2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[publicunofficial]

TX-31: Dems have recruited decorated Air Force veteran MJ Hegar for this Safe R seat.

[publicunofficial]

TX-31: Dems have recruited decorated Air Force veteran MJ Hegar for this Safe R seat.

Very good choice. She seems like a very solid candidate, I think there is even a decent chance that she holds the R to single digits.

Also good insurance in case the map gets redrawn and TX-31 ends up as a competitive Austin-based seat.

[publicunofficial]

By the end of this cycle I'm going to be confused as hell as to which female Democrat military veteran is running in which district.

[publicunofficial]

Paul Davis launches campaign for KS-2; won't vote for Pelosi for Speaker.

http://www.kwch.com/content/news/Paul-Davis-running-for-congress-440546873.html

Honestly more Democrats should take up this strategy.

[publicunofficial]

Paul Davis launches campaign for KS-2; won't vote for Pelosi for Speaker.

http://www.kwch.com/content/news/Paul-Davis-running-for-congress-440546873.html

Honestly more Democrats should take up this strategy.

I dunno. I don't have an opinion one way or another, but if too many say that, then Democrats win a narrow majority and Pelosi needs their votes to become Speaker, you're looking at maybe Paul Ryan getting the most votes to become Speaker and we're all screwed again.

More likely if enough Democrats get elected running on the promise to not vote for Pelosi, the pressure for her to step down will be to much for even her to bear.

[publicunofficial]

Rossi's previous losses have nothing to do with his strength as a candidate for WA-08.

Rossi is almost certainly going to do strongly in the Sammamish/Issaquah area of the district, which is one of the areas D's need to maximize their share of the vote in in order to win the seat. That's why I have it as Lean R.

[publicunofficial]

Michigan House Democrats leader Rep. Tim Greimel (D - Troy) is in for MI-11

[publicunofficial]

Ben McAdams is officially in for UT-04

[publicunofficial]

I'm starting to put together my endorsements going into 2018, and I'm finding that the easiest way to find which Democrat to back in a given primary is to go to their website and find the 'Healthcare' issues tab.

Using phrases like "healthcare is a human right", "Medicare for all" = 👌👏👍👏👏👏

Using phrases like "access to affordable care", "We need to fix the ACA" = 🖕👐👎🚮

[publicunofficial]

NV-04: Leading Republican Stavros Anthony is dropping out, citing health concerns.

[publicunofficial]

IL-17: Mark Kleine (R) is dropping out. That's two semi-decent Republican recuits in vunerable D seats to call it quits this week.

[publicunofficial]

From NY Post: Nancy Pelosi is reportedly trying to recruit Lt. Gov Kathy Hochul to run for NY-27 against Chris Collins.

[publicunofficial]

https://theintercept.com/2018/01/23/dccc-democratic-primaries-congress-progressives/

Big piece in The Intercept hightling how the DCCC and Dem establishment groups are once again choosing terrible centrist candidates over good ones because they can fundraise better. Essentially the same stuff they did in 2006 that gave them an unworkable majority filled with business-friendly moderates that got decimated in 2010.

PA-16, MN-02, AZ-02, NV-03, TX-07, TX-21, and VA-02 are amomg those mentioned in the story. The PA-16 example is particularly egregious because 1] The left-leaning candidate is outraising the DCCC's choice, 2]The DCCC's choice spent record breaking amounts of money in 2016 to end up not ony underperforming Clinton but the 2014 D candidate. The Angie Craig campaign in MN-02 comes off as looking especially bad.

[publicunofficial]

https://theintercept.com/2018/01/23/dccc-democratic-primaries-congress-progressives/

Big piece in The Intercept hightling how the DCCC and Dem establishment groups are once again choosing terrible centrist candidates over good ones because they can fundraise better. Essentially the same stuff they did in 2006 that gave them an unworkable majority filled with business-friendly moderates that got decimated in 2010.

PA-16, MN-02, AZ-02, NV-03, TX-07, TX-21, and VA-02 are amomg those mentioned in the story. The PA-16 example is particularly egregious because 1] The left-leaning candidate is outraising the DCCC's choice, 2]The DCCC's choice spent record breaking amounts of money in 2016 to end up not ony underperforming Clinton but the 2014 D candidate.

Yeah, it's a pity that DCCC won't support stellar candidates like Tim Canova, Zephyr Teachout and Vincent Fort.

No instead they support Goldman Sachs CEOS, political insiders, and no one else.

There's a middleground somewhere surely.

[publicunofficial]

https://theintercept.com/2018/01/23/dccc-democratic-primaries-congress-progressives/

Big piece in The Intercept hightling how the DCCC and Dem establishment groups are once again choosing terrible centrist candidates over good ones because they can fundraise better. Essentially the same stuff they did in 2006 that gave them an unworkable majority filled with business-friendly moderates that got decimated in 2010.

PA-16, MN-02, AZ-02, NV-03, TX-07, TX-21, and VA-02 are amomg those mentioned in the story. The PA-16 example is particularly egregious because 1] The left-leaning candidate is outraising the DCCC's choice, 2]The DCCC's choice spent record breaking amounts of money in 2016 to end up not ony underperforming Clinton but the 2014 D candidate. The Angie Craig campaign in MN-02 comes off as looking especially bad.

