Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread

[King of Kensington]

Turnout wouldn't have surged past 60% if Ford wasn't on the ballot.

It may have looked a bit more like the 2003 race, where the working class on the city's periphery wasn't particularly excited about either Miller or Tory.  In that race, Tory did especially well among the wealthy (as he did this time), while Miller dominated the core and did very well for a progressive candidate among wealthy voters.  Chow probably would have done similarly well as Miller in the core, but probably not as well as he did in Forest Hill, North Toronto, Leaside, the Kingsway, etc.  I don't know if Chow could have made up for that by getting out more of the working class and immigrant vote.

[DL]

Miller also did OK in the suburbs and won some wards in Etobicoke and Scarborough and came close in a few more in 2003.

[King of Kensington]

Miller was a Harvard-educated Bay St. lawyer so he probably had more appeal among the affluent.  As I said, Chow would have had to have out-polled Miller in Scarborough, Weston, Rexdale etc.

[lilTommy]

Miller was a Harvard-educated Bay St. lawyer so he probably had more appeal among the affluent.  As I said, Chow would have had to have out-polled Miller in Scarborough, Weston, Rexdale etc.

Exactly; Fords hardcore wealthier, whiter contingent would have stayed home i think, they are loyal to the brand name and Tory is elitist to them, I think chow would have worked extra hard in those wards that Miller won to get their vote and i think many would have gone her way... but the turnout would have been in the 30's and that would have helped her.
Miller won Wards 1 in Etobicoke, 8&9 in North York, 11 in York and 42, 35 & 36 in Scarborough 
17 (Toronto but older, Italian, Latin neighbourhoods) all won by Fords... this year EXCEPT 35&36 won by Tory. Miller also won 15, 21 and 22 those are those wealthier educated socially liberal areas that went en masse Tory.
Chow might have wont all these additional wards (15,21,22 maybe...) but it would have been a much more policy directed campaign and Chow's had Tory beat on that.

[King of Kensington]

Chow might have wont all these additional wards (15,21,22 maybe...) but it would have been a much more policy directed campaign and Chow's had Tory beat on that.

I think you mean Ward 16.  Ward 15 is more working class and lower income, and includes the Oakwood-Vaughan Rd. area and Lawrence Heights.  It voted for Miller in 2003 and a Ford both times.  Until this election, it was the bellweather ward.

[Krago]

Here are some poll maps from the Windsor Mayoralty race printed in today's Windsor Star:
http://blogs.windsorstar.com/news/who-voted-for-dilkens

[King of Kensington]

The Fords appear to have accomplished something I can't think of having been accomplished elsewhere in the Western democracies: a multi-racial, right-wing populist backlash movement.  

[Hatman 🍁]

Canada truly is a beautiful mosaic, isn't it?

[Citizen Hats]

Canada truly is a beautiful mosaic, isn't it?

I'll take the occasional Doug Ford over the immigrant bashing competition found in many European capitals

[adma]

Yeah, Ford Nation is the inverse of Pim Fortuyn framing far-right politics as a glam hipster thing...

[King of Kensington]

Tory won with a "Bloomberg" type constituency of largely affluent voters.  The Chow campaign just seemed confused, not sure if they wanted to resurrect the Miller coalition or trying to take more of a left-populist "De Blasio" approach.

[DL]

The Fords appear to have accomplished something I can't think of having been accomplished elsewhere in the Western democracies: a multi-racial, right-wing populist backlash movement.  

Its a very good point. For all of the horrible things about the Ford phenomenon, they have never pandered to anti-immigrant sentiments (unless you count Ford saying that "orientals work like dogs") and they haven't been particularly big on law and order either (esp. what with Rob Ford's well documented links to drug gangs etc...)

[King of Kensington]

It's remarkable though that they are the party of choice for "angry white males", racists etc. and at the same time appeal to racial minorities, immigrants, people in public housing etc.

Most of the ethnic groups they've stereotyped or used epithets against seem to have voted for the Fords, with the exception of the Jewish community which categorically rejected them in this election. 

