and Luísa Erundina’s strength in SP, It should be their demise. Nevertheless, they were junior league, again.

PS. I've forgotten - there also was João Capiberibe in AP, the Quixote who stands against King Sarney, the Long-gone-but-never-really-gone. This is another very interesting case of a media/judges/conservative-political-machine fiend bashed by a scandal-which-was-not-a-scandal-and-that-nobody-remembers-what-happend-except-there-was-a-scandal, but, being only a Quixote, he was found guilty. And, then, when some fact surfaced, not guilty at all. But this story does not belong here.

[batmacumba]

This had become an unwanted and sporadic (putative) candidate's list, but I think I'll keep doing it, anyway.
A little breath and some more on Campos' genesis:


Talking about weird things, in the process of building up the 2002 elections, the PSB welcomed RJ’s governor Anthony Garotinho. A former PCB youth turned born-again Christian, Garotinho had broken both with his mentor, veteran Populist-Labour Caudillo Leonel Brizola (who denied him the presidential ticket on PDT), and with the local PT, which He accused of wanting nothing more than political machine positions. This was quite a bold move and alienated the small still ideological base the party had, driving historical supporters and officials away, but drew in a new electorate which was completely ignored until then: the fledging evangelical poor suburban population. Garotinho hiked the presidential election polls to the point It seemed unlikely José Serra would be able to take It in the second round with Lula.
Then, as expected, the press suddenly started to find lots of dirty things about Garotinho, specially after, according to political insiders, a couple of investigators linked to the PSDB searched for every little piece of paper they could find in RJ state countryside, backed by insider information about his tax collecting. Sure, in the subsequent electoral cycles, when Petistas tried to do the same, the press made a giant hiss, calling them thieves and accusing of playing dirty, but at this time, everybody was pretty happy and Garotinho sunk.

[RodPresident]

It was because a threesold of 5%. Garotinho helped PSB nationally to get it. Garotinho split with PDT and PT when he supported undercover Luiz Paulo Conde (then PFL) reelection bid in 2000 against Brizola and Lieutenant Governor Benedita da Silva. In 2002, Garotinho was believed that he would stay at midrange and that brought a panic among PSB members. São Paulo (Jacó Bittar, former mayor of Campinas) and Bahia (Lidice da Mata, now senator) dropped out fearing a failure. But with Ciro's colapse and evangelical support, Garotinho got a late surge but received Serra's attacks at last 15 days of campaign and failed to get to runoff, although he was able to get Rosinha's victory at first round in Rio.
He split with PSB because he hoped to get a ministerial job in Lula's government like Ciro Gomes, but failed. He went to PMDB with promise of being presidential candidate in 2006. His demise in 2006 was brought by a pro-Lula PMDB wing that feared that a populist Garotinho campaign would take many voters from him in post-Mensalão wave, while PSDB and right-wings feared that Garotinho would take their place as one of main forces and becoming a Brazilian version of Kirchner and Chavez. Veja (most pro-PSDB magazine) published an attack towards Garotinho.

[batmacumba]

Basically that.
I would just point out that Garotinho's problem with PT and Brizola came, initially, from the well known petista eagerness for administrative positions and machine control.
Garotinho's break with the PSB is a little less plain, OTOH. I'll try to develop this, next post. But, for now, I'm just travelling to MG's 'coast'. So, If you're willing to take the presentation to our foreigner colleagues on the next week-and-a-half, feel free!

Veja (most pro-PSDB magazine)

I'd say it's more the opposite: PSDB (most pro-Veja party)
The way our old elites found to keep control of the country, after Collor's disaster, was very, very innovative.

[RodPresident]

batmacumba...You're good. Veja was a good magazine, but they radicalized as Lula became able to win election. I remember when Garotinho called PT of "partido da boquinha". Garotinho owes his election in 1998 because PT intervention to give support to him, because PSDB neutrality in run-off against César Maia (Cabral who was Legislative Assembly speaker allied with Garotinho and switched some time after to PMDB) and evangelical support. Brizola by 1998 wasn't so influential in Rio politics. To show that, he got only a 4th place in Rio mayoral election and a 6th place in 2002 senatorial election.
Roberto Marinho (Globo's owner) said after Collor's debacle that "We won't be able to elect one of us again". Then they propped FHC.
Enjoy your moqueca capixaba, batmacumba.

