Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[ag]

Cool it.

Pretty hard to stay cool here It is the old intra-tribal warfare

[ag]

Does Balad even try among the Jews, post-Zionist or not? Have you ever seen a Jew who voted for them?

[ag]

The two sides hate each other, but that hasn't precluded Likud-Labor coalitions in the past...

If I were deciding for Labor, and such a coalition were for some reason desirable, I would propose, as a compromise, that the PM be anybody other than the two leaders. Netaniyahu as the PM has broken too many partners.  Make him the tourism minister.

[ag]

The two sides hate each other, but that hasn't precluded Likud-Labor coalitions in the past...

If I were deciding for Labor, and such a coalition were for some reason desirable, I would propose, as a compromise, that the PM be anybody other than the two leaders. Netaniyahu as the PM has broken too many partners.  Make him the tourism minister.

To what extent is Likud governed by Netanyahu's personality? I would imagine that that might pose a problem.

I was jesting.

[ag]

So, in the latest polls the Joint List is starting to inch towards 13 seats.  Any chance they get 14?

[ag]

Also, apparently Zionist Union waffled on Zoabi, saying they'l support whatever the committee decides.

They voted to ban her in the CEC. Both she and Marzel are, in fact, banned. The appeal goes to the High Court.

[ag]

So, in the latest polls the Joint List is starting to inch towards 13 seats.  Any chance they get 14?

14 is possible, it depends mostly on turnout, but I wouldn't trust the polls in terms of gauging this.

It would be a true poetic justice if the Liberman crowd gets 3.24% with their elimination resulting in extra seat for the Arabs

[ag]

File this under "so horrendous it is hilarious"
http://972mag.com/watch-the-most-anti-semitic-israeli-cartoon-ever-made/102698/
I think we've hit peak irony...

Israelis hate the Jews. What else is new?

Even before Israel was founded they appealed to British authorities to ban Yiddish-language press. Frankly, it is extremely hard for me to see the reasons for the rosy view of my fellow diaspora Jews of this nation of uniformed ispravniks and beard-cutters.

[ag]

Zoabi and Marzel reinstated by the Supreme Court.

[ag]

Haaretz runs an interesting poll showing 70% of Arab voters care more about economic matters than the conflict. Over 60% thinks the joint list should be a part of the coalition (28% say in any, 30% say only with Herzog, and 3% say only with Bibi). Most rate the performance of Arab MKs low.

Voting wise the Arab voters divide as such:
66.9% - Joint list
5.7% - Labour
4.3% - Meretz
2.4% - Likud
Liberman, Kachlon, Taleb A'snaa party - all 1.2%
the rest are marginal

The poll also indicates the % of voters will rise to 62.4%

Would be interesting to see those numbers sans the Druze.

[ag]

The poll also indicates the % of (Arab) voters will rise to 62.4%

What was the Arab turnout in the last election and what is the comparable turnout estimate among Jewish Israelis?

Overall it was 63.7%, but only about 56% among the Arabs (so, among the Jews it must have been a bit over 64%).

[ag]

The poll also indicates the % of (Arab) voters will rise to 62.4%

What was the Arab turnout in the last election and what is the comparable turnout estimate among Jewish Israelis?

Overall it was 63.7%, but only about 56% among the Arabs (so, among the Jews it must have been a bit over 64%).

The 63.7% was for 2009, in 2013 it was up to 67.77% (and a little higher for Jews).

Sorry, my fault. But it was still only estimated 56% for Arabs. In 2009 it had been  53%.

[ag]

Haaretz runs an interesting poll showing 70% of Arab voters care more about economic matters than the conflict. Over 60% thinks the joint list should be a part of the coalition (28% say in any, 30% say only with Herzog, and 3% say only with Bibi). Most rate the performance of Arab MKs low.

