🇨🇦 2024 Canadian by-elections

[Hatman 🍁]

His main problem might be that his ward barely overlaps the riding.

How well known is he in the area? It seems he is quite popular in his district.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Milton and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex provincial by-elections have been called for May 2.

Interestingly, Crombie is not running in Milton. I guess she doesn't think she could win it?

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Close, but possible P.C gain

Fogo Island-Cape Freels
Blackmore, Dana (Liberal Party)   1463
Gill, Jim (New Democratic Party)   103
McKenna, Jim (Progressive Conservative Party)   1684

30/55 polls reporting

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Looking more like a P.C gain.

Blackmore, Dana (Liberal Party)   1802
Gill, Jim (New Democratic Party)   136
McKenna, Jim (Progressive Conservative Party)   2354

41/55 polls.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Not quite complete result, but certainly enough to call it a P.C gain.

Blackmore, Dana (Liberal Party) 2216
Gill, Jim (New Democratic Party) 165
McKenna, Jim (Progressive Conservative Party)3155

53/55 polls.

I.E I want to go out before the start of the 3rd period of the Penguins-Predators game.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Final

Blackmore, Dana (Liberal Party)   2244
Gill, Jim (New Democratic Party)   169
McKenna, Jim (Progressive Conservative Party)3290

[MaxQue]

Final

Blackmore, Dana (Liberal Party)   2244
Gill, Jim (New Democratic Party)   169
McKenna, Jim (Progressive Conservative Party)3290

PC 57.7% (+21.1%)
Liberals 39.3% (-21.8 )
NDP 3.0% (+0.7)

[Hatman 🍁]

Turnout was 56%, a 15 point increase from 2021(!) Only in Newfoundland...

Average swing was 21 points (Lib to PC)

Elections NL is now publishing poll by poll results on election night (though, they're keeping it rather hidden), joining the ranks of Alberta and PEI: https://www.voterview.ca/mvvframes/(S(zqsn1mbbebrgvdoy2qz2rnkl))/unofficialpollresultsfordistrict.aspx?cm=8500&ward=13

Looks like the Liberals won the eastern part of the District (Cape Freels down to Trinity), while the Tories won everything else. 

[AustralianSwingVoter]

This was Joey Smallwood's old stomping ground, under the former name of Bonavista North.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Turnout was 56%, a 15 point increase from 2021(!) Only in Newfoundland...

Average swing was 21 points (Lib to PC)

Elections NL is now publishing poll by poll results on election night (though, they're keeping it rather hidden), joining the ranks of Alberta and PEI: https://www.voterview.ca/mvvframes/(S(zqsn1mbbebrgvdoy2qz2rnkl))/unofficialpollresultsfordistrict.aspx?cm=8500&ward=13

Looks like the Liberals won the eastern part of the District (Cape Freels down to Trinity), while the Tories won everything else. 

This last election in Newfoundland and Labrador was the Covid election when things were shut down suddenly and the election day was postponed. Then, if I recall correctly, people had a short time to request a ballot to vote and there were also problems with what to do to request a ballot.

So, the 2021 election was very low turnout if not record low turnout in Newfoundland and Labrador.

[Hatman 🍁]

Turnout was 56%, a 15 point increase from 2021(!) Only in Newfoundland...

Average swing was 21 points (Lib to PC)

Elections NL is now publishing poll by poll results on election night (though, they're keeping it rather hidden), joining the ranks of Alberta and PEI: https://www.voterview.ca/mvvframes/(S(zqsn1mbbebrgvdoy2qz2rnkl))/unofficialpollresultsfordistrict.aspx?cm=8500&ward=13

Looks like the Liberals won the eastern part of the District (Cape Freels down to Trinity), while the Tories won everything else. 

This last election in Newfoundland and Labrador was the Covid election when things were shut down suddenly and the election day was postponed. Then, if I recall correctly, people had a short time to request a ballot to vote and there were also problems with what to do to request a ballot.

So, the 2021 election was very low turnout if not record low turnout in Newfoundland and Labrador.

This is true, but 56% is still a good turnout result.

[DL]

FWIW there have been two recent byelections in Newfoundland - one where a seemingly safe Tory seat went Liberal and another where a seemingly safe Liberal seat went Tory - go figure

[Hatman 🍁]

FWIW there have been two recent byelections in Newfoundland - one where a seemingly safe Tory seat went Liberal and another where a seemingly safe Liberal seat went Tory - go figure

It's proof that strength of candidacy still matters in Atlantic Canada. This was probably more of a generic ballot type race as opposed to the Liberal pick up in Conception Bay where they ran a star candidate. 

