Stat noise or are we seeing pro-PC strategic voting emerging?
The Liberals are polling at about half of what they got in 2008 when they had something like 26% of the vote province-wide...but their vote collapsed before the election was even called. Some of it was probably a generic anti-PC vote that shifted to the Wild Rose and some of it probably went to the PC when Redford won the leadership since she is a Liberal masquerading as a PC in the first place. I think that at 10-13% the Liberals are at their floor and are unlikely to go any lower. The NDP is consistently up a bit from the 8.5% they got in 2008 and are likely to get 11-12% this time. They will almost certainly get more seats than the Liberals (who may get wiped off the map). I don't see NDP voters going PC at all.
The one thing that COULD still happen is that if enough doubts are raised about Danielle Smith - some WRA votes might go back to the PCs or to a seemingly safer anti-PC party like the Libs or NDP.