Voting wise the Arab voters divide as such:
66.9% - Joint list
5.7% - Labour
4.3% - Meretz
2.4% - Likud
Liberman, Kachlon, Taleb A'snaa party - all 1.2%
the rest are marginal

The poll also indicates the % of voters will rise to 62.4%

The more interesting finding of the poll is, that if only those Arabs who say they will vote for the Joint list do so, this will ammount to 12.4 seats. Given that, at least, a few Jews will vote for it as well, this is pretty much certain to give them 13 seats. And that is not even counting on any of the undecideds breaking their way - might get to 14. It would be interesting if the Joint List comes out the third largest slate to get in.

In fact, if one thinks about it, the 66.9% number is staggering. Without the Druze this would be close to 70%. Of those who have decided how to vote this is well over three quarters.  Israeli Arab community, that back in 1970s and even 1980s overwhelmingly voted for mainstream parties is incerasingly seceding into its own polity.

[ag]

The overwhelmingly voted for mainstream parties due to Labour cheap tricks with the satellite parties and those collapsed by the 70s. The rest of the vote was a split between Mapam and the communists who became the largest group since the mid 70s. Since then the rise of Islamism and secular nationalism grew to the current point that Hadash are being overthrown in all their traditional strongholds.

Aside from the fact that Mapam/Meretz IS a mainstream party, there is a bit of a problem with that narrative in that Hadash has never been historically that much stronger than they are now.

Hadash performance since 1977 has ranged between 3 and 5 seats - and, arguably, in the past the Jewish vote provided a greater share of those than it does now. In fact, aside from the 1977, the only time Hadash got to 5 was in coalition with Balad (in 1996).  Hadash itself, probably, now gets its highest ever share of the Arab vote - wherever those people voting for the Arab parties came from, they did not come from Hadash.

[ag]

The change in the Arab vote started in the late 80's and was basically done by the 99 election, so it is even shorter than ag's post insinuates. However, there hasn't been much movement in the last 15 years (other than between the Arab parties).

Hm. Are you sure you want to use the word "insinuate"? I think I was pretty openly stating what I was stating - and you seem to agree with me on the substance (as, of course, I would, mostly, agree with you on the timeframe).  I know, we have very different views of Israeli politics, but I still have a hard time to see what exactly you are insinuating with your "insinuate"

[ag]

The change in the Arab vote started in the late 80's and was basically done by the 99 election, so it is even shorter than ag's post insinuates. However, there hasn't been much movement in the last 15 years (other than between the Arab parties).

Hm. Are you sure you want to use the word "insinuate"? I think I was pretty openly stating what I was stating - and you seem to agree with me on the substance (as, of course, I would, mostly, agree with you on the timeframe).  I know, we have very different views of Israeli politics, but I still have a hard time to see what exactly you are insinuating with your "insinuate"

I thought you were insinuating that the change in the Arab voting pattern towards Arab parties is a still ongoing phenomenon (I thought this because of your use of the word increasingly in the present tense), whereas I disagreed by saying that it was really more of a single decade event that was done by 1999.

But as for your argument with Hnv, I agree with you, the numbers clearly back you up.

I was, of course, pretty clear about the 70s and 80s as being the time when Arabs voted for the Zionist parties. Still, I did not insinuate, but stated that the process is, in a very significant sense, continuing. Up until now a sizeable Arab vote went for Hadash, which, though non-Zionist, is a bicommunal party with a notable Jewish core. By forcing Hadash into the Arab coalition, the new electoral law did further the process of communal separation (Dov Khenin's and Avraham Burg's attempts at slowing that  notwithstanding).

I have been quite clear about this before and I am quite clear about this here. What, exactly, was I insinuating?

[ag]

So, I found the full lists of candidates on the Election commission website. Do not read Hebrew, so google.translate is my guide, and google translate actually translates some names

Still, a few observations. First, there is an Arab List (so, in fact, designated oficially), which is NOT the Joint list. Not good.

