Given that it is a midterm, her chances on holding on will be small.
But, given the House gerrymandering of IL, there is Bustos and Quigley and Duckworth, but no shoes to fill after Rauner or Kirk, for statewide office.
Not exactly true. Peter Roskam (R-IL6) could make an excellent Senate candidate. Adam Kinzinger, an Iraq veteran, could make a better one.
As for this race, Duckworth is an unproven candidate and ran behind President Obama in 2012 against the fatally-flawed Joe Walsh, a far easier opponent than Mitt Romney was for Obama. But Kirk is largely unproven as well. He defeated a corrupt opponent in 2010, barely, and right after the impeachment and removal of Gov. Rod Blagojevich, which cast a shadow on the state Democratic Party, not to mention that 2010 was a GOP wave year and right after the emergence of the Tea Party.
Kirk's approval numbers are going to take a hit. No way all the Suburban Dems who like him now are going to stick with him. He'll have to run the table downstate and in the collar counties while keeping the Democrat under 70% in Cook County. If Duckworth is the nominee, Kirk's path to victory includes tying her to state House Speaker Michael Madigan, whose approval ratings downstate are below those of Emperor Palpatine, and Blagojevich, for whom she once served in an appointed position. That'll keep downstate red if they buy it and possibly do the same with the collar counties. Remember that Pat Quinn only carried one county in 2014, Cook County. Illinois has 101 other counties, and a victorious Democrat probably needs to carry at least a couple more than just Cook. Some Democratic downstate counties that voted for Obama voted against Quinn by double-digit margins. Some of these were Democrats who don't like the state party, personified in "Boss Madigan", who's not known for caring about any of the 101 counties in Illinois that are not named "Cook".
I'm not sure about anyone else's chances against Kirk. The big name that nobody's mentioned is Rep. Dan Lipinski, a moderate Democrat (who voted against the ACA) from the north suburbs. He may start out ahead.
Look for Rauner to consider putting money in this race. Kirk has a very Rauner-esque ideological profile.
Bottom line: Kirk needs a Republican win at the top of the ticket by at least 2-3% (nationally) and to run an A+ campaign (or have his general election opponent flounder) in order to keep this seat.
