Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[adma]

Again, it wasn't so much a poll fail as it was a huge last minute shift in voting intentions. Such a possibility could happen again, of course.

Maybe the biggest hint of any such current potential poll-fail/last-minute-shift is in the Leger poll showing the PCs at 30--just saying.

[Krago]

Again, it wasn't so much a poll fail as it was a huge last minute shift in voting intentions. Such a possibility could happen again, of course.

Maybe the biggest hint of any such current potential poll-fail/last-minute-shift is in the Leger poll showing the PCs at 30--just saying.

Except that adding another night of polling by EKOS pushed the NDP up by three points, and the Mainstreet poll done on Wednesday night shows the NDs at 44%

[lilTommy]

Another interesting note from the Mainstreet poll; only 32% believe the PCs will win and 29% believe the NDP will win, to me this make me think the NDP is starting to sink is a a viable alternative to the PCs more then the Wildrose... last minute shifts to the PCs could cause more WR and PC seats to go NDP, as I mentioned pages ago with only 30%s

[Krago]

After three weeks of mealy-mouthed Alberta pundits, one finally comes out and says it:

"The dynasty in Alberta will come to an end on Tuesday with the election of an NDP government, what seemed like the unlikeliest outcome, is now the only possible outcome."

- Quito Maggi, Mainstreet Technologies

[Krago]

Do you think that maybe Rachel Notley asked Naheed Nenshi to predict a PC minority?

[Hatman 🍁]

14% undecided. My guess is that few are NDP supporters. Even if every single one of them backed Wildrose though, they would still be one point below the NDP.

[DL]

Most people who are still undecided are people who will not vote at all

[RogueBeaver]

The dynasty's corporate arm, as represented by 5 CEO megadonors, just held a press conference where they acted perfectly to stereotype.

[Hatman 🍁]

Most people who are still undecided are people who will not vote at all

That's not what happened in 2012.

[Boston Bread]

Never change, AB Greens.
http://bendubois.ca/election1.html

[DL]

Most people who are still undecided are people who will not vote at all

That's not what happened in 2012.

I'm not so sure about that. I think that in 2012 there were people who were "soft Wildrose" voters who shifted back to the PCs at the last minute - I think the number of people who would have told a pollster they were genuinely undecided right to the end was very small. What I notice in polls is that particularly when you get to the final days of a campaign and DK/NA is down to 10-15% (if that) the people who say they are undecided also a. either did not vote in the previous election or cannot remember who they voted for b. don't know where their polling station is c. don't know what leader they like best and don't know what issue matter most to them...d. they also often cannot name the leaders of the parties - it all adds up to the profile of a person who won't vote but due to "social desirability bias" will not admit to it.

In a good year, turnout in Alberta provincial elections if about 50% - and yet you never get anywhere near 50% of survey respondents saying they won't vote. In fact even if you add together people who say they are less than 100% certain that they will vote and people who say they are totally undecided on who to vote for - you are still no where near the 50% of eligible voters who will not vote.

[Boston Bread]

What makes the "Too Close to Call" simulator so different seat wise? 538 and Earl both show NDP being inefficient even with large leads, but Bryan's simulator gives me 70-80 NDP seats when I enter in recent poll results!

[Hatman 🍁]

Most people who are still undecided are people who will not vote at all

That's not what happened in 2012.

I'm not so sure about that. I think that in 2012 there were people who were "soft Wildrose" voters who shifted back to the PCs at the last minute - I think the number of people who would have told a pollster they were genuinely undecided right to the end was very small. What I notice in polls is that particularly when you get to the final days of a campaign and DK/NA is down to 10-15% (if that) the people who say they are undecided also a. either did not vote in the previous election or cannot remember who they voted for b. don't know where their polling station is c. don't know what leader they like best and don't know what issue matter most to them...d. they also often cannot name the leaders of the parties - it all adds up to the profile of a person who won't vote but due to "social desirability bias" will not admit to it.

In a good year, turnout in Alberta provincial elections if about 50% - and yet you never get anywhere near 50% of survey respondents saying they won't vote. In fact even if you add together people who say they are less than 100% certain that they will vote and people who say they are totally undecided on who to vote for - you are still no where near the 50% of eligible voters who will not vote.

Also factor in that non voters are far less likely to do political polls in the first place.

What makes the "Too Close to Call" simulator so different seat wise? 538 and Earl both show NDP being inefficient even with large leads, but Bryan's simulator gives me 70-80 NDP seats when I enter in recent poll results!