[batmacumba]

Enjoy your moqueca capixaba, batmacumba.

Thanks! It was delicious, with sururú.

[batmacumba]

So, after many kilos of moqueca, pirão, shrimp, crabs and sun, let's take this back.


Arraes, on the other hand, was elected congressman with such a share of the votes, He was able to boost the PSB caucus, completed with lots of pastors and evangelic community leaders from throughout the country – and some of the old socialists who were able to surf the evangelical wave. This had a lot of impact later, once It attached a part of the evangelic leadership to a social-christian speech (only speech, they are the most crooked of them all and have no other ideology than pork, but they were detached of automatic conservative support). He was also able to elect a good share of governors in the surrounding states. It was pretty clear, at this point, that the whole move was made to guarantee a share of 5% of the congressional voting.
This was also important to cement the PSB position as a governing partner to Lula and, as Roberto Freire with his ex-commie PPS decided that neo-liberalism was warmer and sexier than neo-keynesianism, attract fellow maverick Ciro Gomes to the party.


More of this when my digestive system recovers from seafood.

[batmacumba]

On a small note,

Marina Silva defended and gave an eulogy to the polemic deputy Pr. Marco Feliciano, a fundamentalist who managed to be chosen president of the congress' Human Rights comission. LGBT's, blacks and feminists are in a giant hiss, since then (together with everyone who is not a fascist pig).

Every friend of mine who voted for her 'xingou muito no twitter' (stupid meme), i.e., put in every virtual community that they wouldn't vote for her anymore. It seems that she is exchanging young bobos (her main urban vote in 2010) for fundamentalist christians.

Bad move, IMO.

[Niemeyerite]

On a small note,

Marina Silva defended and gave an eulogy to the polemic deputy Pr. Marco Feliciano, a fundamentalist who managed to be chosen president of the congress' Human Rights comission. LGBT's, blacks and feminists are in a giant hiss, since then (together with everyone who is not a fascist pig).

Every friend of mine who voted for her 'xingou muito no twitter' (stupid meme), i.e., put in every virtual community that they wouldn't vote for her anymore. It seems that she is exchanging young bobos (her main urban vote in 2010) for fundamentalist christians.

Bad move, IMO.

If she continues that way, my family may vote for her.

[batmacumba]

On a small note,

Marina Silva defended and gave an eulogy to the polemic deputy Pr. Marco Feliciano, a fundamentalist who managed to be chosen president of the congress' Human Rights comission. LGBT's, blacks and feminists are in a giant hiss, since then (together with everyone who is not a fascist pig).

Every friend of mine who voted for her 'xingou muito no twitter' (stupid meme), i.e., put in every virtual community that they wouldn't vote for her anymore. It seems that she is exchanging young bobos (her main urban vote in 2010) for fundamentalist christians.

Bad move, IMO.

If she continues that way, my family may vote for her.

If I remember well what you tell about your family, they seem a perfect target for Dudu Beleza. Marina will probably take the poorer conservatives, if she maintain this course.

[Niemeyerite]

On a small note,

Marina Silva defended and gave an eulogy to the polemic deputy Pr. Marco Feliciano, a fundamentalist who managed to be chosen president of the congress' Human Rights comission. LGBT's, blacks and feminists are in a giant hiss, since then (together with everyone who is not a fascist pig).

Every friend of mine who voted for her 'xingou muito no twitter' (stupid meme), i.e., put in every virtual community that they wouldn't vote for her anymore. It seems that she is exchanging young bobos (her main urban vote in 2010) for fundamentalist christians.

Bad move, IMO.

If she continues that way, my family may vote for her.