Second, more interesting. There are, actually, quite a few Jewish - or, at least, non-Arab names on the Joint List. None of them (besides Khenin) are likely to be in the Knesset immediately - but at least one is high up enough to be plausibly promoted in case of a few resignations. So, this is what is there:

8. Boris Dov Khenin
18. Jonas Waal
20. Leah Tsemel Warszawski
21. Noah Levy
24. Livnat
43. Pedro Goldfarb
58. Gerardo Leibner
67 Efraim Davidi
73. Edna Zaritsky
77. Kevorkian (an Armenian, obviously)
99. Michael Warszawski
114. Tamar Guzanski (!!)

There must be more - but a few names have been so well translated, that they are impossible to understand. Perhaps some of the Hebrew or Arabic speakers here could help?

[ag]

What's so weird about Tamar Gozansky? She's a former Hadash MK from the 90s. It's very common for former MKs to be given ceremonial spaces in the hundred and teens.

I am a little bit surprised there are two more Jews in the top 20 though. Since a lot of seats in the teens are people who plan on resigning half way through their term as part of rotation, it's possible these Jews might get in if someone dies or resigns.

Nothing weird. I am simply bowing my head to the great freedom fighter.

[ag]

Aren't you a neoliberal though?

I am a liberal.

[ag]

Just think it's ironic that "THE great FF" for you is a commie

OTOH there's not doubt that Tamar Gozansky is a great FF.

This is EXACTLY, what I cannot forgive the State of Israel. Imagine: making me admire a commie!

[ag]

Just think it's ironic that "THE great FF" for you is a commie

OTOH there's not doubt that Tamar Gozansky is a great FF.

This is EXACTLY, what I cannot forgive the State of Israel. Imagine: making me admire a commie!

I don't follow this statement at all. The State of Israel does not need forgiveness for making you admire the HP Tamar Gozansky -- you did that on your own!

Well, I guess, there are many things you cannot follow. Hard to explain, really: you either do come to this yourself, or not.

[ag]

Just think it's ironic that "THE great FF" for you is a commie

OTOH there's not doubt that Tamar Gozansky is a great FF.

This is EXACTLY, what I cannot forgive the State of Israel. Imagine: making me admire a commie!

I don't follow this statement at all. The State of Israel does not need forgiveness for making you admire the HP Tamar Gozansky -- you did that on your own!

Well, I guess, there are many things you cannot follow. Hard to explain, really: you either do come to this yourself, or not.

To sympathy for professional thieves and terror? I certainly hope I don't anytime soon

Please identify what and from whom was stolen by Tamar Guzansky, and also in which acts of terror was she personally involved, or else I would have to consider you a bullshootter.

[ag]

So, she never, to the best of your knowledge, stole anything from anyone. Nor, for that matter, did the party she belonged to - though they might do that under certain circumstances. Nevertheless, in your definition, they are "thieves". If there is a definition of bullshyte, this is it.

You do not need to lecture me on Communism - I have been an anti-communist since before you were born. However, when God created Israel, he took three characteristics: 1) Jewishness, 2) basic human decency, and 3) supporting anybody but the Communists in Israel - and ruled that nobody can possess more than two out of three of these. Naturally, this puts me into a bind.

[ag]

Watching two ex-Soviet Jews argue is never a good idea (speaking as someone whose mother is an ex-Soviet Jew.) This is not proving an exception to the rule.

Just drop the "ex-Soviet", and you will be right

[ag]

So, she never, to the best of your knowledge, stole anything from anyone. Nor, for that matter, did the party she belonged to - though they might do that under certain circumstances. Nevertheless, in your definition, they are "thieves". If there is a definition of bullshyte, this is it.

You do not need to lecture me on Communism - I have been an anti-communist since before you were born. However, when God created Israel, he took three characteristics: 1) Jewishness, 2) basic human decency, and 3) supporting anybody but the Communists in Israel - and ruled that nobody can possess more than two out of three of these. Naturally, this puts me into a bind.

So can an Arab support anyone he/she wants? And if so, does this apply to the Druze?

Yes, of course. Who are we to question the Wisdom of His Law?