California and Texas Tipping Points

[Skill and Chance]

I think you have too many counties flipping in both cases.  The Republican path in CA involves closing either L.A. or the Bay Area from 70/30 back to 60/40 more than anything else.  The Democratic path in Texas involves massive Hispanic turnout and probably requires an oil crash.  So it would be mainly about shifting the populated parts of West Texas and the Houston/Dallas suburbs from 70/30 back to 60/40. 

[Skill and Chance]

In California it's especially hard to tell because the difference of winning LA county 60/40 or 70/30 is so much more massive than winning 2-3 other smaller counties.   

Texas is probably a bit more accurate though.

I'm just not sure about all those Austin exurbs flipping.  Similar to CA, it might be easier for a strong Dem to get to 60/40 in Harris, 65/35 in Dallas, and 70/30 in Travis than to win some of those near 60% Romney counties.