If I remember well what you tell about your family, they seem a perfect target for Dudu Beleza. Marina will probably take the poorer conservatives, if she maintain this course.

I was joking, they'll vote for Neves, even if they don't like him, for sure (one of my aunts may vote for Silva: she voted for her in the 1st round in 2010, then switched to Serra).

[batmacumba]

On a small note,

Marina Silva defended and gave an eulogy to the polemic deputy Pr. Marco Feliciano, a fundamentalist who managed to be chosen president of the congress' Human Rights comission. LGBT's, blacks and feminists are in a giant hiss, since then (together with everyone who is not a fascist pig).

Every friend of mine who voted for her 'xingou muito no twitter' (stupid meme), i.e., put in every virtual community that they wouldn't vote for her anymore. It seems that she is exchanging young bobos (her main urban vote in 2010) for fundamentalist christians.

Bad move, IMO.

If she continues that way, my family may vote for her.

If I remember well what you tell about your family, they seem a perfect target for Dudu Beleza. Marina will probably take the poorer conservatives, if she maintain this course.

I was joking, they'll vote for Neves, even if they don't like him, for sure (one of my aunts may vote for Silva: she voted for her in the 1st round in 2010, then switched to Serra).

Oh, I've noticed. Nothing better than a good sarcasm with deadpan. This doesn't mean that we can't keep the joke and make the discussion serious, doesn't it?

[batmacumba]

I know that I shoud finish the Dudu Beleza narrative and pass on to Marina, but I'm on that lazy week after vacations. Maybe sunday.

[RodPresident]

Marina is getting signatures to get her party approved in evangelical churches.

[Peter the Lefty]

Any word on potential PSOL candidates?

[batmacumba]

Any word on potential PSOL candidates?

Not Yet. Any movement is still under surface.

[batmacumba]

So,

in 2002 this country turned upside down. Everyone I know either was turned into a radical leftist or wasn't so bothered if radical leftists changed the country radically. So it was quite a surprise for me when Lula took his 'Peace and Love Little Lula' persona and declared he would maintain the main economic foundations.
Well, he proved that time (and after) he is kind of a political genious. With that movement, he achieved two things:
- elected a freaking good share of the congress;
- accumulated a freking good amount of money in the national treasure.

The first achievement was important only on the long run, because he still didn't have a disciplinated amount of enough congressmen to pass the legislation he needed, so his chief-of staff, José Dirceu, started a payola system (or kept one that existed, according to some) and was caught on this corrupted scheme.
The second one allowed for the payment of foreign debt interests, which let the country with a big surplus of money to invest back.

This second scheme was devised by a team of politicians and economists, with Ciro Gomes playing an important role, and the PSB going to TV to defend and make people believe it could work. Given the party's history with academics, they were given the Ministry of Science and Tecnology and started a subtle but important change.
It must be noticed that, at this point, no one in the media was taking much attention to them.

While Garotinho's struggle with the press went on (SP elite was pissed off with his tentative of being the main rival to Lula, which, coupled with obscure schemes that surfaced along with the campain, made him the crook of preference for the media to beat a little), Lula and Arraes arranged for the creation of a new right-wing-but-aligned-with-the-government party, where they put a bunch of evangelical leaders, specially Bishop Marcelo Crivella, the political voice of the widespread Kingdom of God's Universal Church. Garotinho, made into the new national crook, started approaching Pr. Everaldo, a figure considered too radical even for other neopentecostals (Garotinho started to defend creationism) and, with this new party guaranteeing the support of the now strong religious politicians, was put aside.
In order to disapear politically with him, Arraes called for renewing membership of his party and simply didn't sign Garotinho's file, avoiding any news of expelling.

Also, he managed to put his trusted allies on key positions: the Secretary of Ports and the government managed eletrical corporation which deals with the energy generated by hidreletrics on the São Francisco River.
With this combo (Sc&Tech, Ports and energy on the NE) the old maverick prepared his last trump: building his grandson as the most strong state candidate this country had seen in a long time.