Raising money doesn't prove someone is a good candidate. Candidates who raise more money lose all the time.

The DCCC is obviously backing the candidates they think have the best shot of winning, and whether they're right in every instance or not anyone who thinks they're conspiring to choose bad candidates on purpose to slight the party's left or whatever is living in lala land.

The DCCC is ran by members of congress, and every member of congress becomes massively more powerful if their party is in the majority. Do you really think Ben Ray Luján or whoever is saying "well, on the one hand I could be in the majority and wield massive amounts of power and influence every major bill as a top House Democrat, but on the other hand I really don't like those Bernie Bros." Oh please.

I'm about sick of hearing this nonsense from Our Revolution and co. It demonstrates an incredibly childish attitude toward politics in general to think that the only reason voters aren't picking your candidates is because of some shadowy establishment conspiracy. More likely the voters just don't like your candidates.

Also, spoiler alert, if you change nothing and just blame other people it doesn't make it terribly likely the voters will be picking your candidates next time around either.

I don't think they are purposely picking bad candidates, I think they are putting their thumbs on the scale for candidates that are friendly to the business interestests that supply the livelihood for Democratic consultants and advisors, and those candidates tend to be out of touch centrists who lose races.

Have you ever once thought that maybe Pelosi and co. are lying to you when they say they want universal healthcare, an end to money in politics, and fairer income inequality as much as they claim to?

[publicunofficial]

People seriously underestimate how much of an issue Kirkpatrick's carpetbagging really is. She has no appeal at all in Tucson and surrounding AZ-02, which is a wildly different district from AZ-01. Matiella is a local and she's a veteran, two things that the district should just love, on top of having a proven record of government service.

Sorry but I can't trust you. You are the same guys who sat out and grumbled about how Northam will lose because he was too conservative and not exciting enough for the base.
For all I know Kirkpatrick's carpetbagging is a thing only among Sandernistas and Justice Democrats.

Hey, pal, here's a thought: do me a favor and don't lump me in with "them". I predicted Northam+9 and wanted him to win even though he was too conservative for my tastes, because the fact is that any Democrat is better than any Republican.

Nope, for expressing an opinion against Dem leadership you are now a socialist bernie bro according to Landslide Loser. Welcome to the fold.

[publicunofficial]

NY-24: Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner is re-affirming she won't run; is instead considerung a Cuomo primary challenge.

https://t.co/pcGrWeyPTG?amp=1

[publicunofficial]

Realignment incoming. Blue.Wave imminent. This is the most GOP held open seats since going back to 1952.

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The Republican Party is finished real soon

Who unretired in May?

That might have been when Marino withdrew from his appointment or when Perlmutter dropped out of CO-GOV

[publicunofficial]

Devin Nunes won by a bigger margin than Steve King in 2016. It's gonna take a lot of work to even come close to ousting him.

Counterpoint: Devin Nunes was a relatively anonymous congressman in 2016.

[publicunofficial]

Does Blanco have a chance at statewide office in LA again?

0% chance. She was a horrible governor during Katrina.

She also has terminal cancer.

[publicunofficial]

Also I think nationalizing the race is somewhat okay when you're running against the 2nd or 3rd most powerful man in the nation.

I... have no idea what you're talking about! Bryce constantly rags on Ryan as a Trump stooge. He's "nationalizing" he race himself! Like do you want a medal because you hate people who live in coastal states? Congratulations.

I would've thought people would stop trying to have a legit argument with Bagel, the guy who thinks running a racist white Democrat in the South is a winning strategy.

Pretty sure if Bagel23 could choose, he'd run a racist white Democrat in every district.

[publicunofficial]

If Bryce really wanted to excite voters he'd rally with the moray eel like visage of Joe Manchin, not some popular handsome figure.

[publicunofficial]

Sort of surprisingly, Corey Lewandowski is doing a better job than the media of actually analyzing the 2018 midterms.

From Salon on Margaret Good's win:

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Yeah, unheard of for Democrats to win in Wisconsin and New Hampshire.
What a blathering idiot.

The mayor of Manchester had been a Republican since 2006, and the WI-10 is a deeply republican district.

Speaking of blathering idiots...

Thanks for the tip, hack.

"UHHH THANKS FOR CORRECTING ME MORON"

Why are you such a cock?

[publicunofficial]

Former MSNBC host Dylan Ratigan is looking into running for NY-21st https://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/story/35651/20180216/former-msnbc-host-dylan-ratigan-mulls-ny-21-run

That doesn't seem like the right candidate.

Since when do the Democrats care? They ran McGinty for PA-Sen, Emily Cain for ME-02, and Dan Malloy for CT-Gov and are about to run J.B. f**king Pritzker for IL-Gov.

All of those people have a rolodex of campaign donors or are personally rich, and none of them have a single radical idea in their heads.  That's the DCCC's definition of a perfect candidate.