Who will control the Senate after 2018?

[IceSpear]

Republicans obviously.

[IceSpear]

Republicans, of course. In 2012 Democrats won everything feasible and then some, so 2018 will be dire. But 2020 will be banner year for them in Senate.....

Actually, they had a chance to win NV/AZ and some people thought NE as well, though that turned out to not be true. It would've been hilarious to see a Senate class with only 5 Republicans.

Banner year? I wouldn't really say that. Most seats the Republicans won in 2014 were in deep red territory that they'll hold easily in 2020. Democrats would be able to target CO/GA/IA/MT/NC and ME if Collins retires. Nowhere near as many potential targets as this year for instance, where Dems could plausibly net 10-12 seats if everything breaks their way (same for the GOP in 2018.) There's also not even any "gimme" seats, like IL this year, or SD/WV/MT in 2014.

[IceSpear]

Republicans will.  But we will get it back in 2020.

But what will happen in 2022?!

[IceSpear]

Republicans, of course. In 2012 Democrats won everything feasible and then some, so 2018 will be dire. But 2020 will be banner year for them in Senate.....

Actually, they had a chance to win NV/AZ and some people thought NE as well, though that turned out to not be true. It would've been hilarious to see a Senate class with only 5 Republicans.

Banner year? I wouldn't really say that. Most seats the Republicans won in 2014 were in deep red territory that they'll hold easily in 2020. Democrats would be able to target CO/GA/IA/MT/NC and ME if Collins retires. Nowhere near as many potential targets as this year for instance, where Dems could plausibly net 10-12 seats if everything breaks their way (same for the GOP in 2018.) There's also not even any "gimme" seats, like IL this year, or SD/WV/MT in 2014.

5 or 6 is enough for me to call it "banner year". And this year i see ony 1-2 "gimme" seats, and D+4  (5 at most) shift in Senate for 50-50 or (in best case for Democrats) 51-49

If you think Democrats could only gain 5 seats max, that means you're calling (presumably) McCain, Rubio, Blunt, Burr, and Portman 100% safe, which is ridiculous. They are all favorites as of now, but they're far from locks.

Unless you just meant your personal prediction, in which case I agree. But I was referring to the best case scenario for Democrats, not the median scenario.