Let's not confuse Grenier with the great Nate Silver! I'm a bit disappointed in Bryan though, usually he makes good projections. My numbers are a bit out of date now, but stay tuned on election day. Could be a very orange map.

[Boston Bread]

Whoops, I of all people shouldn't be getting those two numbers confused...
Anyhow, of the 4 models I follow, 308, Teddy, and Bryan all are showing NDP majorities now. Join the party, Hatman! And it's MayDay, how fitting!
Colour me a beliver in the Notley revolution now.

[Boston Bread]

Btw, since I'm away from home I don't have my seat model with me. But I'll be back just in time to give it one run before the election. Numbers and map will be posted on the morning of the 4th if all goes to plan.

[Krago]

Has anyone heard if Forum is planning to release a last-minute poll?

[cp]

Predictably, and yet incredibly, the Globe endorses the PCs

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/editorials/for-alberta-jim-prentice-is-the-best-choice/article24211771/

[Ebsy]

Those in the comments section are none too pleased.

[Hatman 🍁]

Reading the comments section on any Alberta election news piece is always a nice treat. Another reason why this election is so unreal.

[RogueBeaver]

Corporate Division shows their face, promptly faceplants by saying that voters haven't thought thoroughly enough & NDP policies may prevent them from donating to kids' hospitals or U of A.

[Marokai Backbeat]

The reaction to the NDP lead would be sad if it weren't so predictable.

[Ebsy]

Corporate Division shows their face, promptly faceplants by saying that voters haven't thought thoroughly enough & NDP policies may prevent them from donating to kids' hospitals or U of A.

Guillotine pls

[136or142]

Most people who are still undecided are people who will not vote at all

That's not what happened in 2012.

I'm not so sure about that. I think that in 2012 there were people who were "soft Wildrose" voters who shifted back to the PCs at the last minute - I think the number of people who would have told a pollster they were genuinely undecided right to the end was very small. What I notice in polls is that particularly when you get to the final days of a campaign and DK/NA is down to 10-15% (if that) the people who say they are undecided also a. either did not vote in the previous election or cannot remember who they voted for b. don't know where their polling station is c. don't know what leader they like best and don't know what issue matter most to them...d. they also often cannot name the leaders of the parties - it all adds up to the profile of a person who won't vote but due to "social desirability bias" will not admit to it.

In a good year, turnout in Alberta provincial elections if about 50% - and yet you never get anywhere near 50% of survey respondents saying they won't vote. In fact even if you add together people who say they are less than 100% certain that they will vote and people who say they are totally undecided on who to vote for - you are still no where near the 50% of eligible voters who will not vote.

And a lot of previous provincial liberals voted P.C. I don't know if that had been reflected in polls before election day though.

[DL]

There is a myth that in 2012 the PCs won by getting vast numbers of Liberal and NDP voters to switch to the PCs, but the polling data doesn't back this up at all. If you look at polls over the course of the 2012 campaign the Lib and NDP vote was in the 10-12 range right from the moment the writ was dropped and never really budged. The NDP ended up going up 1% compared to 2008 and went from 9% to 10%. The Alberta Liberal support had already collapsed before the campaign even began from the 26% they had in 2008 to about 10%. I think that what happened was that two thirds of 2008 Liberal voters shifted to Wildrose at the start of the campaign because they just wanted to kick the PCs out and saw the Wildrose as being best positioned to do it. Those people ended up having second thoughts in the end , but they had already abandoned the liberals before the campaign had even begun.

[toaster]

There is a myth that in 2012 the PCs won by getting vast numbers of Liberal and NDP voters to switch to the PCs, but the polling data doesn't back this up at all. If you look at polls over the course of the 2012 campaign the Lib and NDP vote was in the 10-12 range right from the moment the writ was dropped and never really budged. The NDP ended up going up 1% compared to 2008 and went from 9% to 10%. The Alberta Liberal support had already collapsed before the campaign even began from the 26% they had in 2008 to about 10%. I think that what happened was that two thirds of 2008 Liberal voters shifted to Wildrose at the start of the campaign because they just wanted to kick the PCs out and saw the Wildrose as being best positioned to do it. Those people ended up having second thoughts in the end , but they had already abandoned the liberals before the campaign had even begun.

It's not just since 2008 though.  I think it's a common understanding that progressives in Alberta have backed the PC party for some time now to stop anything further right from governing.