Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,092
Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
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« on: April 08, 2015, 06:25:11 AM » |
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This is what I have in mind for Texas. Our maps are identical except for the Austin metro. This map produces a 35,000-vote or so margin of victory for the Democrat. Keep in mind that the map's likelihood of becoming a shade lighter/darker (and also, the number of voters you need to close the gap) depends on whether you're projecting such a scenario from persuasion of existing voters or turning out new voters.
For instance:
D: 10,200 (53.96%)
R: 8,700 (46.04%)
Add 2,500 D (first-time) voters:
D: 12,700 (59.34%)
R: 8,700 (40.66%)
Flip 2,500 R voters to D:
D: 12,700 (67.19%)
R: 6,200 (32.81%)
Flipping somebody is worth twice as much as turning a new person out, and in some counties, will be a whole hell of a lot more realistic. In TX, a realistic scenario would be heavily focused on turning out first-time voters. In reality, it's always going to be a mixture of the two.
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