[cp]

I know it's not an ethnic community per se, but the LGBT community has been the target of quite a bit of ire from the Fords. The level of invective, the casual bigotry, and code-worded slander is precisely the same kind of rhetoric used by the right-wing racist populists elsewhere (who also, for the record, disdain LGBT people).

[Hatman 🍁]

I know it's not an ethnic community per se, but the LGBT community has been the target of quite a bit of ire from the Fords. The level of invective, the casual bigotry, and code-worded slander is precisely the same kind of rhetoric used by the right-wing racist populists elsewhere (who also, for the record, disdain LGBT people).

It wouldn't be right wing populism without some sort of bigotry. (We all have head the Fords say non-PC things, but I think minorities in Toronto aren't offended by it, because they see it as humourous).

[lilTommy]

Tory won with a "Bloomberg" type constituency of largely affluent voters.  The Chow campaign just seemed confused, not sure if they wanted to resurrect the Miller coalition or trying to take more of a left-populist "De Blasio" approach.

Chow's campaign started as Miller2.0 but then changed into a DeBlasio-esk campaign.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yawn...



Maguire didn't even win his home poll in Kars.

[King of Kensington]

I know it's not an ethnic community per se, but the LGBT community has been the target of quite a bit of ire from the Fords. The level of invective, the casual bigotry, and code-worded slander is precisely the same kind of rhetoric used by the right-wing racist populists elsewhere (who also, for the record, disdain LGBT people).

That's for sure.  It's no coincidence that Ford's lowest share of the vote was in the city's "gayest" ward.

[DL]

That's for sure.  It's no coincidence that Ford's lowest share of the vote was in the city's "gayest" ward.

About two thirds of the electorate in the city's "gayest ward" is actually not in the gay area, its in the fabulously wealthy, old money enclave of Rosedale - where I suspect John Tory would have had over 90% of the vote.

[King of Kensington]

No, the majority of Ward 27 lives south of Bloor.  The city-designated neighborhood of Rosedale-Moore Park has a population of 20,000 and maybe another 5,000 in Yorkville and thereabouts.  KWT would not have been elected councillor in the first place if Rosedale made up a majority of the electorate. 

[lilTommy]

But, in Rosedale-Moore Park I bet Tory won 70-80% and i'm being conservative there.
Toronto's ward 27 is home to the Gay Village BUT ward 28 and 30 have significant gay populations, in fact the whole old city is pretty diverse when it comes to LGBT, large numbers in most DT wards but in those two in particular (older, more professional in Cabbagetown and St. Lawrence in ward28 and Riverdale/Leslieville in ward 30) arguably have the most spill over. Taking a look at those two removes the old money Rosedale that sku's centre-right/Liberal to give you a better idea of how overall LGBT voted...
28 - Tory 46%, Chow 37%
30 - Tory 43%, Chow 42%
... basically LGBT voted for anyone but Ford and it depended on more then just being LGBT. Speaking personally, oh my friends, acquaintances who are also LGBT, it was about 50-50, maybe 60-40 Chow-Tory.

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, I remember recall seeing data somewhere that put the highest LGBT population in TC (about 25% I believe), with Danforth and Trinity-Spadina coming next.

I agree that a roughly 50/50 split between Chow and Tory sounds about right.

[EPG]

I guess that in the most cosmopolitan city in the most socially-progressive country in North America (perhaps the entire Americas), racial minorities are eventually going to vote like traditional, white minority ethnic groups.

[Hatman 🍁]

Only a matter of time before they start doing so on the federal and provincial levels.

Interesting that these immigrant groups had no problem voting for the party with a lesbian leader.

[Boston Bread]

Only a matter of time before they start doing so on the federal and provincial levels.

Assuming immigrants start voting like whites, these voters are still more urban than whites at large. Wouldn't the issues that make urban whites vote left still make them lean left too? Social issues aren't a permanent cure for CPC since their relevance fades over time. Even then identity politics still favour Liberals more than other parties among immigrants.