Clinton leads Giuliani, McCain in WV (Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

"Research shows West Virginia is tilting back toward blue for the 2008 presidential race."

Clinton 42, Giuliani 36
Clinton 41, McCain 34

The article mentions that the poll shows Obama in a "dead heat" with those two Republicans, but has no figures.

Oh, and there's also a Generic D v Generic R matchup: D 46, R 24.

Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates is a Republican firm.

[Flying Dog]

Probably a useless poll. But its still interesting since its a R poll.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Giuliani isn't going to win WV.

[Flying Dog]

Giuliani isn't going to win WV.

Even against Clinton?

[Gustaf]

He may well lose it. But he probably won't be the nominee anyway, so it's kind of moot...

[Conan]

"Research shows West Virginia is tilting back toward blue for the 2008 presidential race."

Clinton 42, Giuliani 36
Clinton 41, McCain 34

They should poll people who might be the republican nominee, like Romney and Thompson.

[HardRCafé]

Because there are no Republicans any more outside the South, y'all.

[Conan]

Because there are no Republicans any more outside the South, y'all.

Is that in response to my comment? Because I clearly listed Romney. And no, Giuliani doesnt have a chance.

[Tender Branson]

Giuliani isn't going to win WV.

Even against Clinton?

Let´s say: WV polls were wayyy off in 2004, with the last 5 polls predicting a Bush win by only 5%, while in the end he won by 13%. Even Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen showed Bush winning by just 8% and 6%. So I wouldn´t put much trust in this poll right now. It could also be that the "Clinton-brand" is working out in WV again in 2008, as WV was one of Bill Clintons best states in '92 and '96.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

West Virginia supports the war on terror and Giuliani's stance after 911 will give him the state at the end. Considering Rockefeller and Byrd didn't cut funding in the war authorization bill, I think the three Dems will find it difficult to win. But nevertheless, this poll is encouraging, southern OH is basically WV and I think this shows weakness in that state rather than WV.

Mitt Romney has faired poorly after NH and IA and find a cool reception once he surpasses those two states.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

See what I've been saying all along?

Not that this'll convince Walter that Giuliani would go over like a lead balloon in WV.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think if the GOP loses WV, they might as well pack it all in, because they probably will lose in a blowout.

[Tender Branson]

Again an updated map of all state polls combined so far (SUSA, Quinnipiac, R2000 etc.):

Giuliani vs. Clinton:

Giuliani: 171 EV
Clinton: 167 EV
Toss-Up: 41 EV

Expect CT (Quinnipiac) to flip back to Clinton soon, giving her an EV majority.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clearly the Dems are going to do better in MO and WV than the previous elections, but Giuliani isn't going to drag down the Republican ticket to cause panic for the GOP in WV. I think the GOP still thinks they are going to win WV. Clearly, WV is a battleground state, but it isn't lost for the GOP if Giuliani is the nominee.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Let´s say: WV polls were wayyy off in 2004,

No they weren't.

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Check the dates of those polls. Note that only one was done very close to the actual election.

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Mason-Dixon's last poll of WV was pretty good IMO. Look at the numbers, not just the leads.

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Neither would I. But then, I wouldn't put much trust in any poll released right now (nor would I put much trust in a poll by a partisan outfit).

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It's probably more due to the "D" next to her name. WV is like that.

[Gustaf]

Again an updated map of all state polls combined so far (SUSA, Quinnipiac, R2000 etc.):

Giuliani vs. Clinton:

Giuliani: 171 EV
Clinton: 167 EV
Toss-Up: 41 EV

Expect CT (Quinnipiac) to flip back to Clinton soon, giving her an EV majority.

You realize that with all the Western and Southern states not included this map clearly points to a Guliani victory? Almost all Democratic states are included whereas many Republican states are excluded. That said, Guliani is looking less and less likely to be the nominee so it doesn't help the GOP all that much.

[Sam Spade]

This poll has cobwebs on it.  Why was it released now and not in May?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This poll has cobwebs on it.  Why was it released now and not in May?

No idea. Maybe to damage one of the Republican primary candidates or something (best explanation I can think of...)

[Sam Spade]

This poll has cobwebs on it.  Why was it released now and not in May?

No idea. Maybe to damage one of the Republican primary candidates or something (best explanation I can think of...)

Considering that one wouldn't expect Giuliani to do that well in WV and McCain is already in sh**t-shape, that still doesn't really do it for me.  I would say Thompson, but they didn't poll him.

[Tender Branson]

Again an updated map of all state polls combined so far (SUSA, Quinnipiac, R2000 etc.):

Giuliani vs. Clinton:

Giuliani: 171 EV
Clinton: 167 EV
Toss-Up: 41 EV

Expect CT (Quinnipiac) to flip back to Clinton soon, giving her an EV majority.

You realize that with all the Western and Southern states not included this map clearly points to a Guliani victory? Almost all Democratic states are included whereas many Republican states are excluded. That said, Guliani is looking less and less likely to be the nominee so it doesn't help the GOP all that much.

Yeah sure I realize that. The May/June CT and WA polls look like outliers and I expect them to be in the Clinton column soon. NJ and PA are trending steadily away from Giuliani. OH remains a toss-up in the Quinnipiac poll and a 3% Clinton advantage according to SUSA. Clinton is within 1% in MO and within 3% in Kentucky (whatever that means). The map may result in a Giuliani win right now, but that doesn´t mean it has to be so when this months polls come out or later in August ...

[Gustaf]

If you look at the Gore v Bush race West Virginia is the only state on that map flipping to Democrat, while there are several going in the opposite direction. It does seem like Guliani is losing steam and could well lose the general against Clinton, but polls right now aren't really showing that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's with Washington?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What's with Washington?

There was a big batch of SUSA polls that showed Giuliani ahead there. Very likely a 1-in-20.

[Tender Branson]

What's with Washington?

There was a big batch of SUSA polls that showed Giuliani ahead there. Very likely a 1-in-20.

Indeed. If WA elected a pro-war Cantwell by about 20%, then Giuliani shouldn´t win this state too next year. I think the next polls will show Clinton in the lead, also in CT.