[jimros]

FWIW there have been two recent byelections in Newfoundland - one where a seemingly safe Tory seat went Liberal and another where a seemingly safe Liberal seat went Tory - go figure

It's proof that strength of candidacy still matters in Atlantic Canada. This was probably more of a generic ballot type race as opposed to the Liberal pick up in Conception Bay where they ran a star candidate. 

I think this only applies on islands in Atlantic Canada.

[Hatman 🍁]

FWIW there have been two recent byelections in Newfoundland - one where a seemingly safe Tory seat went Liberal and another where a seemingly safe Liberal seat went Tory - go figure

It's proof that strength of candidacy still matters in Atlantic Canada. This was probably more of a generic ballot type race as opposed to the Liberal pick up in Conception Bay where they ran a star candidate. 

I think this only applies on islands in Atlantic Canada.

Heh. Except, it's probably the strongest in Labrador, which is definitely not an island.

[jimros]

FWIW there have been two recent byelections in Newfoundland - one where a seemingly safe Tory seat went Liberal and another where a seemingly safe Liberal seat went Tory - go figure

It's proof that strength of candidacy still matters in Atlantic Canada. This was probably more of a generic ballot type race as opposed to the Liberal pick up in Conception Bay where they ran a star candidate. 

I think this only applies on islands in Atlantic Canada.

Heh. Except, it's probably the strongest in Labrador, which is definitely not an island.

You are right, I'm not sure how better to phrase this to make my point that local candidates in NB and the mainland of NS don't matter that much more than any other comparable part of the Canadian mainland, but in PEI, Cape Breton, and Newfoundland and Labrador they sure do.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yesterday there was a by-election for Red Deer City Council (at-large)

The race was basically a de-facto NDP vs UCP race, as the winner Chad Krahn was the constituency assistant to Red Deer South MLA Jason Stephan, while the runner-up, Jaelene Tweedle was the NDP candidate in Red Deer North last year.

Results:
Chad Krahn 2,512 (36.9%)
Jaelene Tweedle 2,355 (34.6%)
Buck Buchanan 479 (7.0%) - former city councillor and Wildrose candidate in 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

The Baie-Verte-Green Bay, NL provincial by-election has been called for May 27
Also, Pictou West, NS was recently called for May 21

[Poirot]

The Milton and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex provincial by-elections have been called for May 2.

Interestingly, Crombie is not running in Milton. I guess she doesn't think she could win it?

As I understand Lambton should stay PC but Milton is the one to watch for a PC vs Lib battle.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Milton and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex provincial by-elections have been called for May 2.

Interestingly, Crombie is not running in Milton. I guess she doesn't think she could win it?

As I understand Lambton should stay PC but Milton is the one to watch for a PC vs Lib battle.

Lambton-Kent-Middlesex is a super safe PC riding, but the real race will for second place. The Liberals haven't finished 2nd there since 2011, and that was when they had the power of incumbency (this area is ancestrally Liberal, back when they were more tolerant of socons). Federally, the Liberals typically finish in second, with the NDP only ever doing so in 2011.

If the polls are to believed (and given the riding's demographics, they should be taken with a grain of salt), Milton is a pure toss-up riding. But it's a must win for the Liberals, because it's the kind of seat they need to get if they want a majority. The riding is fairly ethnically diverse and is growing rapidly (which is why I don't trust the polls), so I'd imagine the Liberals should be able to pick it up. If they can't, it's an indication that Ford is still popular among immigrants.

[DL]

But it's a must win for the Liberals, because it's the kind of seat they need to get if they want a majority.

Never mind a majority - its the kind of seat they need to get if they even want to regain official party status! This was one of their near misses in 2022 when they only won 9 seats. They ought to be able to pick up Milton even if they just had a "dead cat bounce" and gained 10 seats

[toaster]

Did Bonnie ever take a position on the 413? Surely you would think that would be a major issue in this by-election given the proximity to the new highway, and it serving much of Milton.  Most people in Milton (of all stripes) want the highway.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Not looking good for the Liberals in Milton with 1/3 of the polls reporting.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Did Bonnie ever take a position on the 413? Surely you would think that would be a major issue in this by-election given the proximity to the new highway, and it serving much of Milton.  Most people in Milton (of all stripes) want the highway.

Doesn't look like she's taken a position on it since becoming leader. PCs have put out messaging that she's anti-413, but she hasn't said anything as leader. But as mayor, she spoke out against it in 2021, which is what the Tories are alluding to.

Avoiding the issue was probably the best play for the Milton byelection though. Taking a strong stance either way would just open up the Liberals to easy attacks on a losing issue. This is an issue where average suburbanites and environmentalists are opposed to each other, and Liberals need both in their column.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Not looking good for the Liberals in Milton with 1/3 of the polls reporting.

I was gonna ask, where are you getting results? Elections Ontario doesn't have it, nor Grenier